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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

GaWx said:
EPS qpf SAV
0Z : 0.25"
12Z; 0.50"

GEFS qpf SAV:
0Z: 0.25'
6Z: 0.30"
12Z: 0.55"
18Z: 0.65"

GEPS:
0Z: 0.45"
12Z: 0.50"

Has the slow but steady NW qpf trend ceased? If not, the 0.75" qpf line is right on our doorstep!
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Hope it's all snow or sleet. But it looks like zr is coming. Hope you have some supplies, and a chainsaw. 3/4's is pretty historic, right? I don't like anything over a quarter inch, and you've got sea breezes that will not be fun. T
 
dsaur said:
What are your temps, Phil...on your home unit? T
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Tony,
Only for you would I get up and walk across the whole house to find numbers ... LOL
37.3º
Bit chilly, but real damp.
Get your sleet, and buckets of it, my friend!
Best!
Phil
 
metwannabe said:
This probably belongs in banter but just for fun the new Canadian HRDPS that was just added the other day on TT (it only covers the northern areas you see so please don't ask about other areas) but fun to look at and a good test run for it in our area.
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Somewhat refreshing to see, I was a little down after the 18z RGEM took a step back. Think a general 4-8" for the Coastal Plain, along a line from about Clinton to Elizabeth City. 2-4" back to 95, similar at the immediate coast, lollipops somewhere in NE NC, maybe Ahoskie, Wake county the cutofff back west. I still can't figure given a bombing low why the lack of Atlantic fetch, the 700mb convergence graphic posted previously was helpful but that may only be one piece. Many of us have seen ATL convection screw up the fetch inland, usually a line of convection along the Gulf stream on the west side of the SLP. Could be the case here, maybe the physics packages of the globals are better at figuring it out. Bombing SLPs like this cream the 95 corridor well inland, why is it so damn hard for us to get a deform band setup SW-NE initially that than pivots more N-S before exiting stage right in this setup. I know it is a quicker than usual exit stage right but where bombing starts plays out almost perfectly for ENC. Maybe I am in left field, can't remember a sub 970mb low giving a a SN dominant event and tucking about 125 miles east of HAT. QPF just seems off on a lot of the guidance I have looked at today.
 
dsaur said:
Hope it's all snow or sleet. But it looks like zr is coming. Hope you have some supplies, and a chainsaw. 3/4's is pretty historic, right? I don't like anything of a quarter inch, and you've got sea breezes that will not be fun. T
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Gosh I hope mainly snow and sleet. 3/4" of ZR would easily be the worst here since 1/1922! Although the NAM and other models have suggested majority ZR, I'm hoping like heck they're wrong. There's no wedge. Something seems wonky about that. As long as 850's stay colder than +3, I think the vast majority of the non-snow will be sleet and not ZR based on past SE winter storms. If I start seeing 850s more like +3 to +6, that's when I'll really start to worry about a damaging icestorm. Regardless, at least the last portion of the storm should be mainly snow...fingers crossed!

Currently already down to 30.9 already. My high was only about 37 today and yesterday only about 38. This morning's low was 21, the coldest in a long time. Tonight's forecasted low is ~25. So, the ground temperatures are primed for everything to stick like icing, a rarity here although like 12/1989. I'm expecting precip to start late tonight. These kinds of storms tend to start a few hours early and some models have light stuff starting before dawn.

Edit: I honestly think the models are having trouble with their sleet vs ZR algorithms. They have so little sleet, which is where I'm thinking they're wrong.
 
