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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Totals from NAM
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NWS CAE would have to issue some type of winter product for their eastern areas (Orangeburg, Bamberg, Clarendon, Barnwell, Sumter, Lee, and Calhoun counties)... At least I would think so?
 
Mr. Grinch said:
Precip farther west vs 6z on the 3k

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Yes sir, and I've noticed the trend from that run to the new run that the lead wave is slowing down a little more turning more negatively tilted quicker and the precipitation is further Inland in Georgia and the Carolinas and moving through a little bit slower. It will be interesting to see if the other models follow suit, or if this is just a little blip from the NAM, it definitely try to phase this quicker this run
 
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End of this run still has the precip moving north. Probably why the NWS of Mobile has a mention of possible flurried tomorrow.
 
Once again the 3km NAM shows more expansive precipitation further NW into NC than the 12km, not surprising given one can explicitly resolve convection while the other has a comparable resolution to the spectral, global NWP models and parameterizes it which affects the diabatic PV distribution in/around the SE US... We're nearly 36-48 hours of the event, the 3km NAM is probably not pulling our leg.
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Webberweather53 said:
Once again the 3km NAM shows more expansive precipitation further NW into NC than the 12km, not surprising given one can explicitly resolve convection while the other has a comparable resolution to the spectral, global NWP models and parameterizes it which affects the diabatic PV distribution in/around the SE US... We're nearly 36-48 hours of the event, the 3km NAM is probably not pulling our leg.
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So you think it's the one to go with?
 
NCSNOW said:
Been noticing and hoping that ends up being the case. Our backyards have razor thin maneuvering room if we want to get skiffed.
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Looks to me like Burlington could be the western goalpost. I think one of the reasons we could miss out is where the low is forming on the east side of southern FL instead of in the Gulf. We will miss out on some of the NW trend because of longitude. Just a rare thing.
 
Question for a met: Is this system considered a Miller B? It's definitely not a Miller A. The low forms so far south that it seems to be a unique storm.
 
packfan98 said:
Looks to me like Burlington could be the western goalpost. I think one of the reasons we could miss out is where the low is forming on the east side of southern FL instead of in the Gulf. We will miss out on some of the NW trend because of longitude. Just a rare thing.
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Its not that it forms in the Atlantic, it's that it forms off south Florida coast,instead of central and northern Florida. Can't keep enough northerly movement in its heading. We just need a wiggle or two. Not out of the realm of possibility.
 
WxSouth going with the NAM on Facebook.

As the new data comes in now, I'm working on the second update of the day for subscribers. Nothing's changed except to hit the snow and sleet a little more in Florida and southern middle and southeast Georgia. I think Euro and other global models are going to miss out on this one, as NAM and high resolution short range models show this entire scenario the best. It begins early in the morning in northern Florida and rapidly expands into southern and eastern Georgia as snow and sleet. With temps in the 20's across the board, it will be a nightmare on roads. Valdosta, to Tifton, east of 75 all the way to Vidalia and Savannah. There could be some freezing drizzle mixed in esp. where precip is light on the western shield but mostly this is sleet and snow, and several inches are likely. Its possible an historic snowstorm is let loose in southern and eastern Georgia, and northern Florida but not quite confident just yet to call it since a late minute wobble could mean the difference in 2" and 9 or 10".
 
I like the NAM's placement of the slp closer to coast and the expansive precip shield to the NW, I can buy that. But I'm not buying those insane pressures it keeps spitting out, looks like a TC off Hatteras

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Was hoping Orange, Chatham, and Wake could get in on the action but most model consensus is that it stays east of there. If I were in Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Greenville I would collect my chips, cash out, and head for the exit door. Congrats to whoever cashes in!!!
 
Avalanche said:
Was hoping Orange, Chatham, and Wake could get in on the action but most model consensus is that it stays east of there. If I were in Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Greenville I would collect my chips, cash out, and head for the exit door. Congrats to whoever cashes in!!!
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You have a chance of seeing something, both Webber and 1300m along with Matthew East have said that snow could get as far west of CLT/GSO.
 
BHS1975 said:
Wouldn’t the low pop here under the deep convection?
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If we were tracking a tropical system I'd say absolutely but even so that convection argues lowering pressures. Inverted trough extending from slp maybe?

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