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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Try this
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Is there a good reason to consider the GGEM over the RGEM through 48 hours? The start of the storm for coastal areas is much earlier on the RGEM and the precip just through 12Z on Wednesday for much of coastal GA/SC is already heavier than the GGEM gives for the entire storm! Any experts have an opinion on this?
 
GaWx said:
Is there a good reason to consider the GGEM over the RGEM through 48 hours? The start of the storm for coastal areas is much earlier on the RGEM and the precip just through 12Z on Wednesday for much of coastal GA/SC is already heavier than the GGEM gives for the entire storm! Any experts have an opinion on this?
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I would say in the short term of things, I would lean more on the RGEM. Better resolution for sure than the reg CMC.
 
deltadog03 said:
To me this is one of the more hard forecasts in the fact there is MANY moving parts here. NAM is showing what could happen if we get a quicker phase, CMC and GFS And EURO say well...it won't make it....I am afraid we won't know until at least tomorrow or Tuesday
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The CMC & GFS took a step in the direction of the NAM.... Even something as simple, seemingly insignificant, and as hard to forecast as a little extra diabatic heating under the mid-upper level vorticity max could be all it takes to tilt the vort a little more negative like what happened in Jan 2000 when an impressive shield of very intense precipitation and concomitant diabatic heating (which was poorly forecast btw) coupled w/ the vorticity max over Florida and south-central GA.


NEXRAD Radar Moody AFB, GA Jan 24 2000 12z.png

Jan 25 2000 0z 500 hpa.jpg
 
This is so complex we may not know for sure what will happen or the extent North and west of precipitation till hour 0. Models still wavering back and forth a bit.
 
0z ukmet was wet last night on precip panels even with sfc lp futher east. So bet 12z will be decent hit into atleast eastern piedmont carolinas.
 
The UKMET looks west of last nights run at hour 60. I thought I read above it was east.
 
Kylo said:
The UKMET looks west of last nights run at hour 60. I thought I read above it was east.
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Every single time the UK has come out the last 2 days, there has been mass confusion about whether it is east or west or better or worse.
 
Rain Cold said:
Every single time the UK has come out the last 2 days, there has been mass confusion about whether it is east or west or better or worse.
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Need to figure out how to get our hands on the grib files and make the maps our selves, tbh.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The CMC & GFS took a step in the direction of the NAM.... Even something as simple, seemingly insignificant, and as hard to forecast as a little extra diabatic heating under the mid-upper level vorticity max could be all it takes to tilt the vort a little more negative like what happened in Jan 2000 when an impressive shield of very intense precipitation and concomitant diabatic heating (which was poorly forecast btw) coupled w/ the vorticity max over Florida and south-central GA.


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Ty for posting that. I thought we got snow out of that one
 
WPC legit says 700mb is more amped, leads to a crazy solution and the forecast uncertainty is high.

CAE is adding eastern midlands getting snow.
 
Shawn said:
Need to figure out how to get our hands on the grib files and make the maps our selves, tbh.
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Yeah, I think SV (maybe?) has more detail, but the coarse maps come out quicker and people post about those first.
 
Taking a look at 500-850 mb moisture maps per 12z NAM, it looks wet up through the upstate. This forecast is very touchy. Jan 2000 isn't off the table, RGEM is not far off with surface solution of the NAM.
 
Funny thing is, and I hope I'm not stepping on toes, but FFC doesn't mention anything about this. I get it, most models are dry, and that may ultimately happen. But not a peep? I know it won't effect ATL but damn
 
Too far north. Too far south. Too far east. Too far west. Damn irmo/chapin never gets it.
 
The UK isn't bad, just seems a little odd (there is NO precip onshore at 48 and that changes at 60). Looks like a great hit for East NC/SE VA.
 
deltadog03 said:
Funny thing is, and I hope I'm not stepping on toes, but FFC doesn't mention anything about this. I get it, most models are dry, and that may ultimately happen. But not a peep? I know it won't effect ATL but damn
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CAE is in the same boat; saying that west trends have shown up, but the NAM's 2x crazy runs; nope. Office usually notes the SREF (which has ticked up substantially too).

Noticed that the 12z NAM around here has 0.60+ around the CAE region which is what the SREF's higher tier has (which is expected b/c of the NAM members). The SREF mean is around 0.20. Again, influenced by the NAM.
 
Shawn said:
CAE is in the same boat; saying that west trends have shown up, but the NAM's 2x crazy runs; nope. Office usually notes the SREF (which has ticked up substantially too).

Noticed that the 12z NAM around here has 0.60+ around the CAE region which is what the SREF's higher tier has (which is expected b/c of the NAM members). The SREF mean is around 0.20. Again, influenced by the NAM.
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I know this is a different setup and didn’t the NAM perform better w/the early Dec. snow storm?


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The ICON continues to like the NAVGEM to be rock solid as it has hardly budged in like 12 or so runs with its NNE movement of the surface low from Grand Bahama Island, thus meaning a larger effect on/near the SE coast than the GFS/Euro, which have a NE movement further from the coast. Another thing of note with the ICON: it has 850's staying below 0C through the entire storm for SAV-CHS meaning all snow there. That is in disagreement with the warmer NAM and RGEM at 850. Lastly, the precip on the 12Z ICON starts a few hours earlier than its prior runs though not as early as the 12Z RGEM.
 
GaWx said:
The ICON continues to like the NAVGEM to be rock solid as it has hardly budged in like 12 or so runs with its NNE movement of the surface low from Grand Bahama Island, thus meaning a larger effect on/near the SE coast than the GFS/Euro, which have a NE movement further from the coast. Another thing of note with the ICON: it has 850's staying below 0C through the entire storm for SAV-CHS meaning all snow there. That is in disagreement with the warmer NAM and RGEM at 850. Lastly, the precip on the 12Z ICON starts a few hours earlier than its prior runs though it as early as the 12Z RGEM.
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Yeah I knew the DWD-ICON wasn't that bad, I think it got unlucky w/ the threat several days ago
 
whatalife said:
I know this is a different setup and didn’t the NAM perform better w/the early Dec. snow storm?


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Yeh, noone bought into the 8 inch totals it kept pumping out for AL and GA but it happened.
 
deltadog03 said:
Funny thing is, and I hope I'm not stepping on toes, but FFC doesn't mention anything about this. I get it, most models are dry, and that may ultimately happen. But not a peep? I know it won't effect ATL but damn
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Keep the Nam trending like this and other models follow suit with much less dry air like the Nam showed and more amped, who knows how far north or west this can go haha. If anything even remotely similar happens with Jan 2000 in ATL with the radar imagery Eric showed, the snow may be falling so heavily aloft that it moustens up the air for snow to possibly fall in ATL and Macon. We shall see. It sounds far-fetched but choas theory and mother nature can work miracles and crush jobs and be Wayyyy underpredicted.
 
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