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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Larry should wake up and look at the NAM!! I feel like the precip cutoff as. It looks now in NC, would be RAH! Just can't see this getting back to GSO/CLT
 
That 1013 L just sitting right off the Florida coast. Man anymore west this could bring lot more ppl in play. Wishcasting here lol
 
12z nam. Hr 39 the southern energy is further SW and the northern stream energy is further east.
 
Lol, hr 39 the low takes a SW jog. Just like hurricane season.
 
1300m said:
9Z SREF has gone ballistic. This is for JNX (Smithfield, NC). I won't sugar coat this, I think the SREF is absolutely awful, but a trend is a trend I suppose considering the pattern.

jnx.png
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How I pull this, I've been unable to pull this off the SREF site.

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SE AL almost in play with this NAM run! Wow!!
 
Is that a 3rd piece of energy coming in at 42-45h over the top? Anyway, I think I will get a verga storm out of this...
 
1300m said:
I am really not sure why some are so stuck to this coastal Carolinas only idea. The H5 setup does not support this. Furthermore, from a modeling perspective, the NAM is actually pretty good with H5 interactions. During the January 2017 event it was the first one to push the warm nose further inland, but it seems no one remembers why. The reason why is it had the shortwave responsible for our storm a little stronger, and more neutral to eventually negative tilt earlier. Thus, the NAM handled the H5 evolution of the January 2017 winter storm better than any other guidance at 60 hours out, but even it trended stronger and further west with precipitation right on up until the storm. I made a forecast map of 6-10" west of a CLT to Durham line and a lot of my colleagues thought I was crazy because no guidance suggested that, but the pattern did. The pattern suggests RDU to I-95 in NC as the jackpot zone, and I'm sticking with it unless H5 starts going the other way. 6-12" is not out of reach in this corridor, and locally more could fall if the NAM continues to trend. I also believe sleet will cut down on totals east of I-95 when this is all said and done.
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Love the trends and love hearing this and comparisons to Jan 2000. Plenty of time for this to move West more and I get that same feeling I did with the Carolina Crusher that this is going to be a good storm here.
 
Warm nose on the NAM brings ZR all the way to RDU. Somehow we will find a way to taint in every instance of a winter storm.
 
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