Snowflowxxl
Member
What UKMET have
Thanks brickFrom met Chris Simmons on Facebook. I'll take it.
![]()
You do know that's deltadog right lol... also there is a thread now with his, and any others who dare, map.From met Chris Simmons on Facebook. I'll take it.
![]()
What is it showing?Swiss model is a good hit fwiw
Good hit for who exactlyUKMET appears to also be a good hit!
You do know that's deltadog right lol... also there is a thread now with his, and any others who dare, map.
I was wondering the same thing. Heheeh
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
What is it showing?
Wish I had access to good maps between hr 48 and 60 but yeah I'll take it that's for sureUKMET appears to also be a good hit!
Wish I had access to good maps between hr 48 and 60 but yeah I'll take it that's for sure
![]()
![]()
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Trailer wave is almost gonna come in over the stovepipe unless it's moving east. Interested to see any vort over GL and if it messes with trailer tommorow like 0z nam.
Can you go into further detail, I’m trying to learn how things interact at H5 better, it’s my weakness esp vort charts which isn’t good because it’s the blueprint for everything that happens below.As Jon correctly pointed out on twitter, losing the phase w/ the northern stream wave actually makes this event look more like Jan 2000, and the more it leaves our main s/w alone, the better...
Can you go into further detail, I’m trying to learn how things interact at H5 better, it’s my weakness esp vort charts which isn’t good because it’s the blueprint for everything that happens below.
Would this just be WRT QPF over North Carolina.. how does this effect areas further inland like the midlands of sc towards Augusta.? Would we want this lead wave further west as possible and how much significant change can we get at this lead time?Essentially what's happening is the northern stream disturbance effectively acts to "kick" our southern stream wave faster out to the east despite the fact that they partially phase. As the northern stream backs off more, this allows our main s/w to consolidate more effectively and cut-off from the main streamflow. I mean if you really think about it how many times do we look to shortwaves on the west coast (like last week for ex) wanting a wave to dig and get out and separate itself from the main streamflow. Similarly here, the longer this wave is left alone, the more apt it is to slow down and not get "kicked" by the northern stream wave, and thus it has more space to amplify, and tilt which will ultimately result in a January 2000 solution if the models keep trending towards a slower northern stream wave. I can't believe I was so oblivious to this earlier haha....
Would this just be WRT QPF over North Carolina.. how does this effect areas further inland like the midlands of sc towards Augusta.?
So are we wanting to see a trend away from a phase now, in order to get the lead wave out front to amplify and tilt faster? Trends tonight seemed to slow the NS energy a good bit. Even the nam backed offAreas west of I-77 and NW of I-85 in NC probably not a whole lot given they're pretty far outside the legitimate margin of error here, however if the wave continues to amplify and tilt negative the low pressure center will intensify more quickly because the trough is able extract more momentum from the mid-latitude jet and mutually amplify the antecedent low-level vortex. The large diabatic heating contribution w/ this storm could partially or even completely mask the impacts wrt longwave trough orientation on surface low & precipitation track/distribution esp if only relatively subtle changes are observed aloft...
So are we wanting to see a trend away from a phase now, in order to get the lead wave out front to amplify and tilt faster? Trends tonight seemed to slow the NS energy a good bit. Even the nam backed off
I’m guessing nothing good cause no one is posting about it lol00z Euro what is it showing?
It’s about the same as the 12 z run.00z Euro what is it showing?
UGLY![]()
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Don’t Shoot the messenger. Lol.UGLY
Old run 12z. Looked like its less upstream about the same in SC![]()
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Old run 12z. Looked like its less upstream about the same in SC
That is probably a little bit of upslope precip.I wonder what it’s picking up across north east ga? Or was that today’s dusting?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...The cold
surface ridge of high pressure to our north will continue to
slowly sink southward to the coast by noon Wednesday. The cold and
dry airmass will remain entrenched across the central gulf coast
region with much below normal temperatures continuing into Tuesday
night. An interesting upper level shortwave feature embedded in
the longwave trough will approach the region from the northwest
Tuesday evening, and pass quickly over the forecast area late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will bring some mid and
high level clouds above 8500 feet to the area Tuesday night along
with mid layer lifting. A very dry airmass will remain below 8500
feet, but if the snow falling in the saturated layer aloft
survives it`s journey through the dry layer to the surface we
could see a few flurries across portions of the forecast area.
Will leave mention of flurries out for now pending better high-
resolution model data on future runs.
Yeah this ain’t nowhere near January 2000. Why was it even brought up in the first place.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk