• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Webberweather53 said:
At least if it happens again you have a couple days lead time instead of the night before.
Click to expand...
Hey Eric could you lend some insight into the difference between the 3km, 12km, 32km precip fields. The 3km is the only one seeming to pickup on large surface reflections over the region. Is the 3km the highest resolution? Could the resolution be the reason the GFS shows a precip field similar to the 12km when in reality there should be a larger precip field? Thanks in advance as always
 
Webberweather53 said:
At least if it happens again you have a couple days lead time instead of the night before.
Click to expand...

What’s interesting is we essentially have one day lead time for preparedness given today was a holiday for many. Small window tomorrow night into Wed morning to warn folks and brine before everyone’s out and about. Interesting couple of days ahead.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
What’s interesting is we essentially have one day lead time for preparedness given today was a holiday for many. Small window tomorrow night into Wed morning to warn folks and brine before everyone’s out and about. Interesting couple of days ahead.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
We went to the store today and got food and melting salt just in case. To.orrow might be a madhouse.
 
Spurs up said:
I can tell you now national weather service here in CAE will not bite on this they will wait till frozen precip is falling then send out a warning/ advisory
Click to expand...
Lol I know exactly what you mean. They are extremely conservative
 
Way lighter precip field on the RGEM. Not very impressive at all.
 
Here's the last panel from the 18z RGEM
prateptype.us_se.png
 
One of my local mets today at 12 slightly hinted that something could possibly be brewing, but didn't go into any details. I'm starting to feel confident that my nearly eight year streak of not receiving one inch of snow is about to end.
 
RGEM looks pretty good, not as good as NAM or 3KM nam, phases a bit later.
 
RGEM total wise, doesn't look quite as impressive as the NAM. Barely makes it to CAE
 
We really need to see other models come on board tonight. Latest RGEM gives me an inch as opposed to a foot+. Getting nervous about the NAM way over-amping this system. I'm not ready to bite yet until certain other models are showing me more than a half inch. The SREFS are usually useless so I'm not including those.
 
I get the feeling that if the short range models begin to back off or go even slightly back East tonight then that's likely a sign, an eventually would meet somewhere with the Euro. But if they stay the same or keep going West then i really think the short range models will lead the way here. Someone has to budge. Will it be the Euro/GFS or the short range models? The golden question.
 
18z GFS sticks to its guns...wont happen this run


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I definitely would put a lot more stock on the mesoscale models like the NAM and RGEM in a situation like this where resolving convection matters a lot in the forecast and none of the globals are capable of doing it. I just don't think people realize how much these solutions are capable of differing even at this range in a setup like this.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I definitely would put a lot more stock on the mesoscale models like the NAM and RGEM in a situation like this where resolving convection matters a lot in the forecast and none of the globals are capable of doing it. I just don't think people realize how much these solutions are capable of differing even at this range in a setup like this.
Click to expand...
I wonder what models they mets went with before the Jan 2000 storm.
 
Robert West said:
RGEM total wise, doesn't look quite as impressive as the NAM. Barely makes it to CAE
Click to expand...

And those large changes are based directly by 500mb and a slower phase. Timing and amplification is everything here. We had the RGEM closing the lead wave off, teasing a very big SE snowstorm, it opened back up, and was too late.
 
If I were a betting man, I'd go with the RGEM. NAM likely over-amping this and the globals are under-amping this. As Alan(RaleighWx) also noted in a tweet, the arctic kicker dropping down is going to funnel in too much dry air in the mid-levels and cause a sharp cut-off in the SE.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I wonder what models they mets went with before the Jan 2000 storm.
Click to expand...
Well virtually non of the models back then even had anything 48 hours out, in the case study analysis I performed on the event earlier this semester I think I the higher res models caught on just a split second sooner than the globals but by then it was almost too late. While we have come a ways since that time I definitely think the high res models are the way to go. The coarser global NWP have almost unanimously shifted west over the past few days apart from the NAVGEM which was the western outlier from the onset
 
Shawn said:
And those large changes are based directly by 500mb and a slower phase. Timing and amplification is everything here. We had the RGEM closing the lead wave off, teasing a very big SE snowstorm, it opened back up, and was too late.
Click to expand...
I guess if this was to happen NWS CAE would issue something at the last second
 
LovingGulfLows said:
If I were a betting man, I'd go with the RGEM. NAM likely over-amping this and the globals are under-amping this. As Alan(RaleighWx) also noted in a tweet, the arctic kicker dropping down is going to funnel in too much dry air in the mid-levels and cause a sharp cut-off in the SE.
Click to expand...
The models usually do a piss poor job with handling the northwesterly extent and intensity of the precip shield in events like this so I'm not sure or very confident that we'll see a consistent shift SE over the next day or so, if anything more NW adjustments seem probable given everything at hand
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top