• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

NCSNOW said:
1300m you've done a great job with others on this. Alan Huffman said the same thing this a.m. like your call earlier today with the max strip possibly 6 to 12 hitting between i95 and us 1.
Click to expand...

6-12 is a good conservative estimate. We could see a lot more in the jackpot zone if we hit this storm just right. The MSLP this is forecasted to have south of Hatteras is just unreal for January,
 
The story is the same, globals say forget anything interior (expect a bit inland overnNC) and the hi res say almost to central GA and CAE and RDU get precip. 18z NAM will be interesting. So will euro later tonight
 
Phasing situations are just fickle to deal with. This could very well be a nothing burger outside of the coast until you get to North Carolina, or we could see the waves start dancing over Arkansas and even if they're too amped, something sneak up on interior Georgia and South Carolina.
 
carolinachaos said:
With what we know now, is anyone willing to give any first call estimates on snow amounts for the Carolinas?

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

KCHS already has a 1-3" along the coastal counties.. 0" here in Dorchester County. I have seem some other coaatal offices already putting preliminary forecasts and KCAE has introduced a slight chance Southern Midland Zones
 
Webberweather53 said:
6-12 is a good conservative estimate. If we hit this storm just right, the MSLP this is forecasted to have south of Hatteras is just unreal for January, we could see a lot more in the jackpot zone
Click to expand...
Just how far west realistically could you see some snow with this setup? I feel I'm 99% sure I want see a flake with this, But I see some people that's W/SW of me grasping at straws (I think)? I'm in the N.Foothills of NC
 
CAE has 20% for me on Wednesday. I'm anxious to see what they'll put after this evening/ tonight's model runs.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Just how far west realistically could you see some snow with this setup? I feel I'm 99% sure I want see a flake with this, But I see some people that's W/SW of me grasping at straws (I think)? I'm in the N.Foothills of NC
Click to expand...

I think Greensboro/Winston-Salem back to Statesville, and Shelby (ish) is probably about as far NW as I could see any significant snows coming. Essentially if you're NW of I-85 between Greensboro & Charlotte, I don't see much at all. Areas towards the central-eastern piedmont and western coastal plain appear to be in the driver seat atm...
 
1300m said:
There is going to be some insane banding with this system. Someone may be under a band producing 2 to 3" per hour. Maybe even 4"....
Click to expand...

I agree with that. Not to mention the ratios will be insane at least 12-15:1 in many spots w/ temps in the mid 20s. Some of those clown maps in the jackpot zone could be feasibly pushed up by as much as 30-50% when all is said and done as long as they don't mix w/ sleet. The potential for graupel in the heaviest convective bands will certainly make the forecast that much harder... Nice to know we've both been seeing virtually eye-to-eye with this event
 
How about Thunder snow, will the dynamics in this system have the possibility of producing this. Experienced this phenomenon twice and I was as amp as Jim Cantore was when got 6 hits while broadcasting live a few years ago.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
I can’t wait to see @1300m and @Webberweather53’s first call maps. I’m assuming after the 0z runs tonight?

Also, how did the EPS look?
 
carolinachaos said:
How about Thunder snow, will the dynamics in this system have the possibility of producing this. Experienced this phenomenon twice and I was as amp as Jim Cantore was when got 6 hits while broadcasting live a few years ago.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Absolutely, without question if you get into the core of this thing there's going to be thundersnow....
 
If we get snow it's going to stick around through the weekend and some of those late week mornings will be brutal

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
18Z NAM is about to run :))... but I'm still stuck on whether to believe the NAM, or look at global models?? With the event being so close I want to say look at the NAM, but it has some insane totals... while global models are basically a non event for us away from the coast line in SC.
 
Robert West said:
Yes, please make a map for all of the Carolina's Eric.
Click to expand...

