Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Stormsfury]

Good lord, are there hints of a Norlun trough in the isobaric kinks?

 

[RollTide18]

Great trends, trying not to get sucked back in but obviously much better. Would love to see a run like a few days ago that had a swath of snow across south Alabama.

 

[Mitch West]

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Getting close for us in central SC

 

[Storm5]

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[Storm5]

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[Tarheel1]

Good lord, are there hints of a Norlun trough in the isobaric kinks?

Slow down Webb! Lol.
What does this mean?

 

[Storm5]

Man if I lived in Raleigh I’d not doubt make the trip to the otter banks if a euro ukmet solution verifies

 

[Webberweather53]

Man if I lived in Raleigh I’d not doubt make the trip to the otter banks if a euro ukmet solution verifies

The UKMET solution actually crushes RDU w/ over 0.5" QPF under a deform band so there would be no need

 

[Tarheel1]

Man if I lived in Raleigh I’d not doubt make the trip to the otter banks if a euro ukmet solution verifies

Lol

 

[Storm5]

Euro ends up east of the ukmet but west of the gfs ...... down the middle it went


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[GeorgiaGirl]

Where the L pops has me interested. If only it'd straddle the coast a little more.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Euro ends up east of the ukmet but west of the gfs ...... down the middle it went


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I think you meant west of GFS

 

[Storm5]

Lol

Why is that funny , that’s what I’d do


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[Brett]

So does euro look good, I was busy doing something?

 

[Clayton Reid]

Even with all the good trends there is very little moisture to work with. We would have been better off with a southwest shortwave like Eric said, but I doubt we'll be this lucky by the time a shortwave does decide to crash into California.

 

[Tarheel1]

Why is that funny , that’s what I’d do


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The Otter banks, now that's funny

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol

This met can explain it better than I can, I'm not as familiar with it because we don't deal with norlun troughs here in NC except in the most rare cases and it's not entirely out of the question we see one here. Basically they're extrusions of low MSLP that extend NW from the parent low, they're extremely unpredictable and often poorly forecast by NWP, those underneath a norlun get absolutely hammered w/ snow.
http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html

 

[Webberweather53]

Even with all the good trends there is very little moisture to work with. We would have been better off with a southwest shortwave like Eric said, but I doubt we'll be this lucky by the time a shortwave does decide to crash into California.

Ffs, can you please drop the California s/w crap. I already gave you a butload of examples from historical storms that showed it actually works for practically the entire board and the pattern doesn't look like it's going to warm up anytime soon as we near mid month.

 

[Storm5]

True, ok I’d hope the ukmet verifies and head east if other guidance verifies . Good thing is there is three days left

 

[Clayton Reid]

Ffs, can you please drop the California s/w crap. I already gave you a butload of examples from historical storms that showed it actually works for practically the entire board and the pattern doesn't look like it's going to warm up anytime soon as we near mid month.

Okay. I was just saying. But what can we do to get a good moisture feed from this wave? Is it even possible?