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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Webberweather53 said:
Lol the spurious vort lobe east of FL is gone on this GFS run and isn't a surprise given the convective feedback issues I alluded to earlier
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To me, it appears that the heights are starting to rise in the West Atlantic as well vs previous runs...maybe not though
 
93Storm said:
I know that's a positive tilt trough, but what do you call that type of orientation? Shouldn't the wave be more in a upright "U" shape for a storm system to form?
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A storm can form if the wave is positively, neutrally, or negatively tilted, the negatively tilted trough is inherently unstable and draws energy from the jet stream at its expense and favors a low developing more quickly
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well, hopefully the CMC isn't a no go due to similar reasons with the NAM.
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Yep. A vorticity spoke churned around the Hudson Bay vortex and caused a slight deviation in the trailer dive...but missed it but altered it enough to cause a problem

On a lighter note, if the UKMET still can hold onto its 12z solution...breathe a sigh of relief. If UKMET gets worse...well...
 
I don’t like how the 00z runs have looked. Here’s to hoping the Doc looks better.


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Stormsfury said:
Yep. A vorticity spoke churned around the Hudson Bay vortex and caused a slight deviation in the trailer dive...but missed it but altered it enough to cause a problem

On a lighter note, if the UKMET still can hold onto its 12z solution...breathe a sigh of relief. If UKMET gets worse...well...
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Alright, good. Maybe the NAM is just being the NAM outside of it's range.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Convective feedback issues really start hurting the GFS beyond 72 hours, creates a fictitious vortex NE of our main low center off the SE coast. Smh this model is a piece of crap when there's a lot of diabatic heating involved
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How can it ever be trusted for tropical development if that is the case? ;/
 
Webberweather53 said:
A storm can form if the wave is positively, neutrally, or negatively tilted, the negatively tilted trough is inherently unstable and draws energy from the jet stream at its expense and favors a low developing more quickly
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How come a low dosen't develop sooner? Is it because of that monstrous 1050-1040mb high pressure? Because the trough is positively tilted before the wave is over the southwestern Atlantic.
 
UKMET East. Darn. On to the next.

UKMET is phase happy. Very bad signs it does not phase quickly for 00z.
 
Shawn said:
How can it ever be trusted for tropical development if that is the case? ;/
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It's sorta okay with TCs that develop off of pre-existing frontal boundaries or from cold-core upper level lows because the convection associated w/ them is often more modest and they're inherently lacking a deeper warm core, but aside from that it's assumed to be utter garbage even inside day 3-4 whenever there's a chance for development in the monsoon trough or CA monsoon gyre.
 
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