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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

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Very curious to see what the EPS shows us in a bit. Hope to see an uptick in QPF to the West. Very close to a bigger deal for a lot of us.
 
1300m said:
A lot of details still to be ironed out. Three things that were improvements tonight that if they continue will lead to glory are:

1) The lead wave was slower
2) Enhanced vorticity streamers moved out ahead of the wave and actually interacted with it first
3) The final wave was faster, stronger, and dug more north to south, allowing it to catch the slower lead wave much quicker

If at least 1 and 3 can continue to trend in this direction (which has been a trend in the past 4 runs of the Euro), we are going to be looking at a much bigger deal for central NC/SC and eastern GA/SC/NC.
Click to expand...
Can it come even more west in time to get upstate and western North Carolina involved as well
 
1300m said:
A lot of details still to be ironed out. Three things that were improvements tonight that if they continue will lead to glory are:

1) The lead wave was slower
2) Enhanced vorticity streamers moved out ahead of the wave and actually interacted with it first
3) The final wave was faster, stronger, and dug more north to south, allowing it to catch the slower lead wave much quicker

If at least 1 and 3 can continue to trend in this direction (which has been a trend in the past 4 runs of the Euro), we are going to be looking at a much bigger deal for central NC/SC and eastern GA/SC/NC.
Click to expand...
agree 100%
 
Another massive increase of moisture at 700mb across the south over 12z. Another jump like that and far south AL may get in on the game. Somehow I feel this is trying to get back to its original solution both the Euro/CMC had of a small stripe of snow across the far deep south and a Larry special.
 
1300m said:
A lot of details still to be ironed out. Three things that were improvements tonight that if they continue will lead to glory are:

1) The lead wave was slower
2) Enhanced vorticity streamers moved out ahead of the wave and actually interacted with it first
3) The final wave was faster, stronger, and dug more north to south, allowing it to catch the slower lead wave much quicker

If at least 1 and 3 can continue to trend in this direction (which has been a trend in the past 4 runs of the Euro), we are going to be looking at a much bigger deal for central NC/SC and eastern GA/SC/NC.
Click to expand...

The streamers you speak of will not be modeled well outside 12KM NAM and 9KM ECMWF. Modeling like the DWD-ICON can help here (13KM). In fact, they won't be modeled well at all to begin with. Although those models will show a better picture.
 
Arcc said:
Another massive increase of moisture at 700mb across the south over 12z. Another jump like that and far south AL may get in on the game. Somehow I feel this is trying to get back to its original solution both the Euro/CMC had of a small stripe of snow across the far deep south and a Larry special.
Click to expand...
to add to your point there is a really really big upswing in RH at 700mb over the entire SE including MS and AL TRENDS were great tonight
 
deltadog03 said:
to add to your point there is a really really big upswing in RH at 700mb over the entire SE including MS and AL TRENDS were great tonight
Click to expand...
A flow out of the South and West is good to see. I am intrigued to see what happens with the upper level winds and any potential jetstreaks as we get closer with the higher resolution modeling. There are so many factors with this situation! You get the lead wave starting to curl up (slow it even more) on it's own earlier and then have the secondary close in on it and its a great storm for many.
 
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