Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Brett]

The pattern actually does support an Atlantic bomb but who knows how far west it gets and how soon it occurs. May not be enough outside of East NC/Coastal SC/SE VA. Still, been interesting.

I'm hoping the U.K. Will be right lol

 

[Clayton Reid]

Fwiw even though the nam is a little faster than its previous run, it is still slower than the GFS or CMC

That's good

 

[Webberweather53]

Our s/w is definitely stronger but a tick faster this run in part because the upper level trough off California is a little further west and is thus amping the ridge on the west coast

 

[Mitch West]

Easily 12-15:1, with surface temps ~25F you get 15:1 and it's possible we could be even colder than that during the event if it were to transpire in the first place

So Eric, what would around 0.10 equal up to with a 15:1 ratio

 

[Webberweather53]

So Eric, what would around 0.10 equal up to with a 15:1 ratio

About 1.5" of snow... 15*0.1=1.5

 

[Mitch West]

About 1.5" of snow... 15*0.1=1.5

Ahh thanks, simple math. Lol

 

[BHS1975]

I think we would be in the teens here


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[Cary_Snow95]

how do you do the math just curious?

It shows you in his comment.. Multiply 15 by the amount of qpf

 

[Tarheel1]

how do you do the math just curious?

15:1 means 1" of qpf = 15" of snow
.5 qpf = 7.5" of snow

 

[Showmeyourtds]

I live in midtown and we got 4-5 inches. We haven’t got that much in over 10 years

This- I live in Decatur & received the same thing...just depends on where you define Atlanta

 

[Brett]

It shows you in his comment.. Multiply 15 by the amount of qpf

I know my bad, I wasn't looking at it correctly lol

 

[Brett]

So
If that's the case I would do great

 

[Brett]

15:1 means 1" of qpf = 15" of snow
.5 qpf = 7.5" of snow

Thanks buddy

 

[justin2k23]

Do we have consistency with temps amongst the models for this event? I know availability of QPF seems to be the issue, but how are temps looking, specifically macon-ish back towards savannah during the time this event is happening?

 

[$alt]

NAM was a slight step West with the SLP off the Southern FL coast trying to form.

 

[$alt]

 

[Brett]

Looks good

 

[$alt]

 

[BHS1975]

Where will it phase?


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[$alt]

Where will it phase?


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Hard to tell. Likely too late, but the surface reflection might be better versus say, the bad reflections (based on h5) from other modeling.