Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Shawn]

I guess we have to a more moisture producing storm and hope we have enough cold air to produce later. But honestly, kicking this can is getting tiresome. Hopefully, what Eric alluded to can do the trick if this threat fails. We'll live you guys. Just try to start off fresh for the new year and let's learn from this.

Earlier, the Euro had precip here (almost an inch) and the highs were in the mid 60s.

 

[Michael21]

So, after just being very optimistic, now all of the sudden people are giving up? What's with the wild swings? It will be hilarious if the Euro is as good or better than its 12Z run or if the 6Z/12Z runs are better.

With the chaser slowing down.It's safe to say that this storm going to be too far east for anyone.The fact that the Ukmet was well to the east along with every other model run so far suggest that this "mid week " is not going to happen.

 

[deltadog03]

Well good news or bad news the doc will be on the stage soon

 

[Clayton Reid]

Earlier, the Euro had precip here (almost an inch) and the highs were in the mid 60s.

Yeah, the warmth ruining our chances with the California shortwave is what I was afraid of. But I guess the cold can come back strong but who knows? May be over till next winter. Maybe we'll get another chance but not in the foreseeable future.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Based on what I've been reading I think we're just going to have a cold pattern reload itself after a warm period. I do think we have the flip to a La Nina like pattern happen but when at this point? February?

 

[Metwannabe]

I didn't see it posted but here was the ukmet.... yuck

 

[Storm5]

Big east shift on the gefs


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[Metwannabe]

Big decrease on the GEFS and looks like only one or two members with precip inland at all...

 

[Mitch West]

Well, we tried

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The 18z GEFS was a warning shot and we dismissed it

 

[crecre9]

Right

That's not even remotely similar to ground truth.

 

[deltadog03]

Well the Doc is on the stage and is about to sing....lets see what happens

 

[deltadog03]

euro is about the same so far as 12z run thru 18hr

 

[deltadog03]

slightly west and maybe a smidge slower but really about the same with the lead wave....chaser should come in to view soon

 

[deltadog03]

HR48 the chaser wave is actually stronger and faster (ie closer) to the lead wave vs the 12z run so far

 

[deltadog03]

HR 60 our chaser wave is a bit further south (ie quicker) about to enter the US and the our wave is starting to turn over a bit

 

[deltadog03]

hr78 our lead wave is further SW than 12z run, chaser is starting to phase. prob still too late though

 

[Shawn]

Low pops way East.

 

[Mitch West]

Goodnight

 

[Snowflowxxl]