Cary_Snow95
Member
Not liking this so far. Chaser is trending slower
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Stormsfury
Member
Lead wave a little weaker at 15hr, trailing wave a little west of 18z
Well NAM its put up or shut up time. looks about the same through hr15
Snowflowxxl
Member
The lead wave is also slower...
Jon
Member
Yep definitely weaker but placement is almost identical.
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lead wave is a little weaker, but a little slower as well. chaser is spot on the 18z spot for the most pqart hr 18
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not going to get too much in terms of run-run variability w/ the NAM inside 30-36 hours (as long as there's not a lot of diabatic heating involved), these changes thus far are pretty much noise
Stormsfury
Member
Chaser stronger and little more west at 21z
hr24 about the same with lead wave, slightly weaker, chaser about the same speed wise, but stronger at hr 24 vs 18z
Jon
Member
The northern stream “ball” of energy trended drastically more west this run, which is attracting the chaser so it’s not diving as far south.
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Minimal change, but it seems like the Hudson Bay vort is interacting with it again.
Chattownsnow
Member
the waves are definitely not interacting as much early on as the 18z NAM and much less than the 12Z NAM. Everything is slightly west however
Cary_Snow95
Member
Slower phase, less amped and east
main wave is strengthening a bit at hr27, the chaser is a bit slower, but also stronger than 18z run....Lets see how that plays out
Going to be a bad run.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Dang, NAM correcting to the globals! Guess actual data ingest, set it straight!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, the NAM is gonna phase just a tad later here on this run
Chattownsnow
Member
at hr30 it seems as though this run will take a step back from 18z and more so from 12z with the waves. trending to the global models for sure
Stormsfury
Member
Hr 33 precip blossoming over the Central Panhandle of Florida...lead wave actually looks stronger
So far... The Nam actually look about the same!!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
No, the NAM is not the same... Read the H5 maps, the waves are going to dance later...
low further away, precipitation (if this happens) will be more East versus 18z.
Jon
Member
More separation between chaser and shortwave due to “ball” of energy over the Great Lakes that trended West. This ball of energy interacts with the chaser and the chaser therefore can’t dive south. Leading to no phase or a late phase if it happens.
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All the energy should be well sampled by now. It’s a shame that the Nam is gonna cave.
lead wave is DEF stronger, but phases a bit later as well. hr 36
Welp... Oh well. We tried.
Precip looks good at 39
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NCSNOW
Member
Stormsfury
Member
Dual low again another one popped at hr39 east of Central FL
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the s/w backing off is going to allow our main lead wave to intensify and breathe bit as HM/Masiello mentioned earlier today...
The low placement is confusing the crap out of me.
Avalanche
Member
Wilmington to Manteo special!!
The low is closer but less precip thrown to the West. Make sense.