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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
2.07" of Freezing RAIN!!!
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I remember at 4:00 that afternoon seeing all that moisture to the south and thinking why aren't they calling for a big snow storm here.
Lol Larry got NAM again...granted a lot is ice too but still gets back end snow. Also those totals keep pressing further N and W each run...Happy New Years
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whatalife
Moderator
2.07" of Freezing RAIN!!!
I’m riding the NAM off the cliff but that freezing rain is to close for comfort. LOL
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Just like Jan 2000, those higher totals are coming north.Happy New Years
packfan98
Moderator
QPF totals. Look for the totals to increase over the eastern half of NC in future runs.
NCSNOW
Member
If you and me can get to .5 i'd cash out. I'll settle for .25 cause it'll be all snow. Fun one to track.QPF totals. Look for the totals to increase over the eastern half of NC in future runs.
packfan98
Moderator
Ok. The 3K Nam is better for NC and Virginia and looks more realistic in keeping the low moving north and a better precip shield.
Storm5
Member
Sorry for the banter but Sweet baby Jesus!
Yeh it is isnt it...
One would think with a 978 sitting here there would be much more snow back to RDU
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Crazy jump on the 9z sref at RDU mean went from 1 to 5. 2 members now showing 25-30
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
There's a lot less dry air this run it seems and it's moisture inland. We will see what happens, but maybe a few more areas could get a flake.
packfan98
Moderator
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Posts like these are not necessary. Just hit the like button and let it ride. Please keep the one liners, wishcasting, and backyard posts in the banter thread. We want this one uncluttered and easy to read. Yes, we have to be more strict during high volume times. Nothing personal. We are just trying to make the site better for readers. Thanks!
Stormsfury
Member
Keep in mind not because the low tracks changed but the NAM actually adjusted moisture throwback more in line with the 500mb setup.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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With runs like the NAM showing up, pure excitement ( weenieisms) , a few are bound to happen. I mean the NAM shifted the precip shield about 100-200 miles west, of any other models!
whatalife
Moderator
My guess would be that by tonight maybe more of the global models will move more to a NAM solution. Just hope the NAM isn’t out to lunch.
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To my untrained eye, NAM had the trailer wave east and very fast diving almost over the lakes.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I think that since the energy phased sooner, it appeared that way.
Well it was fun while it lasted!
We do need to see some other models migrate toward the Nam. It isn’t called “being Nam’ed” for no reason.
If the NAM is out to lunch then it's been there for awhile now. Must be hungry
NAM is fun to look at and I think still possible but we need more model support for it, before I totally buy in. Notice *especially on the 3km nam* how mujch more "vorticity bombs* there are over the SE vs the western atlantic. I noticed the NAM also dropped in the waves further west and phased them a bit quicker.
RollTide18
Member
What? It doesn't begin for the coastal areas until hour 45 on the NAM, RGEM is at 42 and moisture still moving north.
Cary_Snow95
Member
12z GFS on deck
ForsythSnow
Moderator
48 hour rgem
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I will say its trying....I just would like to see more model support for it..lolHere is something that you might like seeing you are in Macon area.
12Z
0Z
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If the NAM is too amped (which is entirely possible), this still is setting up for a decent hit in general for the coastal plain & the I-95 corridor, but boy we could be in business in a hurry if the s/ws phase just a wee bit sooner
RollTide18
Member
SC getting major stuff..
The NW trend of the main surface low track
on the NAM continues. It is now getting uncomfortably close to the coast and is turning more of the coastal snow into ZR and delaying the change to snow. Might Delta score a win with his bold call of a low near or not far from Jacksonville, FL? If this trend continues, rain may soon enter into the equation.
I'm pretty confident that the last 2 NAM runs are being affected by its too high qpf bias to some extent.
Does anyone know why the NAM has no sleet in the transition zone between snow and ZR?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's not bad. Doesn't show the whole "storm" but it gets precip close to me at 48 and the storm doesn't really get started until after that hour on the NAM. I would like to see the Euro come back around to a wetter solution though.
notice how the sfc low keeps getting closer, imagine if we have no vorticity bomb city over the western atl and closer to coast?
If this verifies, boy oh boy that's a sight to see.
GFS a little faster on chaser wave so far, our wave is tilting already through hr 24
Does the RGEM only go out to 48? For some reason, I thought it went longer.