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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Phasing situations are harder for models to depict correctly. But sheesh, there's so much difference between the mesoscale models and the other models, the mesoscales are looking like a big hit away from the coast and the other models (long range, etc) look like just a nice hit for the coast. Who wins?
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Phasing situations are harder for models to depict correctly. But sheesh, there's so much difference between the mesoscale models and the other models, the mesoscales are looking like a big hit away from the coast and the other models (long range, etc) look like just a nice hit for the coast. Who wins?
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The models that are able to resolve convection and meteorology will probably win at the end of the day. This is looking more & more like an inland threat as time progresses (if this wasn't already apparent from the large-scale synoptic pattern)
 
For those siting 850's below 0 means all snow - isn't that a bit simplistic. All it takes is one small layer at any level between dendritic growth region and the ground to have a sleet fest. In the early December snow here in Greensboro, everyone was saying either all snow or liquid. We ended up with over 50% of the qpf as sleet. With an amped up system off the coast, don't turn a blind eye to that possibility.
TW
 
Tarheelwx said:
For those siting 850's below 0 means all snow - isn't that a bit simplistic. All it takes is one small layer at any level between dendritic growth region and the ground to have a sleet fest. In the early December snow here in Greensboro, everyone was saying either all snow or liquid. We ended up with over 50% of the qpf as sleet. With an amped up system off the coast, don't turn a blind eye to that possibility.
other board
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Fortunately to account for that weatherbell has instituted a product that spits out the maximum temperature between 700-850 hPa where the low-mid level WAA is often most intense in events like this. We certainly can't rule out graupel getting into the mix (which could cut into snow totals) if the precipitation ends up being heavy enough as if often the case w/ intense, convectively driven precip.
 
metwannabe said:
ukie... I'll take that
P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif
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SAV-CHS folks: Like the 12Z RGEM and 12Z NAM and unlike the 12Z ICON, the map above from the 12Z Ukmet suggests IP and/or ZR (and a lot of it, especially considering the UKMET tends to have a dry bias) MAY dominate. Note the thicknesses at 547 dm. I like to see them at 546 or even lower for snow in the SE. I'll check out the 850s when they're available.

Edit: This was later corrected as I misread 500 heights as 1000-500 thicknesses. See my later post below.
 
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That inverted trough along the coast that keeps showing up on models, you can make it out a little here on the ukmet is that what some have mentioned as the norlun trough or am I way off with that? Seems to lend itself to precip maximums well west of the slp
GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif
 
GaWx said:
The RGEM is giving me 0.40" of qpf by hour 48 or 7AM on Wednesday. Almost all other models give me virtually nothing that early. I wonder if the rgem is onto something with the earlier start. Opinions? Also, this is 100% ZR from Phil
through SAV/CHS through the end of its run, which is well before the end of the storm. It does have an IP transition to the northwest but it is so narrow. 850's in SAV-CHS are mainly +0.5 to +2, which history says supports IP
more than ZR fwiw. The threat for major wintry precip in coastal GA/SC slowly seems to be including more and more of ZR for the first part of the storm, not exactly comforting. Hopefully the nonsnow wintry would end up being more IP and less ZR though the 850 warming trends/NW surface low track trend would go more toward ZR and maybe even rain eventually if Delta's call is right.
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You don't have enough hills to be able to use that ip/zr the way it should be used :) It's amazing that Sav is in the hunt over and over with this pattern. How many times have you had repeating chances in any pattern?
 
I would say thats a trend west at least for inland locations of GA, SC and NC
 
12z GFS Ensemble stayed east (shocker lol). I-95 is a little under 100 miles to the NW of the 0.5" QPF contour and RDU ~100-115 nautical miles, very doable adjustment even this far out for the GEFS
 
dsaur said:
You don't have enough hills to be able to use that ip/zr the way it should be used :) It's amazing that Sav is in the hunt over and over with this pattern. How many times have you had repeating chances in any pattern?
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Having more than one very short range legit chance in one winter? Maybe not since 12/1989! Also, 1-2/1977 had more than one. For the record though, we got virtually nothing wintry from the 1st 2 threats. Maybe the 3rd time will be a charm?
 
