• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Thought it was going east....umm no
6b8f68d2a082a966394e1ca5e9de5587.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Do you have the 12z run at the same frame to compare it too by chance?
 
Several have said it can't / won't make it back to ATL! This begs to differ. Hmmm

Most (if not all) of the precip showing up on the NAM composite reflectivity map over Alabama and western Georgia would be virga. 3-hour QPF only has a very small area of QPF in east Alabama at hour 21:

qpf_003h.us_se.png
 
Here we go with the back and forth. Euro and the globals come west, NAM finally goes east. Too funny.
 
Several have said it can't / won't make it back to ATL! This begs to differ. Hmmm

A lot of that is not reaching the ground, but I think people misunderstand me. I'm just looking out for flurries, if there are few areas where the column is saturated then, yes it's not out the realm of possibility to see flurries, again, not saying we're getting a snowstorm here.
 
The SREF reflected exactly what the NAM ended up ultimately showing. The SREF increased totals for SC and parts of GA and decreased them for NC and that's exactly what the NAM did.
 
Looks like the SREF got this prediction right...about the NAM going the wrong way. This reminds me of the old Nam, what I've been afraid to see. We get close to game time, and it being the best model for us (snow-wise) starts moving away.
 
So we have a stronger lp just offshore but less expansive precip... Ok. 12z and 18z
740f2842d2597faea6b90fdf2b9ebc88.jpg
ecaa5df56e80f9f138009fc360024492.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
With the most recent model runs, I'm about to throw in the towel for the Greensboro area. I'll give it one more model suite before doing so. I don't think it's ever been in the cards for us, but I'll give it more set of model runs (0z) before giving up.
 
I feel that the models are confused about the precip throw. The NAM this run had a noticeable dry nose aloft over the Florida Panhandle, and it is a big difference from the previous runs.
 
Precip goes poof when it gets to the triad. Convection robbing moisture? No Bueno
 
The slp is jumping around in the Atlantic like a TC trying to develop a llc...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Check your soundings & dew point for areas that precip goes "poof". It's dry! Here in Lexington, we barely get moist enough to end as some light snow.

Very dry dew points!
 
I wish Webber or 1300m would come in and tell us all it will be ok. :)
 
Ride the 3k NAM to glory folks or off the glorious cliff... but this precip shield at least matches up to th slp fwiw
2b8237708a760df696eda6a29c13bf88.jpg
04923364ad9598dd331c2f5718b09f67.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
A lot of that blue stuff well inland, is evaporating. and that is why some charts look so different from others. Virga!

I'm just trying to let people know why the snowfall maps may not show much of anything for some
 
A lot of that blue stuff well inland, is evaporating. and that is why some charts look so different from others. Virga!

I'm just trying to let people know why the snowfall maps may not show much of anything for some
Thanks Shawn how about for Santee SC?
 
A lot of that blue stuff well inland, is evaporating. and that is why some charts look so different from others. Virga!

I'm just trying to let people know why the snowfall maps may not show much of anything for some
I was wondering what the deal was with the precip extending so far West on the Pivotal site.
 
Back
Top