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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Per newest models, LP keeps moving closer to shore but precip is getting shunted east. Looks like it's going to be too cold and dry to snow in the Triad IMO. Sharp sharp cutoff the models are catching on to
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_6.png

With that LP pressure placement you would think RDU would get CRUSHED
 
Dry air/low dews apparent for Midlands of SC, still. But a good run for Eastern & Coastal areas.
 
IMO, the trends are looking better for SE GA and SC, but a little worse for NC. The thermal profiles are improving for places like Savannah, Hilton Head and low country SC. Savannah on tap for 2-4 inches. Would love to see the historic squares draped in snow. Can't wait to see the photos afterwards.
 
Shawn said:
Dry air/low dews apparent for Midlands of SC, still. But a good run for Eastern & Coastal areas.
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I think you are correct in the dry air in this region the coast looks good of Ga., SC, NC. we will see how far west the snow goes inland Wed.:)
 
After looking at the 18z model runs, I'm still not convinced that Greensboro area posters see very much (if anything). Like I and others have said earlier, we need something more than incremental shifts west at this point. At 24-30 hours away from go time, I just don't know much more this can shift west.

Unless 0z shows this major jump west, I will throw in the towel. I also believe we're close to the time to be "nowcasting" and looking at radar trends, etc. instead of following relying solely on the shorter range models.
 
The GFS and Euro will probably never catch up, at this point it's a wait and see what happens sort of thing.
 
Dry air is really gonna hurt a lot of inland locations. It appears the system is so convective that it's robbing so much moisture transport
 
NWS Mobile mentions the possibility of flurries area wide @accu35

Interesting
forecast in the near term. The global models are in very good
agreement on pivoting the strong mid level impulse/concentrated
height falls across the central Gulf coast late tonight causing
cloud cover to spread eastward over the local area and thicken. At
same time, forecasters note in the high resolution forecast
weather model thermal profiles that a considerably deep and moist
sub-freezing layer sets up from H85 to H50 millibars or an
altitude spanning 5 to 20 KFT aloft. However, surface to 5 KFT
layer is substantially more dry. Even so, the complete thermal
profile is frozen and with the strength of the upper support,
there appears to be enough to mention a chance of snow flurries
during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday AM area wide, ending by mid
morning Wednesday over the far southeast zones. With flurries
expected, no winter weather precipitation products issued on the
afternoon package. But with the arctic air and cold ground
conditions we`ve been dealing with, the approaching upper level
storm system and radar trends upstream will be monitored very
closely hour by hour which may result in some near term changes if
precipitation coverage becomes more expansive than currently
expected. Stay tuned.
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This is gonna come down to the wire. Keep an eye on the H5 map off of social page for comparison
 
1300m said:
My thoughts haven't changed. NAM at H5 looked very good at 18z. Meteorology will win the day here, and who knows maybe I'll be wrong and if I am I'll admit it and won't make any excuses and will do everything in my power to get to the bottom of how a negatively tilted trough of this magnitude doesn't pound RDU to I-95.
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I keep thinking the same thing. But we keep seeing the weak qpf reflections inland. Take a look at the new RGEM's SLP position. The qpf may be correct, but I don't think I have seen a low in that position with only .1" precip in the Triangle. I guess this time could be different, though.
 
1300m said:
My thoughts haven't changed. NAM at H5 looked very good at 18z. Meteorology will win the day here, and who knows maybe I'll be wrong and if I am I'll admit it and won't make any excuses and will do everything in my power to get to the bottom of how a negatively tilted trough of this magnitude doesn't pound RDU to I-95.
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Great point! It will be a head scratcher for sure if this powerful a low on that track doesn't pound US1. If it doesn't you look at it and learn by it but I think at go time the actual "weather" takes control
 
People keep bringing up dry air over and over again. NYE night, dew points were in the single digits to near 0. We still managed to squeeze out flurries in parts of the state with hardly any radar feedback showing up. I feel like we are beating a dead horse with bringing that up over and over again.
 
