Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Webberweather53]

Miraculously, it snowed all the way down to Cocoa, Florida today which is about halfway between Daytona Beach and Melbourne on the space coast

 

[Mitch West]

The next storm will probably drop 6 inches from newberry to Greenville to rock hill to charlotte while columbia gets a cold rain.

Yep

 

[DLI4SCwx]

Yep. Blame the ball. I mentioned this during the play by play of the 12km Nam, it was painful to watch. Though I didn’t expect NC to fair well, I figured it would cause a complete whiff.


Do you think that could possibly be an anamoly on this particular run? It is something we need to keep a watch for in future runs.

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[Cary_Snow95]

The RGEM Ptype maps and regular just precip maps look quite different for some reason

 

[deltadog03]

GFS is slower with the main wave and stronger, a smidge slower with the chaser through hr30

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Miraculously, it snowed all the way down to Cocoa, Florida today which is about halfway between Daytona Beach and Melbourne on the space coast

Hard to get mad about that. That's crazy to see happen.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah that jackpot zone on the 3k nam is spot on where Webb and 1300 have been saying.... not throwing in the towel here just yet

Screw even considering throwing in the towel, I'm gonna actually need more towels and pairs of pants to clean myself up after that 3km NAM run. As 1300 mentioned it's amazing we actually kept our snow despite the big shift towards the RGEM, however I doubt significant precipitation doesn't at least get to the US-1 corridor here

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Gfs looking better at 36 vs 18z

 

[Stormsfury]

Hr42 GFS slower with lead wave, precip SC coast

 

[RBR71]

Slight improvement

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[Webberweather53]

There's enough of a diabatic heating budget in this setup that even the subtle changes wrt s/w interaction upstream are dampened considerably or vis versa here...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The GFS continues to take small steps inland with GA/SC. In the end I think the southern coastal plain does see something, but it won't be what was depicted on the NAM...just light accumulations.

 

[Webberweather53]

Slight improvement

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Notice the northern stream wave actually leaves it alone more this run which allows our southern stream vort to slow down and amplify/tilt more quickly, I don't think this is as bad of a trend as some were making it out to be, which is consistent w/ what Masiello mentioned this morning

 

[Cary_Snow95]

So the low is west but the precip is slightly worse.. what am I missing here. H5 suggested more to the nw

 

[RBR71]

GFS refuses to come west with precip and maybe it's right but I've seen the GFS late to the party more times than not....

 

[Stormsfury]

So the low is west but the precip is slightly worse.. what am I missing here. H5 suggested more to the nw

Consolidated a lot of convection around the low center...

 

[Tarheel1]

Consolidated a lot of convection around the low center...

Would be a problem if the storm is stronger!?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

CMC improvement, GFS a little head scratcher with better slp location.

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That’s the 12z

 

[accu35]

Doesn't this kinda work like tropical system, stronger consolidated system is pulled away? Ikd, just kinda makes sense to me.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Nice jump West with the precip shield in NC on the GGEM. Moved towards the high resolution models with the 00Z run.

Where did you get the cmc? I don’t see it out yet

 

[RBR71]

That’s the 12z

Yeah I just noticed and deleted it....

 

[Stormsfury]

Consolidated a lot of convection around the low center...

One other thing to note. GFS has KCAE with a dewpoint of -3° at hr42. -3°TD!

 

[Xtreme Weather]

CMC LP at lower levels farther W so far see how the rest of the run goes only thru 36 hr

Edit little slower with lead vort this run

 

[Mitch West]

One other thing to note. GFS has KCAE with a dewpoint of -3° at hr42. -3°TD!

More disappointment. Lol

 

[Cary_Snow95]

CMC a little east

 

[mrdaddyman]

Where did you get the cmc? I don’t see it out yet

My bad. Wrong model run. I deleted my post.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'm being lazy but on what I see, the CMC starts west but ends up east in the most likely interior area to get a decent hit from this.

 

[Mitch West]

One other thing to note. GFS has KCAE with a dewpoint of -3° at hr42. -3°TD!

Ya had flurries flying around in the SE today with dew points around the same.. so I mean idk if that will cause as much as a problem as one would think.

 

[Stormsfury]

CMC a little east

Slower thru 36...what I got on TT

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Slower thru 36...what I got on TT

Look at precip maps. Just slightly east of 12z

 

[Tarheel1]

Look at precip maps. Just slightly east of 12z

Gotta look at H5

 

[RBR71]

Look at precip maps. Just slightly east of 12z

Yep

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[deltadog03]

Where is that damn SER when we need it??

 

[Mitch West]

Look at precip maps. Just slightly east of 12z

Wouldn't say slightly, that's a good bit.. dang

 

[RBR71]

ICON below and jackpot zone virtually unchanged right along I-95 corridor...

 

[Tarheel1]

Yep

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But heavier precip @ Savannah than previous run!

 

[Rain Cold]

ICON below and jackpot zone virtually unchanged right along I-95 corridor...

Icon screwed us in December. Going to have to do good work to earn that credibility back!

 

[Avalanche]

Triangle is out of the equation with this run. Hopefully tomorrow...

 

[RBR71]

Icon screwed us in December. Going to have to do good work to earn that credibility back!

Every model has screwed us at some point.... but for grins and giggles

 

[deltadog03]

Call map posted