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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

ForsythSnow said:
From an early viewpoint on the GFS, I say we continue the west trend. Looks a hair stronger and slower at 30 than previous runs up in Canada.
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Yep, but the upper low off of California is a little closer thru 42 which dampens the ridge a little on the west coast and tends to scoot our s/w a little further east... Need that upper low to keep backing up over the subtropical NE Pacific
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Webberweather53 said:
The beat goes on, this northern stream s/w continues to slow down

View attachment 2444
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Yep, and there is a good difference between 6Z and 12Z. Keep it up at this rate and we will have a larger area this storm could affect. In addition, maybe this could be a close run for E NC or even a hit. The tailing energy isn't any closer though so maybe not.
 
Definitely slowing down more consolidated too maybe
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Brett said:
It can still trend that way
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That's one thing we actually haven't seen in the guidance of late, sure it could happen but we're much more likely to see the speed change than these waves back all the way up into Idaho. Another point worth considering is that a wave like this, if close enough to the front range of the Rockies will try to remain in the Lee of the Rockies where vorticity stretching is optimal, a s/w traversing over the Rockies in Idaho, central-western Wyoming & Colorado would weaken considerably by virtue of column compression which induces an anticyclonic vorticity tendency on the s/w thus causing it to dampen. It would eventually re-intensify on the other side...
 
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