1300m said:
My thoughts haven't changed. NAM at H5 looked very good at 18z. Meteorology will win the day here, and who knows maybe I'll be wrong and if I am I'll admit it and won't make any excuses and will do everything in my power to get to the bottom of how a negatively tilted trough of this magnitude doesn't pound RDU to I-95.
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deltadog03 said:
Dry air is really gonna hurt a lot of inland locations. It appears the system is so convective that it's robbing so much moisture transport
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Rain Cold said:
I keep thinking the same thing. But we keep seeing the weak qpf reflections inland. Take a look at the new RGEM's SLP position. The qpf may be correct, but I don't think I have seen a low in that position with only .1" precip in the Triangle. I guess this time could be different, though.
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Could it be what delta said about the moisture being robbed? Everything looks great with the models and placement and intensity of the low. That is usually a classic look for a good snow here. The globals keep looking better, too.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Could it be what delta said about the moisture being robbed? Everything looks great with the models and placement and intensity of the low. That is usually a classic look for a good snow here. The globals keep looking better, too.
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Yeah, I guess. That keeps getting thrown out there. But in my experience, at least with Gulf systems, the models usually show plenty of qpf and we end up getting shafted at the last minute, when none of them showed a minimum of precip due to convection robbing. In this case, nobody but the 3k NAM is showing appreciable precip making it back to the Triangle. Either the models do a great job picking up convection robbing in the Atlantic or there's something else going on.
 
I guess we can just keep downplaying it until the cows come home. I see that’s everyone in Columbia’s approach to this thing is.
 
Robert West said:
I guess we can just keep downplaying it until the cows come home. I see that’s everyone in Columbia’s approach to this thing is.
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NWS KCAE even has 20% chance of snow in the forecast for Lexington. It's not like, totally ignored. It's just a low chance.
 
RollTide18 said:
NWS Mobile mentions the possibility of flurries area wide @accu35
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BMX has too. Maybe we'll luck out and see a few flakes!:

"The shortwave will be moisture-starved at low levels, until it
encounters Atlantic moisture over the Florida Big Bend region and
south-central/southeast Georgia, near developing low pressure off
the Southeast Atlantic coast. There will be some virga across
Central Alabama tonight into tomorrow morning in association with
the shortwave. Already seeing some faint radar returns above
12-15k ft, with returns showing up a bit lower than this over
Arkansas. With some lift and decent moisture in the DGZ, it`s
conceivable that a few stray flurries could survive the fall
through the very dry air below 700 mb. Added in a slight chance
of flurries across the area between midnight and 9 AM but
certainly not expecting any accumulations or impacts."
 
South AL Wx said:
BMX has too. Maybe we'll luck out and see a few flakes!:

"The shortwave will be moisture-starved at low levels, until it
encounters Atlantic moisture over the Florida Big Bend region and
south-central/southeast Georgia, near developing low pressure off
the Southeast Atlantic coast. There will be some virga across
Central Alabama tonight into tomorrow morning in association with
the shortwave. Already seeing some faint radar returns above
12-15k ft, with returns showing up a bit lower than this over
Arkansas. With some lift and decent moisture in the DGZ, it`s
conceivable that a few stray flurries could survive the fall
through the very dry air below 700 mb. Added in a slight chance
of flurries across the area between midnight and 9 AM but
certainly not expecting any accumulations or impacts."
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Wow, that's an awesome development, just the possibility of seeing flakes twice in 30 days in the south is exciting.
 
So hard to figure out how much will fall, the models are saying up to potentially 9" on one of the NAM models, and local forecasters say 1" in Florence

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
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carolinachaos said:
So hard to figure out how much will fall the models are saying up to potentially 9" on one of the NAM models and local forecasters say 1" in Florence

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
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Easier to have 1 inch in the forecast and tick it up with radar's look. Saying 9 inches then only getting 1 or nothing, looks horrible.
 
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