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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

metwannabe said:
Thought it was going east....umm no
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Do you have the 12z run at the same frame to compare it too by chance?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Several have said it can't / won't make it back to ATL! This begs to differ. Hmmm
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Most (if not all) of the precip showing up on the NAM composite reflectivity map over Alabama and western Georgia would be virga. 3-hour QPF only has a very small area of QPF in east Alabama at hour 21:

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Here we go with the back and forth. Euro and the globals come west, NAM finally goes east. Too funny.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Several have said it can't / won't make it back to ATL! This begs to differ. Hmmm
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A lot of that is not reaching the ground, but I think people misunderstand me. I'm just looking out for flurries, if there are few areas where the column is saturated then, yes it's not out the realm of possibility to see flurries, again, not saying we're getting a snowstorm here.
 
The SREF reflected exactly what the NAM ended up ultimately showing. The SREF increased totals for SC and parts of GA and decreased them for NC and that's exactly what the NAM did.
 
Looks like the SREF got this prediction right...about the NAM going the wrong way. This reminds me of the old Nam, what I've been afraid to see. We get close to game time, and it being the best model for us (snow-wise) starts moving away.
 
So we have a stronger lp just offshore but less expansive precip... Ok. 12z and 18z
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With the most recent model runs, I'm about to throw in the towel for the Greensboro area. I'll give it one more model suite before doing so. I don't think it's ever been in the cards for us, but I'll give it more set of model runs (0z) before giving up.
 
I feel that the models are confused about the precip throw. The NAM this run had a noticeable dry nose aloft over the Florida Panhandle, and it is a big difference from the previous runs.
 
Precip goes poof when it gets to the triad. Convection robbing moisture? No Bueno
 
The slp is jumping around in the Atlantic like a TC trying to develop a llc...

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Check your soundings & dew point for areas that precip goes "poof". It's dry! Here in Lexington, we barely get moist enough to end as some light snow.

Very dry dew points!
 
I wish Webber or 1300m would come in and tell us all it will be ok. :)
 
Ride the 3k NAM to glory folks or off the glorious cliff... but this precip shield at least matches up to th slp fwiw
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A lot of that blue stuff well inland, is evaporating. and that is why some charts look so different from others. Virga!

I'm just trying to let people know why the snowfall maps may not show much of anything for some
 
Shawn said:
A lot of that blue stuff well inland, is evaporating. and that is why some charts look so different from others. Virga!

I'm just trying to let people know why the snowfall maps may not show much of anything for some
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Thanks Shawn how about for Santee SC?
 
Shawn said:
A lot of that blue stuff well inland, is evaporating. and that is why some charts look so different from others. Virga!

I'm just trying to let people know why the snowfall maps may not show much of anything for some
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I was wondering what the deal was with the precip extending so far West on the Pivotal site.
 
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