Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Jon]

You are correct but you have it reversed on the mesoscale models. Its the ARW that is dry, at least on what I looked.

For me, the ARW is wet. May be different for you. Bottom line is they are worlds apart.


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[GeorgiaGirl]

I've tried over and over to get the Sref for KFLO and it just won't pull up.

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It may not be available, the plumes seem to only be available for certain cities.

 

[carolinachaos]

It may not be available, the plumes for certain cities seem to only be available for certain cities.

Ok, I use to be able to pull it up. I didn't know if something had changed.

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[Jon]

Northern stream slightly more south at 25hrs, trends in s/w are negligible for now...


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[Stormsfury]

Both waves a little weaker ay 24hrs. Trailing wave a little east of 12z

 

[Webberweather53]

Yep the trends until these waves begin to interact are pretty negligible for now, after that lol everything flies out the window

 

[Mitch West]

Judging by these comments yall are making me think this NAM run is gonna be bad

 

[deltadog03]

Looks about the same so far

 

[Stormsfury]

Judging by these comments yall are making me think this NAM run is gonna be bad

Differences are slight at 500mb. Probably going to be a slight delay in the phase so probably not going to be west of 12z

 

[Jon]

I’m interested to see how much stronger the northern stream trends this run and what implications it has downstream. Definitely more south and stronger at 36hrs


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[Jon]

Judging by these comments yall are making me think this NAM run is gonna be bad

Either the same or better IMO


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[RollTide18]

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Looked like the trailer started interacting with the Hudson Bay vort again some.

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol NWS RAH is riding model consensus right now... Not to mention they're using climatological 9:1 snow-liquid ratios. Seriously, who came up w/ that here. Ok, if you're expecting sleet that's fine but w/ temps in the mid 20s, SLR are going to be at least 12 maybe 15 to 1. *shrugs*

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

They start dancing over Arkansas again.

 

[RollTide18]

Congrats Mississippi lol

 

[Jon]

Heavy snow over Florida panhandle. As suspected this run is better. Hold on tight...


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[Storm5]

Lots of ZR sleet in SE Georgia this run

 

[Jon]

1”+ liquid per 6hr in southern GA. Big GA hit bigger than 12z


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[RollTide18]

NAM wants to break out some snow showers across Alabama as well

(I know #itstoodry)

 

[RBR71]

The NAM is doubling down

 

[Tarheel1]

The latest NAM seems to get the SW flow going into the Carolinas, is that right or good?

 

[Webberweather53]

We're getting well inside 48 hours on the NAM and it's not backing down, usually a good sign for other models to follow which they have to an extent today...

 

[Stormsfury]

Lots of ZR sleet in SE Georgia this run

Tge NAM at 850mb is 4C in SAV. There are multiple swirls at 850mb and winds are choatic at that level. There's definitely some kind of inverted trough (norlun probably) involved here.

 

[Jon]

Massive hit SE GA. Expect 10-12”+ rough estimate. SC is next


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[Snowflowxxl]

Larry gets pounded!

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Massive hit SE GA. Expect 10-12”+ rough estimate. SC is next


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A lot of it is ice though I think.

 

[Webberweather53]

The big shield of precip breaking out over the NE Gulf coast and south-central GA before the main low really gets going off the SE US coast is very Jan 2000-esque...

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Lots of ZR sleet in SE Georgia this run

precip further west. Midland crush job incoming

 

[Jon]

A lot of it is ice though I think.

Should be snow. I’d have to look at soundings but it doesn’t look like ice especially given rates and 850 temps.


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[Webberweather53]

Good lord the NAM is gonna bury Larry

 

[Avalanche]

Wish this thing could inch its way into the Triangle area. This kind of reminds me of 2001 when Rocky Mount on east got close to a foot while we were wondering what happened. At least this time around its not forecasted here as we are forecasted to be overcast while 40 degrees. Good thing, its driving distance!!!

 

[Mitch West]

precip further west. Midland crush job incoming

I don't think it went further West, stayed about the same.

 

[RBR71]

Looks like there will be some mixing issues in Se Ga for a time which will cut down on sn totals but then the 850's crash and boom..

 

[Stormsfury]

Should be snow. I’d have to look at soundings but it doesn’t look like ice especially given rates and 850 temps.


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There's going to be a great deal of CSI (elevated instability within this large area of heavy precip/snow) given if the 850mb are right to 700mb.

 

[RollTide18]

All In

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'll give it up for the NAM. Sure as heck isn't backing down, and RollTide that might be virga westward.

 

[Jon]

2”/6hr LIQUID on GA/SC border. Wow.


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[mrdaddyman]

LP track much further West but what happened to the precip shield over NC!?

 

[RBR71]

slp closer to the coast, this precip shield will be more expansive to the NW no doubt..