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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

1300m said:
For a reputable global model to jump west that much at this late hour should tell folks all they need to know about the complexity of this setup, and also that the pattern supports a much further west solution.
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So what your saying is meteorology over modelology

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12 GEFS has a significant trend west.
6z
qpf_acc.conus.png

New 12z:
qpf_acc.conus.png
 
1300m and Web great calls on the us 1 to I 95 jackpots when globals argued against yesterday, used your skill set. Loving trends, need that block to be a nudge stronger and get this pup 10 to 35 mikes futher west with precip so I can get the grass blades covered up. Course if it wants to shift another 50 to 60 and jackpot I'll take that to.
 
NCSNOW said:
1300m and Web great calls on the use to I 95 jackpots when globals argued against yesterday, used your skill set. Loving trends, need that block to be a nudge stronger and get this pup 10 to 35 mikes futher west with precip so I can get the grass blades covered up. Course if it wants to shift another 50 to 60 and jackpot I'll take that to.
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We are at the point where each model suite shifts the axis west by about 1 county's width. I look for that to continue and look much like Webber's call map after the 0z runs tonight. I still think that Alamance county will be the cutoff for anything measurable though.
 
Where's Larry? He deserves to be in this excitement! He's getting crushed by almost every model run today!? Maybe he passed out? But his analysis for his area, and other areas that are going to be seeing a once in a lifetime event, is very much wanted and needed!
 
On current radar, there is some pretty robust snow South of TX and LA! Is that part of something for tomorrow's storm?
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Holy crap, that gets precip all the way back to the foothills. That can't be right....can it?
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Probably not. It always amps systems way too much with too much precip. Just matches the trends west and where the main cutoff will be for significant precip.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Holy crap, that gets precip all the way back to the foothills. That can't be right....can it?
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Doubt it. That's even more of an outlier than the NAM! But I wish it could happen
 
Tarheel1 said:
On current radar, there is some pretty robust snow South of TX and LA! Is that part of something for tomorrow's storm?
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It is it's own thing. I bet anyone off the coast is seeing a good snow! Something to note though is that no model picked this area up, and I would note that is a lot of convection in the Gulf and a lot of potential. Let's see what the result is, but the HRRR FWIW is pulling moisture way west of even the NAM. It's also seeing some other moisture and areas of precip the NAM isn't. Is it crazy, or are some going to see more snow than they think they are?
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
It is it's own thing. I bet anyone off the coast is seeing a good snow! Something to note though is that no model picked this area up, and I would note that is a lot of convection in the Gulf and a lot of potential. Let's see what the result is, but the HRRR FWIW is pulling moisture way west of even the NAM. It's also seeing some other moisture and areas of precip the NAM isn't. Is it crazy, or are some going to see more snow than they think they are?
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png
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I'm on the outside looking in. But who knows, will be fun to wake up and look at radar tomorrow AM
 
packfan98 said:
We are at the point where each model suite shifts the axis west by about 1 county's width. I look for that to continue and look much like Webber's call map after the 0z runs tonight. I still think that Alamance county will be the cutoff for anything measurable though.
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Yeah, I agree with this, (west of Raleigh to Burlington area) will see some flurries to a dusting at the outside, jackpot appears to be US1 to me or wherever the mix line is.( just north and west of there). West of GSO/KINT will likely be SOL
 
ForsythSnow said:
It is it's own thing. I bet anyone off the coast is seeing a good snow! Something to note though is that no model picked this area up, and I would note that is a lot of convection in the Gulf and a lot of potential. Let's see what the result is, but the HRRR FWIW is pulling moisture way west of even the NAM. It's also seeing some other moisture and areas of precip the NAM isn't. Is it crazy, or are some going to see more snow than they think they are?
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png
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Also, one would think with all that extra precip in the gulf, maybe it can get tapped into earlier?
 
I really don't want this coming to much more west because it would not make much of a difference GSO and west for accumulating snow anyway but might screw up the mix for those from Raleigh east
 
metwannabe said:
Is it me or does it look like our short waves are further west then initialized by most model guidance, the trailing wave definitely looks further sw...
f5b87ed30082f7b92dae3e2ce06b9630.gif


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If that's true, then something is going to have to drastically shift. Too bad the HRRR doesn't go that far out, as I'm sure it may be the first to catch onto a change.
 
ForsythSnow said:
If that's true, then something is going to have to drastically shift. Too bad the HRRR doesn't go that far out, as I'm sure it may be the first to catch onto a change.
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Yeah you are pulling for an earlier phase and big west shift surprise, I'm pulling for more separation stronger lead wave to keep it east lol

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Brett said:
What will that mean ?
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Chance it could go neutral or negative tilt sooner, maybe pop slp sooner and more west, big IF's... also the waves look closer to me, earlier phase Maybe? Too early to tell...

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1300m said:
12z WRF-ARW2 holds serve. This is really what I think will transpire largely in regards to the precipitation shield. Totals east of I-95 will be reduced due to sleet.

wrf-arw2_asnow_seus_48.png
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This matches my thinking as well. Beleive the cutoff line will be sharp and a dusting will make back to western forsyth and Davie. County area, think Randolph gets 4 plus extreme northeastern part and trims down to 2 on eastern side. Great 15 to 1 ratios and I'm betting the .25 kisses ne county line. .15 on far eastern side.
My micro climate forecast and I may adjust a smidgen latter tonight.
 
1300m said:
12z WRF-ARW2 holds serve. This is really what I think will transpire largely in regards to the precipitation shield. Totals east of I-95 will be reduced due to sleet.

wrf-arw2_asnow_seus_48.png
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Boy if this verifies my mother in Valdosta is going to freak and not be prepared. They did finally put up an advisory for a smidge of precip though. She had no idea this was even a possibility. Nuts
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah you are pulling for an earlier phase and big west shift surprise, I'm pulling for more separation stronger lead wave to keep it east lol

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Yeah, there is only so far west the snow can be pulled before it starts screwing people with sleet and ice.
BHS1975 said:
Man we are analyzing this thing to death.


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It's going to get way worse until hour 0.
 
Who has the Euro play-by-play? I'm interested to see if it's following the mesoscale leaders?
 
metwannabe said:
Is it me or does it look like our short waves are further west then initialized by most model guidance, the trailing wave definitely looks further sw...
f5b87ed30082f7b92dae3e2ce06b9630.gif


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Yeah, no models had that thing near TX panhandle! Could have huge implications!
 
With the earlier phase, could that mean that moisture would be further west.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah you are pulling for an earlier phase and big west shift surprise, I'm pulling for more separation stronger lead wave to keep it east lol

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Poor Robert. That NW trend is a killer for a lot of people if that is right.


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