ForsythSnow
Moderator
12Z
0Z
0Z
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, we better buckle up...
by 100's of miles...looks like they'll be dancing Colorado by the looks of that mapIs it me or does it look like our short waves are further west then initialized by most model guidance, the trailing wave definitely looks further sw...
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Somebody got good maps, this looks amazing
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Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Much better so far
Better but still not there yet. Deep precip stays close to the coast.Somebody got good maps, this looks amazing
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Is it me or does it look like our short waves are further west then initialized by most model guidance, the trailing wave definitely looks further sw...
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This is great real-time analyzing it's definitely interesting
It would be so nice to see one of these models really beef up QPF. But they're mostly still meager.
packfan98
Moderator
Ryan Maue | weather.usVerified account @RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
Watching the ECMWF model arrive for the afternoon update. So far, the incipient wave or whirl explosively intensifies off Florida coast from 1000 mb to 981 mb in only 6-hours. I could be an expert in these storms from my PhD -- this one is at the apex on any strength scale.
Watching the ECMWF model arrive for the afternoon update. So far, the incipient wave or whirl explosively intensifies off Florida coast from 1000 mb to 981 mb in only 6-hours. I could be an expert in these storms from my PhD -- this one is at the apex on any strength scale.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The Euro wants to hook me back in. It's getting close to what areas further west (but not too much further west) want to see.
packfan98
Moderator
Someone correct me if I'm wrong. Chances are that the low will not get as strong as quickly as the Euro just showed in Ryan M.'s tweet. This would argue for the precip to be further NW like Anthony M.'s tweets were alluding to? (Wishcasting a little maybe)
MichaelJ
Member
If it phases earlier to the west and goes Neutral tilt, it will come more west but will lower the snow totals and increase the sleet in Eastern NC, SC
RollTide18
Member
If they dance over CO instead of AR? What would be the ramifications?
PennyForYoutThoughts
Member
On radar looks to be snowing along the immediate coast of Louisiana.(not sure if it's actually making it all the way to the surface.)
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Final totals this run. Of course the link to the euro isn't found again so I had to manually enter the url.
I would think an earlier phase. I think the earlier it phases, the more mixing issues there will be at the coast and jackpot will move further west towards I95. Not wish casting either as I am currently south of I85
looks like some moderate precip to me. I would think it's hitting the ground
Well every model shifted west to some degree, no eastward movement...Final totals this run. Of course the link to the euro isn't found again so I had to manually enter the url.
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Can someone post the Euro Ptype in SC??
DadOfJax
Member
Not a thing for AL.
packfan98
Moderator
Baby steps to Columbia.
PennyForYoutThoughts
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
That's a good 50 mile shift in the snow shield compared to 0z
Showmeyourtds
Member
For those questioning if that precip off the LA coast is legit, station South Marsh 268 on WU is reporting snow.
Got to think Rah NWS afternoon package will update the Watch area, I'd think at least 1 tier of counties west... not much lead time to play with here
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CoreyTheSecond
Member
If this keeps shifting west could Atlanta Ga be in play for a little snow?
SimeonNC
Member
Very unlikely.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It would have to phase in Texas or Louisiana. Not happening. Macon at the furthest I believe.
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Atlanta is not getting anything from this(outside of maybe flurries). Folks in AL and most of GA really need to just give this one up this time. If the models aren't showing you getting anything now within 24 hours of the event, you're probably not actually getting anything. The models aren't that incompetent. They're not missing something that can magically shift this a couple hundred miles.
packfan98
Moderator
I would think so. Every model now has Wake getting snow, right? That's where the cutoff should be at least for the Watches. West of there you could go with a special weather statement and issue an advisory if needed in the morning.
Winter storm watches along the coast for the rare southern snowstorm. And here is maps for the areas to be impacted.
Latest @National Weather Service
Latest @National Weather Service
packfan98
Moderator
Allan Huffman @RaleighWx
Ok here you go. Again this forecast is sensitive and updates may have to be made tomorrow and the forecast could change rapidly tomorrow/tomorrow pm so stay tuned.
Ok here you go. Again this forecast is sensitive and updates may have to be made tomorrow and the forecast could change rapidly tomorrow/tomorrow pm so stay tuned.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We are literally one baby step away from January 2000 2.0, just a very modest increase in tilting of the s/w over GA and expansion of the precip shield over FL and southern GA and it will be virtually a carbon copy...
ERA-20C 0z January 25 2000 500 hpa vorticity, geopotential height, and wind
ERA-20C 0z January 25 2000 500 hpa vorticity, geopotential height, and wind
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like the last Euro. I think zone A is coming west, more like the NAM.Allan Huffman @RaleighWx
Ok here you go. Again this forecast is sensitive and updates may have to be made tomorrow and the forecast could change rapidly tomorrow/tomorrow pm so stay tuned.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Allan Huffman @RaleighWx
Ok here you go. Again this forecast is sensitive and updates may have to be made tomorrow and the forecast could change rapidly tomorrow/tomorrow pm so stay tuned.
I can live with that for now, I'm well aware Huffman knows what he's doing and me and him have had some good discussions on this latelt. At least he's not like Brad P or the other local mets and NWS who kept all the snow east of I-95 last night lmao
I'll take that 1-2 inches.Allan Huffman @RaleighWx
Ok here you go. Again this forecast is sensitive and updates may have to be made tomorrow and the forecast could change rapidly tomorrow/tomorrow pm so stay tuned.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I'm one county away from the dusting to an inch on his map!!! One more shift west, it's game on!Allan Huffman @RaleighWx
Ok here you go. Again this forecast is sensitive and updates may have to be made tomorrow and the forecast could change rapidly tomorrow/tomorrow pm so stay tuned.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
For those of y'all that are westward (including me), the only key to really look for is if the waves can interact over eastern Arkansas and west Tennessee. If they do I think we're in. It sure won't be like what the NAM was depicting though, it'll be a light event.
packfan98
Moderator
Such huge jumps from the global models today!
