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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

RollTide18 said:
@Webberweather53 what was the setup behind Feb '73?
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Here's the 500 hPa animation I posted the other night on the forum from ECMWF's 20th century reanalysis. Much different setup w/ a monster wave in the southern stream plowing across Mexico and the Gulf then going ape as it neared the SE US coast. As would be expected in a strong NINO, the February 1973 case was southern stream dominant, here we're dealing with a wave that's almost entirely encapsulated in the northern branch of the jet. In that regard it's more like January 2000, but the Jan 2000 storm had more blocking upstream over Greenland that created a traffic jam upstream over the eastern seaboard and effectively allowed the rapidly intensifying cyclone to veer up the coast very quickly
February-8-11-1973-500-animation.gif
 
Stormsfury said:
1973021012.gif


I was already looking it up lol
There you go
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So essentially we need the location of the SLP to trend west a few hundred miles and develop then? If I'm not mistaken, I think Eric had an analysis of Feb. 73' and showed the s/w coming from Southern Cali. So, I believe it was different setup overall in terms of the features.
Edit: I see Eric just alluded to this above.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol you should have cautioned the people that might not know . The German model has busted horribly with the previous threats showing big hits like other guidance
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Yeah, it has busted horribly no doubt, on the other hand it's nice to potentially have a NWP model that may be biased NW w/ east coast cyclones relative to other models....
 
If I lived in the eastern 1/4 of NC I’d be excited and I’d be really excited if I lived in Virginia after that ukmet run
 
I would say the GFS is still a nice step in the right direction...will we ultimately get there, we don't know.....but euro will be very interesting to see if it continues the trends
 
Next image you can see the negative tilt trough pulls the low into NE just a little sooner with the negative tilt and the German model might be on to something..
GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif
 
deltadog03 said:
I would say the GFS is still a nice step in the right direction...will we ultimately get there, we don't know.....but euro will be very interesting to see if it continues the trends
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I think the GFS will come around but will be late to the party. I'll be honest. I think the 500mv to SFC low reflection is a bit wonky.
 
1300m said:
Nothing is off the table.

And a step.and a half for you. And me.
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Yep, I'm officially on board now haha, this is just so darn fickle but if we miraculously play everything right we'll hit the jackpot. A little extra dibatic heating in the NE Gulf would be nice so we can tilt this sucker negative more quickly...
 
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