Lol you should have cautioned the people that might not know . The German model has busted horribly with the previous threats showing big hits like other guidance
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the 500 hPa animation I posted the other night on the forum from ECMWF's 20th century reanalysis. Much different setup w/ a monster wave in the southern stream plowing across Mexico and the Gulf then going ape as it neared the SE US coast. As would be expected in a strong NINO, the February 1973 case was southern stream dominant, here we're dealing with a wave that's almost entirely encapsulated in the northern branch of the jet. In that regard it's more like January 2000, but the Jan 2000 storm had more blocking upstream over Greenland that created a traffic jam upstream over the eastern seaboard and effectively allowed the rapidly intensifying cyclone to veer up the coast very quickly
DLI4SCwx
Member
So essentially we need the location of the SLP to trend west a few hundred miles and develop then? If I'm not mistaken, I think Eric had an analysis of Feb. 73' and showed the s/w coming from Southern Cali. So, I believe it was different setup overall in terms of the features.
I was already looking it up lol
There you go
Edit: I see Eric just alluded to this above.
Ukmet Maps Anyone?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, it has busted horribly no doubt, on the other hand it's nice to potentially have a NWP model that may be biased NW w/ east coast cyclones relative to other models....
Our friend Brett in Virginia should love the ukmet
If I lived in the eastern 1/4 of NC I’d be excited and I’d be really excited if I lived in Virginia after that ukmet run
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Hmm from the way it sounds like the UK is a hit for east NC/SE VA.
I would say the GFS is still a nice step in the right direction...will we ultimately get there, we don't know.....but euro will be very interesting to see if it continues the trends
You think the DELMARVA region is in the game too ?
Next image you can see the negative tilt trough pulls the low into NE just a little sooner with the negative tilt and the German model might be on to something..
Stormsfury
Member
I think the GFS will come around but will be late to the party. I'll be honest. I think the 500mv to SFC low reflection is a bit wonky.
Seeing the ukie and the German take steps in right direction I'll be shocked if the Euro doesn't also....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is a couple baby steps away from being a monster hit even where you're at...
Cary_Snow95
Member
Could it make it further inland to places like CAE and Fayetteville in your opinion?
packfan98
Moderator
Please stop asking for maps for every run of every model. Either look them up yourself, or wait for someone to post them after the run finishes.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, I'm officially on board now haha, this is just so darn fickle but if we miraculously play everything right we'll hit the jackpot. A little extra dibatic heating in the NE Gulf would be nice so we can tilt this sucker negative more quickly...