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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

LovingGulfLows said:
So you think this will end up being a classic Miller A track? You don't seem to be giving up on this idea. Would be interesting if what you said comes to reality.
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He has been adamant on his prediction. Fwiw A few days ago this storm had an inland track
 
Not going to cut if folks....phase is a bit late on there. little less qpf near the SAV coast areas vs 12z run so far.
 
Well, not going to lie, I thought we would see a little bit better of a trend on the doc, but it didn't happen....I might be eating crow...lol Still plenty of time, but euro didn't budge west at all. to be honest, it looks a little worse than the 12z run
 
deltadog03 said:
Well, not going to lie, I thought we would see a little bit better of a trend on the doc, but it didn't happen....I might be eating crow...lol Still plenty of time, but euro didn't budge west at all. to be honest, it looks a little worse than the 12z run
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They can't all be winners. Happy New Years and thanks for the pbp
 
RollTide18 said:
Not wishcasting at all but based on what I've been reading, it seems like a battle of the globals vs mesoscale models seem to be setting up.
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Quite possible that we maybe settling into a general idea of the players and the setup, but the corrections will likely occur towards the 11th hour... honestly, I think there will be some room to shift left maybe 100 miles but that's about it.
 
our problem is there is a late phase for 1, but 2...there is a lot of competition for energy in the west atl
 
Stormsfury said:
Yeah I was wondering, 12z wasn't a whole lot and with this, suspected relatively the same thing.
NAVGEM still refused to budge, still abouy the same again...
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ya, I think if your outside the coastal areas its going to be very tough to get moisture and precip. RDU might still have a shot, but if your not on or very near the coast this ones going to be tough I think unless we see a quicker phase.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
:(
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It's not over yet.There plenty of time to trend this system much further Northwest.It has happened it has many times with Southeastern snowstorms.If the Low can develop in the Gulf,take a Northern Florida Track and hug the coast afterwards,we still have a shot.Looking at the recent Nam models and it's significant west trends and the Rgem model,which closes off the main wave,there's still a chance.
 
us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018010100_90_480_323.png
 
deltadog03 said:
ya, I think if your outside the coastal areas its going to be very tough to get moisture and precip. RDU might still have a shot, but if your not on or very near the coast this ones going to be tough I think unless we see a quicker phase.
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I 100% agree with this. I hope I’m wrong.


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deltadog03 said:
ya, I think if your outside the coastal areas its going to be very tough to get moisture and precip. RDU might still have a shot, but if your not on or very near the coast this ones going to be tough I think unless we see a quicker phase.
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Yeah as long as we have the two waves in play the rest of the way, it's likely going to come down to SFC corrections that bring it closer a little bit versus the actual 500mb pattern. The NAM tonight seems to hint at a rapid occlusion based on the 00z run with its crazy triple low centers or just incredible feedback. Time to rest.
 
deltadog03 said:
ya, I think if your outside the coastal areas its going to be very tough to get moisture and precip. RDU might still have a shot, but if your not on or very near the coast this ones going to be tough I think unless we see a quicker phase.
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I believe you are underestimating the potential. I actually think coastal areas will be too warm for anything besides rain when the northwest trends are done.If the main wave closes off like the Rgem model is showing,this could lead to a Gulf Low,which may lead to a Northern Florida track and then hugging the coast afterwards,It's real possibly that areas like Macon,Columbia,Greensboro,Raleigh, Fayetteville,Rocky Mount ,Virginia Beach,etc could see a major snowstorm with snow in Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and even Western North Carolina with that type of track.With the continuation of the west trends,it's possible.
 
The Euro actually wasn’t too bad. Nam is probably close to best-case, but plenty of time for this to trend as the big players don’t agree on when the s/w goes neutral as it’s hard to tell between frames where exactly it occurs...but one can guess. I’m still as interested as I was before the 00z Euro.




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Of that low would coast little more west, then the south GA and east Bama would be gold.
 
Good way to start off the New Years with a bang, with the 6z runs.
 
Uhm. IF it were to occur, snowfall maps are very low for CLT / CAE (more inland areas)
 
3km NAM shows a lot of sleet and ice at the onset of the storm for the coastal plains of GA, SC, and NC. Be careful. There's definitely a warm nose there that the lower res NAM isn't picking up. I think as the storm begins to pull away, the strong cold air advection from the northeast will cool the column for snow in almost all locations.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_60.png
 
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