Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Webberweather53]

Yeah, the NAM is gonna phase just a tad later here on this run

 

[Chattownsnow]

at hr30 it seems as though this run will take a step back from 18z and more so from 12z with the waves. trending to the global models for sure

 

[Stormsfury]

Hr 33 precip blossoming over the Central Panhandle of Florida...lead wave actually looks stronger

 

[Meteorologist1999]

So far... The Nam actually look about the same!!

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

No, the NAM is not the same... Read the H5 maps, the waves are going to dance later...

 

[Shawn]

So far... The Nam actually look about the same!!

low further away, precipitation (if this happens) will be more East versus 18z.

 

[Jon]

How could this affect us?

More separation between chaser and shortwave due to “ball” of energy over the Great Lakes that trended West. This ball of energy interacts with the chaser and the chaser therefore can’t dive south. Leading to no phase or a late phase if it happens.


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[Rain Cold]

All the energy should be well sampled by now. It’s a shame that the Nam is gonna cave.

 

[Shawn]

Takes until hour 39 to go Neutral. Darn.

 

[deltadog03]

lead wave is DEF stronger, but phases a bit later as well. hr 36

 

[Mitch West]

Welp... Oh well. We tried.

 

[SD]

Precip looks good at 39

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[NCSNOW]

More separation between chaser and shortwave due to “ball” of energy over the Great Lakes that trended West. This ball of energy interacts with the chaser and the chaser therefore can’t dive south.

Leading to no phase or a late phase if it happens.

Be interesting to see if it's there in the a.m. or better yet close enough to flirt with trailing wave. Saw this on a model run few cycles back. UGS Wins IN Double OT. So Georgia folks got that going for them.

 

[Stormsfury]

Dual low again another one popped at hr39 east of Central FL

 

[Shawn]

00Z:

18Z:

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah the s/w backing off is going to allow our main lead wave to intensify and breathe bit as HM/Masiello mentioned earlier today...

 

[Mitch West]

The low placement is confusing the crap out of me.

 

[Avalanche]

Wilmington to Manteo special!!

 

[Shawn]

East with precip. Might still get to CAE, but Lexington is out.

Ugh!

 

[Mitch West]

The low is closer but less precip thrown to the West. Make sense.