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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

ForsythSnow said:
That could just be a surface low that we don't need to even worry about. On the other hand, what in the world is going on and if that showed up, there has to be some kind of moisture in there, right?
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Not sure if it's related to the topography of the appalachians, but this is a very potent upper level trough and there's likely to be some precipitation underneath it esp over the mountains w/ an assist from orographic lift
 
1300m said:
Appears the 00z UKMET run may have ticked west.
P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif
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Yep, the main low is well offshore, but there's so much lift & diffluence underneath the parent upper level trough axis that a nice extrusion of precipitation extends well to NW all the way into the piedmont of the Carolinas on this run
 
Stormsfury said:
Resembles a norlun trough in some aspects...
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Yep, it does to some extent, norlun troughs take unpredictability to a whole other level and global models rarely resolve or accurately predict their placement, evolution, and intensity. Mesoscale models can perform okay-ish inside 24-30 hours or so but I wouldn't go out much further than that
 
Webberweather53 said:
Overall about the same precipitation wise in NC, actually increased a little south of Raleigh, decreased a smidge in the northern coastal plain and tidewater and about the same for the Triangle
View attachment 2510
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Don't you know I only care about the northern coastal plain lol.... jk. I really didn't expect too much to change with it, GFS seems to be the drier solution atm which is fine by me. Cautiously optimistic that the Euro is gonna keep the good trends going and maybe it will actually show what we want at the surface
 
That ICON run throws a monkey wrench in all of this, along with the cut off the RGEM showed. Guys, we aren't going to know until 24 hours out wow!
 
deltadog03 said:
DR NO is on the stage. Here we goooooooo
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Chris, do you use an inhouse source still, or stormvista? Stormvista seems to be the fastest, outside larry's private source from what I have seen. On weatherbell the 00z has not "initialized" yet.
 
Clem282340 said:
If it's closes off what would happen
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This could lead to the SFC low pressure storm end up being in the Gulf,which shifts the track way further west,which leads to massive strengthening with the SFC low hugging the coast if not go a little inland.This could lead to areas like most of Alabama, Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina,and maybe Western North Carolina getting snow.May also result in a major snowstorm for areas like Macon,Augusta, Columbia,Fayetteville,Greensboro,Raleigh,Rocky Mount,Virginia Beach,etc
 
Michael21 said:
This could lead to the SFC low pressure storm end up being in the Gulf,which shifts the track way further west,which leads to massive strengthening with the SFC low hugging the coast if not go a little inland.This could lead to areas like most of Alabama, Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina,and maybe Western North Carolina getting snow.May also result in a major snowstorm for areas like Macon,Augusta, Columbia,Fayetteville,Greensboro,Raleigh,Rocky Mount,Virginia Beach,etc
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So you think this will end up being a classic Miller A track? You don't seem to be giving up on this idea. Would be interesting if what you said comes to reality.
 
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