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pcbjr said:
Tony,
Only for you would I get up and walk across the whole house to find numbers ... LOL
39.3º
Bit chilly, but real damp.
Get your sleet, and buckets of it, my friend!
Best!
Phil
Click to expand...
I'm at 28 even, and last night got to 12.4, 12.2, and 14.3 on my remotes. Safe to say it would snow here if I got what's going on with you and Fla/Ga line. Hope cooling gets you into some sleet yourself. As for buckets of sleet, I'll need a tight storm to barrel right over me while it's in the mid 20's, lol. with just the right warm nose to turn it to sleet. I'm still waiting as it's been a lot time since I saw a good one.
And thanks for the walking..it's good for you. I've been walking late at night while the wind is still, and it's amazing out there. We all need to go out and experience this cold...we get tons of 90's, but this stuff is rare. T
 
GaWx said:
Gosh I hope mainly snow and sleet. 3/4" of ZR would easily be the worst here since 1/1922! Although the NAM and other models have suggested majority ZR, I'm hoping like heck they're wrong. There's no wedge. Something seems wonky about that. As long as 850's stay colder than +3, I think the vast majority of the non-snow will be sleet and not ZR based on past SE winter storms. If I start seeing 850s more like +3 to +6, that's when I'll really start to worry about a damaging icestorm. Regardless, at least the last portion of the storm should be mainly snow...fingers crossed!

Currently already down to 30.9 already. My high was only about 37 today and yesterday only about 38. This morning's low was 21, the coldest in a long time. Tonight's forecasted low is ~25. So, the ground temperatures are primed for everything to stick like icing, a rarity here though like 12/1989. I'm expecting precip to start late tonight. These kinds of storms tend to start a few hours early and some models have light stuff starting before dawn.
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I'm pulling for you Larry, but I don't like that the ground has been cold if you get zr, on the other hand 3/4's of qpf in snow would be historic too, lol, and we want you to experience the good kind of historic :)
 
WeatherNC said:
Somewhat refreshing to see, I was a little down after the 18z RGEM took a step back. Think a general 4-8" for the Coastal Plain, along a line from about Clinton to Elizabeth City. 2-4" back to 95, similar at the immediate coast, lollipops somewhere in NE NC, maybe Ahoskie, Wake county the cutofff back west. I still can't figure given a bombing low why the lack of Atlantic fetch, the 700mb convergence graphic posted previously was helpful but that may only be one piece. Many of us have seen ATL convection screw up the fetch inland, usually a line of convection along the Gulf stream on the west side of the SLP. Could be the case here, maybe the physics packages of the globals are better at figuring it out. Bombing SLPs like this cream the 95 corridor well inland, why is it so damn hard for us to get a deform band setup SW-NE initially that than pivots more N-S before exiting stage right in this setup. I know it is a quicker than usual exit stage right but where bombing starts plays out almost perfectly for ENC. Maybe I am in left field, can't remember a sub 970mb low giving a a SN dominant event and tucking about 125 miles east of HAT. QPF just seems off on a lot of the guidance I have looked at today.
Click to expand...
Hoping it is off on the globals and the NAM is right.
 
dsaur said:
I'm at 28 even, and last night got to 12.4, 12.2, and 14.3 on my remotes. Safe to say it would snow here if I got what's going on with you and Fla/Ga line. Hope cooling gets you into some sleet yourself. As for buckets of sleet, I'll need a tight storm to barrel right over me while it's in the mid 20's, lol. with just the right warm nose to turn it to sleet. I'm still waiting as it's been a lot time since I saw a good one.
And thanks for the walking..it's good for you. I've been walking late at night while the wind is still, and it's amazing out there. We all need to go out and experience this cold...we get tons of 90's, but this stuff is rare. T
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Tony - I'll probably get warning points for this, but for you, it's worth it.
I do a 5 mile every morning before the sun comes up, rain, shine or sleet (notice that down here, snow is not in the walking equation... LOL ... :confused:). This AM was a bear. Hard N wind (22 mph gusts), 31º, and drizzle; exhilarating ... :p
take care, my friend!
Best!
Phil
 
