• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Brick Tamland said:
So you think it's the one to go with?
Click to expand...

I think the models to go w/ are the high res guidance like the 3 km NAM, RGEM, & HRRR when it emerges, they have higher resolutions which are better equipped to handle/resolve the mid-level WAA (which may end up being even stronger than they forecast) while they're also more adept to resolving convection and the diabatic PV generated from it which will ultimately change the distribution and northwestward extent of precipitation in NC. As Masiello correctly pointed out, if indeed the NAM is overzealously deepening the low and consolidating the convection too closely to the low pressure center this could actually aid in moisture transport NWward across the piedmont and coastal plain and the precipitation shield may end up even more intense and further NW because the the blocking of low-level southeasterly inflow into the Carolinas and generation of large-scale descent in the region surrounding the convection leads to dry air in the lowest kilometer or so of the atmosphere as we've seen on the GFS soundings...
 
Brett said:
Who thinks we see thundersnow?
Click to expand...
This was answered yesterday and most likely someone will, could easily be you. We are glad to have you but with all due respect temper the mby post just a little today especially when business really picks up. Thanks man and good luck!

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
This was answered yesterday and most likely someone will, could easily be you. We are glad to have you but with all due respect temper the mby post just a little today especially when business really picks up. Thanks man and good luck!

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Ok thanks
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think the models to go w/ are the high res guidance like the 3 km NAM, RGEM, & HRRR when it emerges, they have higher resolutions which are better equipped to handle/resolve the mid-level WAA (which may end up being even stronger than they forecast) while they're also more adept to resolving convection and the diabatic PV generated from it which will ultimately change the distribution and northwestward extent of precipitation in NC. As Masiello correctly pointed out, if indeed the NAM is overzealously deepening the low and consolidating the convection too closely to the low pressure center this could actually aid in moisture transport NWward across the piedmont and coastal plain and the precipitation shield may end up even more intense and further NW because the the blocking of low-level southeasterly inflow into the Carolinas and generation of large-scale descent in the region surrounding the convection leads to dry air in the lowest kilometer or so of the atmosphere as we've seen on the GFS soundings...
Click to expand...

You can apply the same general concept to Miller B/overrunning events when we often observe large clusters of convection over the Gulf of Mexico which block moisture transport northeast into the Carolinas and upper portions of the SE US. Same physical mechanism is at work here...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think the models to go w/ are the high res guidance like the 3 km NAM, RGEM, & HRRR when it emerges, they have higher resolutions which are better equipped to handle/resolve the mid-level WAA (which may end up being even stronger than they forecast) while they're also more adept to resolving convection and the diabatic PV generated from it which will ultimately change the distribution and northwestward extent of precipitation in NC. As Masiello correctly pointed out, if indeed the NAM is overzealously deepening the low and consolidating the convection too closely to the low pressure center this could actually aid in moisture transport NWward across the piedmont and coastal plain and the precipitation shield may end up even more intense and further NW because the the blocking of low-level southeasterly inflow into the Carolinas and generation of large-scale descent in the region surrounding the convection leads to dry air in the lowest kilometer or so of the atmosphere as we've seen on the GFS soundings...
Click to expand...
Which is why I'm getting a touch excited lol. I think NAM is correct with slp placement but I'm not buying those insane pressures, wrapping up like a TC which as you explain cuts precip down. Cautiously optimistic

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
At hr 21, the RGEM's surface low is noticeably west of 6z. Let's see where it goes from here:
prateptype.us_se.png
 
metwannabe said:
Which is why I'm getting a touch excited lol. I think NAM is correct with slp placement but I'm not buying those insane pressures, wrapping up like a TC which as you explain cuts precip down. Cautiously optimistic

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I think you're in a real good spot, I would be worried about sleet mixing in along/east of I-95 if more WAA and precip occurs than forecast...
 
RGEM early looks to stay the course, supports NAM

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Well, the RGEM ended up better for FL, GA, southern SC but the max precip shifted east in NC. Looks like a tight gradient over Wake County.
 
Somebody dancing close to the mix line is going to get clobbered in ENC
6feb3c42c8fe7e600a32995e0e567edf.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
NWS RAH leaving Wake county out of the winter storm watch lol... There's definitely enough evidence to at least put us in it and if it doesn't look like much will happen just upgrade to a winter weather advisory
 
If you guys pay attention to all models. Snowfall Totals are increasing for Ga and Nc but less moisture in South Carolina why is that?
 
Webberweather53 said:
NWS RAH leaving Wake county out of the winter storm watch lol... There's definitely enough evidence to at least put us in it and if it doesn't look like much will happen just upgrade to a winter weather advisory
Click to expand...
Yeah I think it's funny actually forecasting 1-2 here but left Halifax out of Watch also.
Looking at RGEM stronger lead wave, still some separation which as you've mentioned us better than a phase now... still think it could easily shift 50-75 miles west. Now let's see if globals have a clue
69e543de1c6122e45a609225bfc0546a.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
4a20b9422f4458fdcee4930c3244c9b6.jpg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top