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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Really? :|

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Yeah but that low needs to be just off the ga coast moving nne for anything significant inland . Not 300 miles offshore.


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makes more sense.. never seen a low bomb off that far off coast in the winter time... my instincts say no, but numerical models say yes..
 
EastAtlwx said:
Dude this made me laugh lol. This going to be really interesting to see how this plays out.
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I can not, and will not buy into it versus 50 Euro ensemble members. I just looked over and noticed there was maybe one member with 2-3 inches well inland (Eastern Midlands) that the 06z NAM just spit out.

But just to make me get early gray hair, and rethink my weather hobby enthusiasm, I am sure some way the 1 member of the EPS will be verified with the NAM. :|
 
Shawn said:
Well, the NAM is a bigger hit for some areas. and brought precipitation West. I give up!
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Wow!!! Makes you wanna sit back and laugh about it. Lol. Even through I don’t have a chance of getting anything off this it has been fun to track for sure !!!!
 
Would be something if everything trended west today. Normally when the Nam starts the rest follow lol.
 
Well, 06z RGEM is coming in with light snows almost to GSP, just to the East.
 
06z GFS about the same as 00z.
 
Brett said:
New Swiss model for Virginia has 12-16" over me
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Seriously if the RGEM's upper air dynamics are correct, there will be an area of 12-18 inches in NC and Virginia. Super dynamic storm. Would love to be in your location right now. Would not be surprised if you get thundersnow. In fact, I would expect it if the RGEM verifies.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Seriously if the RGEM's upper air dynamics are correct, there will be an area of 12-18 inches in NC and Virginia. Super dynamic storm. Would love to be in your location right now. Would not be surprised if you get thundersnow. In fact, I would expect it if the RGEM verifies.
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How strong will the winds be, yeah I get to plow it too, can't wait to make this money and track and enjoy the snow
 
The 6z GEFS made some significant improvements. The low placement and precip shield has been shifted about 50 miles west. The biggest net gain was in SE GA, FL, and southern SC. Those significant improvements at that short lead time with the ensembles (and the operational too) makes me think that there will be more corrections further upstream on the next run. Here are a couple of images from the GEFS:
snod.conus.png

qpf_acc.conus.png
 
whamby said:
Globals at this hour? who hugs those?
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I think we get hung up on EVERYTHING until all the models come to a general consensus (or the event is over). Unfortunately, the models will have some significant differences until the bitter end. Makes this a fun, and sometimes exasperating, hobby!
 
Me, Frosty and lots of others in WNC, Ala, Miss, Tenn and likely even NW Ga are pretty much out of this one but I hope those down East/South will get some good numbers
 
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Matthew East said this regarding the comparison to the Jan 2000 storm.

Not going to get the air of of the Deep South moisture injection that one had, most likely.

He did say it's possible the snow could get as far west as the Triad and Charlotte.
 
1300m said:
Do you know much about the WRF-ARW2? From what I can find, it sounds like it's recent performance may be decent but I honestly know nothing about it. In my opinion, I like it's depiction of the surface low consolidating faster (although I think it is too far east and probably too weak) and the precipitation shield the best of all the runs I've seen so far.

wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_seus_48.png
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Hmm, I'm not sure either but I would agree that's a fairly realistic depiction of what could happen here, snow possible getting as far west as the Triad and Charlotte, with the core of snow over US-1 &/or I-95 and a lot of mixing issues east of I-95... In general the synoptics seem to favor a slightly dampened version of January 2000 if anything, but I'd feel really good about this storm if I was in Fayetteville, Goldsboro-Wilson, Roanoke Rapids, & Raleigh-Durham right now... The Triangle was on the eastern edge of the heaviest snows in January 2000 so a little E or SE shift won't hurt us
 
I don't know really what to think this morning. You have the globals lock and step with one another and refusing to budge but then this morning having the RGEM on board with the NAM is promising. I have winter storm watches one County to my East and rah going with 1-2 here. Going to be fun to watch today especially the location and strength of our short waves and I mean really we are less than 24 hours away from things popping off down south

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1300m said:
Do you know much about the WRF-ARW2? From what I can find, it sounds like it's recent performance may be decent but I honestly know nothing about it. In my opinion, I like it's depiction of the surface low consolidating faster (although I think it is too far east and probably too weak) and the precipitation shield the best of all the runs I've seen so far.

wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_seus_48.png
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Has a nice heavy snow band over my area
 
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