WeatherNC said:
Somewhat refreshing to see, I was a little down after the 18z RGEM took a step back. Think a general 4-8" for the Coastal Plain, along a line from about Clinton to Elizabeth City. 2-4" back to 95, similar at the immediate coast, lollipops somewhere in NE NC, maybe Ahoskie, Wake county the cutofff back west. I still can't figure given a bombing low why the lack of Atlantic fetch, the 700mb convergence graphic posted previously was helpful but that may only be one piece. Many of us have seen ATL convection screw up the fetch inland, usually a line of convection along the Gulf stream on the west side of the SLP. Could be the case here, maybe the physics packages of the globals are better at figuring it out. Bombing SLPs like this cream the 95 corridor well inland, why is it so damn hard for us to get a deform band setup SW-NE initially that than pivots more N-S before exiting stage right in this setup. I know it is a quicker than usual exit stage right but where bombing starts plays out almost perfectly for ENC. Maybe I am in left field, can't remember a sub 970mb low giving a a SN dominant event and tucking about 125 miles east of HAT. QPF just seems off on a lot of the guidance I have looked at today.
Click to expand...
Thanks for your input, I think you are in a great spot actually, heck one time earlier today I was concerned about the continuing NW trend which would certainly have given you mixing issues but that seems to have halted for now... my job has me in Greenville these days and I have to go no matter what so hopefully you can jackpot and I can share in it
 
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_37.png

The only thing I can figure is the extreme convection on the NW quadrant of the storm is ruining moisture transport.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_37.png

The only thing I can figure is the extreme convection on the NW quadrant of the storm is ruining moisture transport.
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The only thing I can figure is that has a band of snow right over me (the northern most of the two); it's got to be a big error ... :eek:
 
pcbjr said:
Tony - I'll probably get warning points for this, but for you, it's worth it.
I do a 5 mile every morning before the sun comes up, rain, shine or sleet (notice that down here, snow is not in the walking equation... LOL ... :confused:). This AM was a bear. Hard N wind (22 mph gusts), 31º, and drizzle; exhilarating ... :p
take care, my friend!
Best!
Phil
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You are the Man!, Phil :) This is kind of historic all the way around, and often we don't stop to enjoy what we are getting, even if it's just cold and no wind, lol. My lows tonight are forecast in the low 20's, but I'm betting I break that, and if the HRR wants to send some out runners over, I'll be out looking for them. You may get a wound up tight storm, but usually some clouds go by out a good ways, with moisture in them...is it enough to break thru the virga barrier..that's the question. But I always expect some stray virga flurries, if nothing else.
 
For Phil from JAX!!:

FLZ036-030915-
ALACHUA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GAINESVILLE, GAINESVILLE AIRPORT,
AND NEWNANS LAKE
621 PM EST TUE JAN 2 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS 22 TO 27.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN AND CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ICE
ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 22 TO 27.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 14 TO 19.
 
Sorry, Phil, but at least you can live with a quarter inch of zr. I wonder, if that occurs, when the last time you saw a quarter inch of zr down there?
 
GaWx said:
For Phil from JAX!!:

FLZ036-030915-
ALACHUA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GAINESVILLE, GAINESVILLE AIRPORT,
AND NEWNANS LAKE
621 PM EST TUE JAN 2 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS 22 TO 27.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN AND CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ICE
ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 22 TO 27.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 14 TO 19.
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Larry,
Thanks!
Now, can I trade that for white fluff ... :eek:
Oh, I know, beggars can't be ... ;)
Best, My Man!
Phil
PS - And thanks for thinking of us down here!
 
Would be awesome if a shield of precip developed off the coast of the panhandle of FL and rode into GA straight into the Midlands like the 2000 storm. At this point, I'm hoping for a miracle here in Columbia. I guess there aint nothing wrong with that.
 
pcbjr said:
Never.
:confused:
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Well, technically, it's a half inch, but the rain in between should wash off the first round. Hope your budding tree is ready, lol. And cover any favorite plants. Zr will burn them, although they spray zr on fruit trees to save them, so who knows, lol. T
 
"At this point, I'm hoping for a miracle here in Columbia". Its all we've got. Wondering if radar returns will look ominous by early AM
 