Webberweather53 said:
12z GFS Ensemble stayed east (shocker lol). I-95 is a little under 100 miles to the NW of the 0.5" QPF contour and RDU ~100-115 nautical miles, very doable adjustment even thI wis far out for the GEFS
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We still have time for trends for sure, right....but what is going to be funny is who flinches first. I would like to see the euro come inland with qpf more for sure. GFS could score the coup?
 
Webberweather53 said:
12z GFS Ensemble stayed east (shocker lol). I-95 is a little under 100 miles to the NW of the 0.5" QPF contour and RDU ~100-115 nautical miles, very doable adjustment even this far out for the GEFS
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Yep but not buying it
2fb27e9199c7ecf9b8757c2eac4ab50d.gif


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Gefs mean h5 looks more negative but less qpf.... ok

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9c92c27dc5528e392ae429a468394654.gif
 
This will be a traffic nightmare considering how cold the roads will already be if it does keep trending up this way to ATL. Oh boy.


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Cary_Snow95 said:
I’m on the edge of my seat waiting for someone to throw out the ground temps argument hahaha
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I should give you a warning point for even bringing that up Lol.... anybody argues ground temps with this well let's just not do it ;)
edit: btw I know you were kidding didn't want any misinterpreted comments... lol
 
I've mentioned this before, but worth bringing up yet again that while RDU tends to get screwed over a lot, the few times the US-1/HWY-64 corridor &/or RDU has hit the jackpot was in a Cold ENSO Neutral/La Nina background state (including storms like Jan 2000, Jan 2002, & Jan 2009). Obviously the heaviest axis of snow could end up anywhere from the central piedmont to the southeastern coastal plain but this is intriguing nonetheless...
Here are a few others...

Cold neutral winter of 1962-63
February 26-27 1963 NC Snowmap.png

NINA winter of 1954-55...
January 18-19 1955 NC Snowmap.png
January 23-24 1955 NC Snowmap.png

NINA winter of 1938-39...
November 26-27 1938 NC Snowmap.png

NINA winter of 1933-34...
March 10-11 1934 NC Snowmap.png

Cold neutral ENSO winter of 1932-33.
January 13-14 1933 NC Snowmap.png

Cold neutral winter of 1920-21
January 26-27 1921 NC Snowmap.png

Cold neutral winter of 1912-13...
February 14 1913 NC Snowmap.png

Cold neutral winter of 1901-02...
February 15-17 1902 NC Snow map.png
 
Well the doc has been called to the stage and is preparing to perform. Is it a hit, or will it be a dud.
 
One thing the doc needs to show is a quicker phase like NAM. Then I will 3/4 dismiss the GFS. If not it will have me a bit worried
 
stronger with our lead wave, maybe a tick W and a tick faster with the chaser. hr 6
 
GaWx said:
SAV-CHS folks: Like the 12Z RGEM and 12Z NAM and unlike the 12Z ICON, the map above from the 12Z Ukmet suggests IP and/or ZR (and a lot of it, especially considering the UKMET tends to have a dry bias) MAY dominate. Note the thicknesses at 547 dm. I like to see them at 546 or even lower for snow in the SE. I'll check out the 850s when they're available.
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Oh man did I make a booboo. I usually am more careful than this but I misread 500 heights as 1000-500 thicknesses. So, it turns out that the thicknesses stay near or below 540 for SAV-CHS on the 12Z Ukmet. Also, the 850s stay near or below 0C. This tells me that very much unlike the 12Z NAM and 12Z RGEM that virtually all of the 12Z Ukmet qpf is snow and that would be a big snow hit since qpf is in the 0.55-60" area!
And if anything this is conservative since the Ukmet is often too dry.
 
tilting faster at hr 24 and the lead wave is slightly slower, chaser slightly faster
 
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