Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Mitch West]

No, it is closer on 12Z

It is closer to the coast of FL.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah 12z is closer. You have to look for the markers of the L if the L isn't there.

 

[93Storm]

So the low looks further away on 12z but brought the precip shield more N....

The low is further south and west.

 

[Shawn]

You want to see the energy to the North speed up, and yank the low closer to the coast. The NE wants that solution, too.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The actual L pops later but the starting points of it is further west.

 

[Mitch West]

Yeah 12z is closer. You have to look for the markers of the L if the L isn't there.

Yeh my bad guys. Not sure was i thinking.

 

[GaWx]

The 12Z Euro track is only 100-150 miles away from being a potential major coastal SE snow event. Do not sleep on this just yet...at least those in N FL, SE GA, and E Carolinas.

 

[Shawn]

Larry might’ve sniffed one out here...I’d say we still hold off on locking this sucker until 0z

I'll leave it open on the outside chance, modeling works in our favor for a change. Outside the Carolinas and some parts of GA, not gonna work, though.

 

[Stormsfury]

FWIW, WPC still has slight risk Day 5/6 outlined for Southern GA to the SC coastal plain and then up into Eastern NC Day 6. For snow/sleet equaling .25" liquid equivalent or greater .

 

[Arcc]

Interesting. Massive improvement moisture wise pooling at 700mb at 111hrs over 0z and yesterday's 12z. I mean massive. I'm pulling for you Larry

 

[Shawn]

Interesting. Massive improvement moisture wise pooling at 700mb at 111hrs over 0z and yesterday's 12z. I mean massive. I'm pulling for you Larry

700mb, it's a start:

 

[Showmeyourtds]

I'll leave it open on the outside chance, modeling works in our favor for a change. Outside the Carolinas and some parts of GA, not gonna work, though.

Thanks!

 

[Shawn]

To go with the 12z Euro above, here was the 00z Euro 700mb:

 

[packfan98]

Did anyone post any information from the UKMET? I might have missed it.

 

[Shawn]

Did anyone post any information from the UKMET? I might have missed it.

worse.

 

[Shawn]

12z GEFS mean precip is not very good; here is total precip (both waves NYE/NYD && Midweek):

 

[Webberweather53]

12z GEFS mean precip is not very good; here is total precip (both waves NYE/NYD && Midweek):

Lol this is getting squashed into oblivion like the other 2 threats....

 

[Mitch West]

Lol this is getting squashed into oblivion like the other 2 threats....

Come on, Eric. Have hope so we can. Lol

 

[Webberweather53]

Come on, Eric. Have hope so we can. Lol

I have hope haha, I'm just not putting much hope in this storm because the general pattern is fickle and relatively unreliable for the board as a whole. The long range Euro, EPS, & CMC do offer legitimate hope as they show a s/w smacking into California in 8-9 days

 

[Mitch West]

I have hope haha, I'm just not putting much hope in this storm because the general pattern is fickle and relatively unreliable for the board as a whole. The long range Euro, EPS, & CMC do offer legitimate hope as they show a s/w smacking into California in 8-9 days

I read up on your stuff in the other thread. Hoping it stays the same.