Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[DLI4SCwx]

Dont look now but the 18z NAM just tossed a wicked knucklecurve.

Do tell Storm. I can't view here at work. What does it look like?

 

[DLI4SCwx]

Didn't see anyone post this, but the 12z Navgem came back northwest a little and gets light precipitation into southeastern NC.

Hope that's the start of a continuing trend westward.

 

[Brett]

Hope that's the start of a continuing trend westward.

If it can give SE VA some snow I'll be happy lol

 

[DLI4SCwx]

If it can give SE VA some snow I'll be happy lol

Haha! Yeah, I know what you mean Brett. Not sure this is the one, but possibly the period Eric was referring to around Jan. 7th or so. That looks like it may hold a better possibility overall for the region.

 

[DadOfJax]

Dont look now but the 18z NAM just tossed a wicked knucklecurve.

Not really.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Dont look now but the 18z NAM just tossed a wicked knucklecurve.

Yep, it keeps trending westward with the trough axis. Need some more shifts like that one.

 

[Stormsfury]

Do tell Storm. I can't view here at work. What does it look like?

A little surprise at 54 to 66
Courtesy of some enhanced jet streaking at 850mb and a strong jet at 250mb to the north.

 

[Stormsfury]

Not really.

Yes really.
See my above post.

 

[DadOfJax]

Yes really.
See my above post.

I think you are posting in the wrong thread. You talking about NYD storm and this is for midweek.

 

[DLI4SCwx]

A little surprise at 54 to 66
Courtesy of some enhanced jet streaking at 850mb and a strong jet at 250mb to the north.

Thanks for the info Storm. Hoping we can get some more western trends on future model runs.

 

[Webberweather53]

If I see even token flurries out of this in Fayetteville I'd call that a massive win

 

[pcbjr]

If I see even token flurries out of this in Fayetteville I'd call that a massive win

Webb,
Are you walking around my neighborhood block this afternoon?
If so, stop in for a cool one.
Best!
Phil

 

[carolinachaos]

If I see even token flurries out of this in Fayetteville I'd call that a massive win

I want to see token flakes here in Florence

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[GaWx]

18Z GFS: another close miss to the se coast but the key word to me is close rather than miss. We're still not seeing a clearcut trend away from the close miss.

 

[StoneMtnWx]

18Z GFS: another close miss to the se coast but the key word to me is close rather than miss. We're still not seeing as clearcut trend away from the close miss.

Did look better in terms of the southern s/w and northern energy was faster...fwiw right now.

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[Cary_Snow95]

18Z GFS: another close miss to the se coast but the key word to me is close rather than miss. We're still not seeing as clearcut trend away from the close miss.

It really seems that most models keep slowing the wave down. That run wasn’t as positive tilt as 12z. Keep that trend going and it will be close

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Did look better in terms of the southern s/w and northern energy was faster...fwiw right now.

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Yeah I saw that too. Closer to a Euro idea

 

[SD]

Oh so close

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[GaWx]

The key to me is to assess whether or not there is a reasonable possibility for model consensus to miss by 150-200 miles to the SE at 5 days out. I'd think it would be. That's why we watch and track these things and is what a lot of these threads are all about. How often is it set in stone 5 days out?

 

[TheBatman]

Oh so close

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There is still time for this one. It definitely looks like it trended a little better for you guys.