Robert West said:
Would be awesome if a shield of precip developed off the coast of the panhandle of FL and rode into GA straight into the Midlands like the 2000 storm. At this point, I'm hoping for a miracle here in Columbia. I guess there aint nothing wrong with that.
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it's just not our storm this time my friend
 
metwannabe said:
Thanks for your input, I think you are in a great spot actually, heck one time earlier today I was concerned about the continuing NW trend which would certainly have given you mixing issues but that seems to have halted for now... my job has me in Greenville these days and I have to go no matter what so hopefully you can jackpot and I can share in it
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I have a 4x4 truck these days, no longer rocking the Accord on snow chases and have limited excuses for not making it to work absent high water. Climo would paint the heaviest axis from Edgecombe / Wilson counties off towards the north-east, whereas the global are more along a Washington to Plymouth line. The difference could just be that slight NW correction we see inside 24hrs and with verification. In my ~15 years here in ENC, I have never seen a low like this going to some of the min SLPs guidance is spitting out and keeping us dominant SN. Convection is either going to rob, or even some of these semi-official higher outputs are going to come in low.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Each run the HRRR develops those flurries more and more and keeps it around longer each time. I think Birmingham should see a few flakes based off of that if the precip develops.
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Interesting no model sniffing out the current precip breaking out back over Louisiana, Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma that I can find anyway. But beginning to get some ground truth though through mPing now and over last hour. Hi res show some snow showers across central Alabama tomorrow but again nothing currently

Interesting need to watch and see if we can bump up dew points just a tick then parts of AL andcYa could get a little surprise here... Not a trend just an observation ATM

47_BFEC57-90_EA-4_BCC-9983-0_CED0_EEE7_A7_E.png
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Cool Graphic on Wright-Weather on the simulated radar for the next 54 hours based on the 18z 3km NAM.
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In that graphic, you can see the pivot between about 36 and 40hrs, that would jackpot RWI to ORF verbatim. PGV would be looking just to the NNW as we normally do.
 
Xtreme Weather said:
Interesting no model sniffing out the current precip breaking out back over Louisiana, Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma that I can find anyway. But beginning to get some ground truth though through mPing now and over last hour. Hi res show some snow showers across central Alabama tomorrow but again nothing currently

Interesting need to watch and see if we can bump up dew points just a tick then parts of AL andcYa could get a little surprise here... Not a trend just an observation ATM

47_BFEC57-90_EA-4_BCC-9983-0_CED0_EEE7_A7_E.png
Click to expand...
Will it fall apart when it reaches Atlanta?
 
WeatherNC said:
I have a 4x4 truck these days, no longer rocking the Accord on snow chases and have limited excuses for not making it to work absent high water. Climo would paint the heaviest axis from Edgecombe / Wilson counties off towards the north-east, whereas the global are more along a Washington to Plymouth line. The difference could just be that slight NW correction we see inside 24hrs and with verification. In my ~15 years here in ENC, I have never seen a low like this going to some of the min SLPs guidance is spitting out and keeping us dominant SN. Convection is either going to rob, or even some of these semi-official higher outputs are going to come in low.
Click to expand...

This already started today with every model run at least as far as slp placement is concerned... this is a dynamic situation and going to be interesting to how it all verifies. Will the low be that close to the coast, will precip shield be more expansive, is convection robbing the moisture or are models not handling the convection properly (looks more like a freaking TC on the hi-res models). Who knows, I do know I like the look of the pivot on the graphic lovinggulflows shared, that's the glory hour right there
 
30.0 here with a wetbulb of only 24! After looking at some more data, including 850 dewpoints that are currently -39C per the 18Z GFS and whose wetbulbs never rise above -2C, I really wouldn't be shocked if practically all of our precip falls as snow. Related to this and considering NE to N winds cold advection with with zero Atlantic modifying influence, I think temperatures are going to be significantly colder late tonight and tomorrow than what KCHS is forecasting. They're going with a low tonight of high 20s and a high tomorrow of low 30s. I think we're liable to see mid 20's later tonight and a struggle to even get out of the 20's tomorrow.
 
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