Even though 8-9 days from now feels like eternity lol
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
The 12Z EPS has preceding maps at H5 (i.e., the setup) that are slightly more favorable looking for the SE coast 1/3/18 potential vs the 0Z EPS. Example: compare 12Z EPS hour 108 vs 0Z EPS hour 120. The point is that the 12Z Euro/EPS trend vs 0Z is not at all taking away this threat and actually increased it a bit.
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Brett
Member
Would that include SE Va or South of there?
Conceivably but threat would be higher south of there if it were to materialize.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Meh, I wouldn't say it was even slightly more favorable, the member MSLP looks pretty much exactly the same on this suite. Yawn...
There are many more members on 12Z EPS with a low just ENE of Freeport vs 0Z and many more members with lows, period, vs 0Z EPS. ENE of Freeport is not far from the track that can give rare SE coastal snows.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That's also because more members are finally developing a low pressure area there but the location of the lows on those members and the ones that already had a low there haven't changed, which is my point.
^ More EPS members with a low that actually develops in a rather favorable just ENE of Freeport position. Get a low 100 miles NW of there and we could be looking at a big threat. To me that means slightly higher threat. To each there own.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well, that's fine and dandy to have more members with a low there but it does you no good if the low is still in the same exact position as it was before. For this to actually be indicative of a higher threat we not only need more members on board, but the low pressure track actually needs to shift NW to implicate more of the SE US, and given the last few busts of late from northern stream s/ws I'm not banking on it this far out... If this threat remains relevant and we are seeing significant improvements to the large-scale pattern once we're inside day 3-4, then fine, but for now meh.
olhausen
Member
Who cares if it warms a little. We are not even to January yet and all the models point to cold. We are just about to enter our prime time to see snow which is early January till about mid February. At this point we’d probably be better off if the temps relaxed a little bit and the air could get a little more moist. The majority of big storms in the southeast come much more often when temps are moderate then when temps are bone chilling cold. I’ve been following weather boards since about 2008 and I’ve never seen a year like this where people where literally calling for winter cancel on December 1st. I’ve said it a million times this winter but I’ll say it once more. I won’t even be close to worrying about getting snow or not until late January and even then I’ll still have hope going into February. At least half the winters I’ve lived here didn’t get a 1inch or higher snow until February or later. And usually about every 2-3 years we get snow in March so kick back relax and enjoy the fact that we are cold this winter.
Isn't there more of a tendency for tracks to shift NW as you get closer to an event than the other way around? Keeping that in mind, I'm not about to give up on this one. Of course, a NW shift could possibly make it a little too warm for me but I'd obviously like to have that situation and see what were to play out since history says that is the best chance trackwise.
olhausen
Member
Northern Middle Tennessee will have it’s last above freezing temps tomorrow and won’t get back above freezing until the following Sunday. If this ends up happening it will definitely be the longest stretch of below freezing temps for my area since I’ve lived here. Most days before this was 4-5 day stretch a few times. This would end up being 7 days of below freezing temps and not getting above until the 8th day. Pretty cool actually. No pun intended
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This hasn't been the case of late because we're in a northern stream dominant pattern and our s/ws are getting squashed because of it, if anything I'd be worried about this trending/staying too far SE. The last 2 threats (New Years and December 28-29th) never really came back NW after getting squashed in the medium range, this pattern surrounding this system looks similar.
Brett
Member
Maybe tonight the euro will be a little better, closer.
This is the rare time I want more of a phase!
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Hey buddy, the answer is yes and no, it depends on the set-up. With that powerhouse up in the NE. it will tend to be suppressed. With a typical set-up there does seem to be a bias in the medium range to have high pressures modeled too strong and therefore the storms trend NW as you approach the event. This time, I would not bank on a NW trend unless the trough axis shifts. We want to see the axis go neutral sooner as this would allow more time for a phase. Right now, you stand the best chance of seeing something than any of us do. Good luck down there man.
MichaelJ
Member
With the NS crushing anything above 25 degrees North, don't think we will see a change until the H5 pattern changes up or we sneak one wave into Los Angeles that doesn't get dried out coming over 4 tall mountain ranges.
Stormsfury
Member
Dont look now but the 18z NAM just tossed a wicked knucklecurve.
Clayton Reid
Member
Ok. Don't get me wrong. I like the fact that we are cold but it has done us no good as of right now. And now we are supposed to sit back and see if this cold is actually gonna hold on long enough for a California shortwave to hit it? I get it Eric. I'm sorry and you have proven me wrong. I just hop we don't all end up with a rainstorm by the time it gets here. I realize this is our only chance but I'm scared to death the SeR is gonna come back (which it eventually will) and screw us over. Who here is not scared of the fact that this cold cant last for very long? I am at least. Hopefully, Eric is right about this and we score but it far fetched it seems right now that we'll be lucky for the cold to stick around. Granted, we don't have a handle on the northern stream just yet so the cold could last longer than expected. I'm just skeptical. @Webberweather53 @Rain Cold @Storm5
pcbjr
Member
Larry,
You're gonna do it ...
; let's hope that 31º and some rain translates way down here to something as well ... To avoid warning points, I'll take related conversation to PM ...
Best!
Phil