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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

GaWx said:
The NW trend of the main surface low track
on the NAM continues. It is now getting uncomfortably close to the coast and is turning more of the coastal snow into ZR and delaying the change to snow. Might Delta score a win with his bold call of a low near or not far from Jacksonville, FL? If this trend continues, rain may soon enter into the equation.

I'm pretty confident that the last 2 NAM runs are being affected by its too high qpf bias to some extent.

Does anyone know why the NAM has no sleet in the transition zone between snow and ZR?
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I would think ther would be more sleet. The warm nose, I didnt look at soundings yet, but didn't seem to stout
 
hr 30 our wave is stronger and nice tilting going on. chaser is tryhing to get it
 
12z nam vs gfs
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deltadog03 said:
NAM is fun to look at and I think still possible but we need more model support for it, before I totally buy in. Notice *especially on the 3km nam* how mujch more "vorticity bombs* there are over the SE vs the western atlantic. I noticed the NAM also dropped in the waves further west and phased them a bit quicker.
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Translation???
 
Even if the surface doesn't reflect this, the mid-upper level pattern looks better on this GFS run. The s/w is tilting a little faster and is stronger over GA & FL. There's still some potentially spurious diabatically driven PV noise over the SW Atlantic. Some of that is likely real but the GFS's subvortex scale convective feedback is gonna hurt it here
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Like Allan, I'm gonna lean on Nam and RGEM. Looking for globals h5 trends. Can't see enough panels on ukie icon or jma. Gfs trended toward nam compared 6z to 12z. So we'll see how it yo yos rest of day
 
The black and white charts for the cmc are damn near impossible to see. Looks like it could be a good run after all for eastern NC
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even if the surface doesn't reflect this, the mid-upper level pattern looks better on this GFS run. The s/w is tilting a little faster and is stronger over GA & FL. There's still some potentially spurious diabatically driven PV noise over the SW Atlantic. Some of that is likely real but the GFS's subvortex scale convective feedback is gonna hurt it here
View attachment 2540
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Any chance at Upslope in W NC, while the winds are E/SE during the storm, or no?
 
Storm5 said:
Cmc isn’t really close to the nam at H5
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What's funny about that it still manages to get precip inland. Lol I see the SFC low is a bit closer to the coast as well
 
Webberweather53 said:
If the NAM is too amped (which is entirely possible), this still is setting up for a decent hit in general for the coastal plain & the I-95 corridor, but boy we could be in business in a hurry if the s/ws phase just a wee bit sooner
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Just trying to catch up and this looks awesome but it can phase just a wee bit sooner but selfishly I hope it doesn't phase much more than a wee bit sooner. I'm starting to dance with the warm nose issue on the Nam already

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The RGEM is giving me 0.40" of qpf by hour 48 or 7AM on Wednesday. Almost all other models give me virtually nothing that early. I wonder if the rgem is onto something with the earlier start. Opinions? Also, this is 100% ZR from Phil
through SAV/CHS through the end of its run, which is well before the end of the storm. It does have an IP transition to the northwest but it is so narrow. 850's in SAV-CHS are mainly +0.5 to +2, which history says supports IP
more than ZR fwiw. The threat for major wintry precip in coastal GA/SC slowly seems to be including more and more of ZR for the first part of the storm, not exactly comforting. Hopefully the nonsnow wintry would end up being more IP and less ZR though the 850 warming trends/NW surface low track trend would go more toward ZR and maybe even rain eventually if Delta's call is right.
 
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GaWx said:
The RGEM is giving me 0.40" of qpf by hour 48 or 7AM on Wednesday. Almost all other models give me virtually nothing that early. I wonder if the rgem is onto something with the earlier start. Opinions? Also, this is 100% ZR from Phil
through SAV/CHS through the end of its run, which is well before the end of the storm. It does have an IP transition to the northwest but it is so narrow. 850's in SAV-CHS are mainly +0.5 to +2, which history says supports IP
more than ZR fwiw. The threat for major wintry precip in coastal GA/SC slowly seems to be including more and more of ZR for the first part of the storm, not exactly comforting. Hopefully the nonsnow wintry would end up being more IP and less ZR though the 850 warming trends/NW surface low track trend would go more toward ZR and maybe even rain eventually if Delta's call is right.
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To me this is one of the more hard forecasts in the fact there is MANY moving parts here. NAM is showing what could happen if we get a quicker phase, CMC and GFS And EURO say well...it won't make it....I am afraid we won't know until at least tomorrow or Tuesday
 
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