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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

So the TWC is hugging the globals and only having about 1-3" for the the coastal Carolinas with a small pocket of 3-5" for SE Virginia. Jim Cantore said that precip will most likely not reach Raleigh.
 
One thing I do know regardless of the synoptic setup almost always precipitation seems to verify NW of the forecast. It may not happen this time but I don't think it can be ignored.

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So, is there something about the setup that would make someone favor the globals versus the NAM and RGEM, or is it just a case of this area usually doesn't get snow like the short range models show, so go with the ones that show the least?
 
metwannabe said:
One thing I do know regardless of the synoptic setup almost always precipitation seems to verify NW of the forecast. It may not happen this time but I don't think it can be ignored.

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It looked like the 06z RGEM and 06z NAM 3k were trying to do just that. There was a little more precipitation NW vs 00z runs.


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Brick Tamland said:
So, is there something about the setup that would make someone favor the globals versus the NAM and RGEM, or is it just a case of this area usually doesn't get snow like the short range models show, so go with the ones that show the least?
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I think one of the main problems is the Euro hasn't budged and it makes it difficult for them to pull the trigger on a forecast with snow west of that. And let's be honest the Euro may very well win out I'm still sitting here thinking I could get nothing or a significant storm, I'd really hate to be in NWS office shoes

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metwannabe said:
I don't know really what to think this morning. You have the globals lock and step with one another and refusing to budge but then this morning having the RGEM on board with the NAM is promising. I have winter storm watches one County to my East and rah going with 1-2 here. Going to be fun to watch today especially the location and strength of our short waves and I mean really we are less than 24 hours away from things popping off down south

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I remember one time the globals were all in agreement on a foot at my house and the mesoscale models were NW. We all said, no the globals will beat those silly mesoscale models. Hours of rain and sleet later the mesoscale models won. .
 
Mr. Grinch said:
I remember one time the globals were all in agreement on a foot at my house and the mesoscale models were NW. We all said, no the globals will beat those silly mesoscale models. Hours of rain and sleet later the mesoscale models won. .
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Similarly in December 2017 when the Euro incessantly insisted on the heaviest snows falling over Greensboro/Winston-Salem even as the event was happening it ended up in the foothills and mountains...
 
Mr. Grinch said:
I remember one time the globals were all in agreement on a foot at my house and the mesoscale models were NW. We all said, no the globals will beat those silly mesoscale models. Hours of rain and sleet later the mesoscale models won. .
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I posted this on the other board as a response to a similar post of yours. In that situation, the issue was warming aloft as opposed to a lack of precipitation making it to us. I don’t know if that matters, but it is a significant difference between the two examples.
 
Mr. Grinch said:
I remember one time the globals were all in agreement on a foot at my house and the mesoscale models were NW. We all said, no the globals will beat those silly mesoscale models. Hours of rain and sleet later the mesoscale models won. .
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I recall that happening before, too. I think the most recent storm in December the globals showed a lot of snow at first and the NAM said nope, and then the globals backed down.
 
Rain Cold said:
I posted this on the other board as a response to a similar post of yours. In that situation, the issue was warming aloft as opposed to a lack of precipitation making it to us. I don’t know if that matters, but it is a significant difference between the two examples.
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The warming aloft is also related to the northwesterly extent of the precipitation and significant snowfall that occurred in that event (& really in general), because the mid-level WAA was underplayed by the globals (likely in part related to their coarse resolution) not only did the precipitation type here change but it also shifted the axis of heaviest snow NWward because the warm air advection (which is related to lift) was pushed further NW, those two aren't mutually exclusive....
 