If I make a map for the Carolinas this far out, no doubt it's going to be probabilistic and not deterministic. I'm okay w/ making multiple maps for an event as long as I don't have too many deterministic ones because it kind of defeats the purpose. If there's one thing I've learned while tracking storms for this many years a simple model consensus (even if it includes every model known to man) (as I often see many others in this field do) does not cut the chase, in-situ dynamical adjustments are paramount
 
Webberweather53 said:
If I make a map for the Carolinas this far out, no doubt it's going to be probabilistic and not deterministic. I'm okay w/ making multiple maps for an event as long as I don't have too many deterministic ones because it kind of defeats the purpose
Click to expand...
I was just meaning when you do make a map to make one for all of the Carolina's or one for SC and another for NC
 
Eps
3bc63d8655b1c21fbb09b5ed8d24e011.jpg
902b2ae893964edbde92673a132ba594.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
It looks like those horrible SREFs just went up. I wonder what the NAM is about to do...Wonder what they look like for NC...(sarcasm included)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
1300m said:
I agree, we've definitely been on this train together! FWIW, a few of my met colleagues (who really just started paying attention yesterday) also think the NAM is likely handling the low placement and precipitation shield more correctly.
Click to expand...
It's been fun to be honest. I miss that part of the biz, not the politics. Lol. I think we are not done trending either
 
Does anyone have a SREF snow plume for Atlanta. Lol, I know it's unrealistic expectations for ATL but I just wanna see if there's a chance. May sound crazy that I still think ATL may have a chance..
 
whatalife said:
It looks like those horrible SREFs just went up. I wonder what the NAM is about to do...Wonder what they look like for NC...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
At 2 inches now. NAM about to do something crazy...
 
Clayton Reid said:
Does anyone have a SREF snow plume for Atlanta. Lol, I know it's unrealistic expectations for ATL but I just wanna see if there's a chance. May sound crazy that I still think ATL may have a chance..
Click to expand...
It's at 0. ALl you got to do is google SREF plumes and it's super easy to figure it out.
 
Well dang. I didn't wanna face the thought that Savannah of all places could get snow and not the ATL. But it looks like I have to face it. I just don't wanna keep kicking the can for my area because this cold is about to kick out soon on the models.
 
SREF plumes can’t be trusted at this range. The SREF uses two mesoscale models, ARW and NMB, which are often worlds apart at this range. ARW is very wet leading to the high individual members on the plumes while the NMB is bone dry. They need to be closer together for the SREF to have utility. Until then, you’re basically only looking at one model, the ARW, and discounting the main reason why the SREF is used which is as an ensemble system.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Clayton Reid said:
Well dang. I didn't wanna face the thought that Savannah of all places could get snow and not the ATL. But it looks like I have to face it. I just don't wanna keep kicking the can for my area because this cold is about to kick out soon on the models.
Click to expand...
The man in Savannah has been all over this, and roots for KATL incessantly; how about a little reciprocity and neighborly well-wishes?
 
18z NAM is running. 12z was an absolute crush job for southeast Georgia, and eastern SC. Mid to upper 20 surface temperatures, and all snow profile for some. Over a foot of snow possible for those areas. This is going to be one for the history books if the NAM isn't just smoking New Year weed.
 
Jon said:
SREF plumes can’t be trusted at this range. The SREF uses two mesoscale models, ARW and NMB, which are often worlds apart at this range. ARW is very wet leading to the high individual members on the plumes while the NMB is bone dry. They need to be closer together for the SREF to have utility. Until then, you’re basically only looking at one model, the ARW, and discounting the main reason why the SREF is used which is as an ensemble system.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

You are correct but you have it reversed on the mesoscale models. Its the ARW that is dry, at least on what I looked.
 
pcbjr said:
The man in Savannah has been all over this, and roots for KATL incessantly; how about a little reciprocity and neighborly well-wishes?
Click to expand...
Sorry. I just remembered that in February 2010 both ATL and SAV got snow so I was kinda hoping for that but you're right. This storm is fun to track nonetheless
 
Jon said:
SREF plumes can’t be trusted at this range. The SREF uses two mesoscale models, ARW and NMB, which are often worlds apart at this range. ARW is very wet leading to the high individual members on the plumes while the NMB is bone dry. They need to be closer together for the SREF to have utility. Until then, you’re basically only looking at one model, the ARW, and discounting the main reason why the SREF is used which is as an ensemble system.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

My comment was only meant as sarcasm and Jon I totally agree with you on this...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top