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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

well, chaser is speeding up and our wave is turning toward (starting) neutral hr 78. over west OK and panhandle of tx
 
Tarheel1 said:
Anything West ant stronger with the vort S, is good for earlier phasing?
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Yep, the stronger vort max allows the wave to tilt negative sooner, which ultimately affects the surface low track by generating a more intense storm more quickly so this might come NW

Cary_Snow95 said:
Looks like the NE trough is significantly further east so far
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Yep, that is also good in slowing the waves down a little bit when they reach the east coast.
 
GFS
gfs_z500_mslp_us_17.png

CMC
gem_z500_mslp_us_17.png

EURO
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png
 
We obviously still have work to do, for sure...but I do like the changes still. .Trends are still a more tilt for the better on the wave and chaser wave. Its phasing quicker, as Webb said. We keep trending that way even further, we are going to see a better storm for many of us GA east and northeast
 
Webberweather53 said:
The phase occurs several hours earlier this run, definitely a trend we want to see continue
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I Agree.....the trends are much better for sure. did you notice the wave actually tilt better for us quicker, and keeps trending that way...
 
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