Living in the southern half of wake county, I can count on multiple fingers the last few years that the globals pegged us for decent snow right up to the last few hours to only have the NAM tell the real story in the end. Love the EURO for sniffing out storms in the LR but when it gets down to the last minute the hir res models will tell the story again, especially where there is uncertainty in the finer details. EURO may be right but until the NAM caves to it I trust it more this close to game time
 
Rain Cold said:
I posted this on the other board as a response to a similar post of yours. In that situation, the issue was warming aloft as opposed to a lack of precipitation making it to us. I don’t know if that matters, but it is a significant difference between the two examples.
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This event is one of the very few, and seemingly awkward times where stronger mid-level WAA than forecast will actually result in more snow along the US-1 & I-95 corridors and not a precipitation type change.... Again WAA is proportional to lift in the levels where it's occurring, and consequently this is also where the dendritic growth zone is located and also where the bergeron and collision-coalescence processes are occurring in clouds. Therefore, more lift here results in more collision-coalesence and accelerates the bergeron process, so we get more precipitation... It's all connected.
 
Still clinging to hope here in Columbia, SC. Maybe we can get enough light snow in here to cause a dusting to half inch. Making the ground white would make me happy. Not even trying to be greedy here. If some of these short range models verify then it may happen.
 
1300m said:
Wasn't that January 2017?
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Yes, I remember that all the globals and the forecasts had me at around 6-10". I ended up with a sleet storm and like two inches of snow at the end while my best friend who lived ten miles northwest of me got the snow.
 
In 2000 the low popped in n fl and moved ne off the sc coast. The nam pops it of s fl and moves it ne farther offshore.
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Webberweather53 said:
This event is one of the very few, and seemingly awkward times where stronger mid-level WAA than forecast will actually result in more snow along the US-1 & I-95 corridors and not a precipitation type change.... Again WAA is proportional to lift in the levels where it's occurring, and consequently this is also where the dendritic growth zone is located and also where the bergeron and collision-coalescence processes are occurring in clouds. Therefore, more lift here results in more collision-coalesence and accelerates the bergeron process, so we get more precipitation... It's all connected.
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Thanks for the good explanation. We really oughtta see a convergence in the guidance starting at 12z, I would think. If the NAM and RGEM step toward the globals, it’s going to be tough to expect appreciable snow here, barring a last minute miracle.
 
Not that it means much but the SREF Plumes just went up for CAE which normally means the NAM is about to come in more West. Atleast that's what I noticed the last 4 runs.
 
Rain Cold said:
Thanks for the good explanation. We really oughtta see a convergence in the guidance starting at 12z, I would think. If the NAM and RGEM step toward the globals, it’s going to be tough to expect appreciable snow here, barring a last minute miracle.
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Agreed and if the rgem was not on board with The NAM I'd be concerned that the nam is about to cave to the globals but I don't think so, we shall see shortly.

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Rain Cold said:
I posted this on the other board as a response to a similar post of yours. In that situation, the issue was warming aloft as opposed to a lack of precipitation making it to us. I don’t know if that matters, but it is a significant difference between the two examples.
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Webb said it better. But you can look at the 700mb winds on the globals vs the mesoscale and see they are clearly differing in that level thus you get an appreciable snow vs nothing. The 6z gfs for example pins a 700mb convergence axis right to the coast and the kills and inland moisture transport. The mesoscales set this boundary up just west of us1 with much more inland precip. Climo says the mesoscale idea is correct to me

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Tracking winter storms and driving are hazardous to one's Health, with that said just glancing, when I'm stopped at stop lights of course, would appear the low pressure maybe just a smidge East but the precip field pretty much same spot and colder on Northwest side with snow deep in this Georgia although that could be virga.

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metwannabe said:
Tracking winter storms and driving are hazardous to one's Health, with that said just glancing, when I'm stopped at stop lights of course, would appear the low pressure maybe just a smidge East but the precip field pretty much same spot and colder on Northwest side with snow deep in this Georgia although that could be virga.

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Lol southernwx model viewing app is a must

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Looks better for FL, GA, SC. Precip not as far west in NC as 6z, but still a good hit for I-95 corridor. The low crept a little closer to the coast and looks to be in a great spot for RDU east.
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