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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Shawn said:
Hard to tell. Likely too late, but the surface reflection might be better versus say, the bad reflections (based on h5) from other modeling.
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If and when it phases, depending where, that in turn should help pull it further West and traverse the coast Northward vs. a strictly OTS solution correct?
 
DLI4SCwx said:
If and when it phases, depending where, that in turn should help pull it further West and traverse the coast Northward vs. a strictly OTS solution correct?
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A full out phase, earlier than later will bring it closer to the coast and get precipitation back into the Midlands of South Carolina. The UKMET alluded to this scenario (with a late phase) getting precipitation to about KCAE. As the phase occurs, precipitation will blossom more so than a short wave spawning the low on it's own. Therefore, the large precipitation shield will effect more areas inland, even though the low track is not very optimal.

What you want to see is an earlier phase, to allow the low pressure to deepen quicker and get yanked Westward throwing moisture well inland.
 
Shawn said:
A full out phase, earlier than later will bring it closer to the coast and get precipitation back into the Midlands of South Carolina. The UKMET alluded to this scenario (with a late phase) getting precipitation to about KCAE. As the phase occurs, precipitation will blossom more so than a short wave spawning the low on it's own. Therefore, the large precipitation shield will effect more areas inland, even though the low track is not very optimal.

What you want to see is an earlier phase, to allow the low pressure to deepen quicker and get yanked Westward throwing moisture well inland.
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Yes ok thanks
 
Stormlover said:
HUN is now saying temps as low as 5 by tues morning...so if we had snow cover, we would have had sub zero temps after all.
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The reason its getting so cold is the same reason we wont have snow. So its not really a fair comparison. We would need much less northern stream to allow a chance at snow. Less northern stream puts your temps back where we need them 20's to 30's. You could then add snow pack to those temps and possibly get to single digits.
 
This should be west
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That's probably the biggest shift i've seen on the GFS regarding this storm so far. Snow now clipping the coast of the Carolinas
 
The surface reflection is likely wrong. It's wanting to allude to what the NAM does, but phasing occurs a bit earlier. The main SLP will likely be the one you see off the FL coast and it would creep upward and to the West as the negative tilt occurs. Have this run, but phase it even 12 hours sooner, and you have moisture back to at least the GSP area.
 
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