Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Webberweather53]

From an early viewpoint on the GFS, I say we continue the west trend. Looks a hair stronger and slower at 30 than previous runs up in Canada.

Yep, but the upper low off of California is a little closer thru 42 which dampens the ridge a little on the west coast and tends to scoot our s/w a little further east... Need that upper low to keep backing up over the subtropical NE Pacific

 

[Webberweather53]

The beat goes on, this northern stream s/w continues to slow down

 

[ForsythSnow]

The beat goes on, this northern stream s/w continues to slow down

View attachment 2444

Yep, and there is a good difference between 6Z and 12Z. Keep it up at this rate and we will have a larger area this storm could affect. In addition, maybe this could be a close run for E NC or even a hit. The tailing energy isn't any closer though so maybe not.

 

[Metwannabe]

The beat goes on, this northern stream s/w continues to slow down

View attachment 2444

Just imagine if this s/w was coming down the Idaho stovepipe....

 

[ForsythSnow]

Just imagine if this s/w was coming down the Idaho stovepipe....

Keep the trend up and we will see it coming through there.

 

[Webberweather53]

Just imagine if this s/w was coming down the Idaho stovepipe....

Yep, if those 2 northern stream waves were a few hundred miles west this would be a historic snowstorm for portions of the Carolinas and even GA

 

[Brett]

Yep, if those 2 northern stream waves were a few hundred miles west this would be a historic snowstorm for portions of the Carolinas and even GA

It can still trend that way

 

[Webberweather53]

Keep the trend up and we will see it coming through there.

We haven't really seen the s/ws change their position in the flow, they're maintaining the same trajectory just at a different speed.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yep, if those 2 northern stream waves were a few hundred miles west this would be a historic snowstorm for portions of the Carolinas and even GA

Not sure how much of Georgia. Coastal and Macon probably.

 

[Metwannabe]

Definitely slowing down more consolidated too maybe

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[Storm5]

Going neutral a little sooner this run but the chaser wave is still dragging ass

 

[Brett]

Going neutral a little sooner this run but the chaser wave is still dragging ass

Good thing is it's trending better

 

[Webberweather53]

It can still trend that way

That's one thing we actually haven't seen in the guidance of late, sure it could happen but we're much more likely to see the speed change than these waves back all the way up into Idaho. Another point worth considering is that a wave like this, if close enough to the front range of the Rockies will try to remain in the Lee of the Rockies where vorticity stretching is optimal, a s/w traversing over the Rockies in Idaho, central-western Wyoming & Colorado would weaken considerably by virtue of column compression which induces an anticyclonic vorticity tendency on the s/w thus causing it to dampen. It would eventually re-intensify on the other side...

 

[Snowfan]

 

[ForsythSnow]

Not sure, but looks like the GFS is closer to a phase this run.

 

[Brett]

A lot better than yesterday

 

[Storm5]

If this look was 100 miles or so further west it would be game on in eastern NC

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[Mitch West]

Not sure a whole lot changed this run compared to last.

 

[Webberweather53]

This is the GFS's version of a baroclinic leaf... Instant Occlusion is imminent after these frames.

 

[Snowfan]

The GFS strengthens the low to 990 MB.