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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

OMG, I'm hoping that the recently revered German model (ICON), though it appears to overdo precip., is onto something. Even if I cut in half the qpf of the 6Z ICON, it is still giving the NE FL (likely including even Phil to a decent extent!), GA, and lower SC coasts a major winter storm!! The track of the surface low couldn't be much better for this type of thing. The low forms near Grand Bahama and then moves N from there and strengthens to 997 300 miles E of Brunswick. And that, folks, is how you can get an historic SE coastal snowstorm.

*edited for correction about low track as it didn't form in the Gulf as I first thought
 
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NAM is not bad btw. I just looked over it and literally the Low is (with a higher resolution model) about to get yanked due Northeast with the Northern energy if it were to go out further. In fact, the low pressure is even closer to FL. Places like gawx, stormsfury would see snow from it.
 
^^ to go with the above, bands rotate counter clockwise on low pressure. they would spin right back into the coast at least until CHS/SAV even if it was trying to pull away.
 
GFS was not horrible either. I mean this still has a chance to come West in the 36 hours or so out guys. Just let it play out. Phases always involve timing, along with a lot of other factors.
 
Here is the 06z nam quikcly edited by me. of course it's off, im tired but the idea is almost correct in the circled area Notice the axis (the 540 line) is further West, again this run. furthest ive seen it so far.


hello.png
 
I just noticed that all four of the most recent German model runs had similar solutions/major or near major SE coast winter storm. I just saw the other 3 for the first time. And that is AFTER I cut the qpf in half.
 
GaWx said:
OMG, I'm hoping that the recently revered German model (ICON), though it appears to overdo precip., is onto something. Even if I cut in half the qpf of the 6Z ICON, it is still giving the NE FL (likely including even Phil to a decent extent!), GA, and lower SC coasts a major winter storm!! The track of the surface low couldn't be much better for this type of thing. The low forms near Grand Bahama and then moves N from there and strengthens to 997 300 miles E of Brunswick. And that, folks, is how you can get an historic SE coastal snowstorm.

*edited for correction about low track as it didn't form in the Gulf as I first thought
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I hope you get some snow buddy.
 
Shawn said:
GFS was not horrible either. I mean this still has a chance to come West in the 36 hours or so out guys. Just let it play out. Phases always involve timing, along with a lot of other factors.
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Didn't December 2010 blizzard do the same, it didn't come back till The last minute
 
GaWx said:
I just noticed that all four of the most recent German model runs had similar solutions/major or near major SE coast winter storm. I just saw the other 3 for the first time. And that is AFTER I cut the qpf in half.
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Good luck Larry, you deserve it, along with Storm and Chris. You guys put in a lot of your time and effort around here, which is much appreciated. Sadly, i think our chances here in the Midlands are dwindling. Never say never though with Winter WX situations like these in our area. We know how things can change on a dime, esp. with the situation being as futile as showing now. We have the pieces in play on the board, just have to time them right.
 
Looking at the last several Euro, GFS, and CMC runs as well as their respective ensemble means and comparing them to the last 4 runs of the ICON, the reason why the ICON gives parts of the SE coast a major snow is this:

ALL of the models have a sfc low near Grand Bahama Island. But the ICON is the only model that each time moves that low between N and NNE from there. All of the other models move it NE and thus giving less impact on the SE coast.

So, the big question in my mind is whether or not the ICON could have the right idea with that N or NNE movement of the Grand Bahama sfc low instead of NE movement keeping in mind that it has been doing that for at least 4 runs in a row. IF the ICON were to score a big win, it will quickly become my favorite model. ;) Any opinions?

Edit: fwiw, the 6Z JMA trended closer to the coast vs the 0Z JMA.
 
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GaWx said:
Looking at the last several Euro, GFS, and CMC runs as well as their respective ensemble means and comparing them to the last 4 runs of the ICON, the reason why the ICON gives parts of the SE coast a major snow is this:

ALL of the models have a sfc low near Grand Bahama Island. But the ICON is the only model that each time moves that low between N and NNE from there. All of the other models move it NE and thus giving less impact on the SE coast.

So, the big question in my mind is whether or not the ICON could have the right idea with that N or NNE movement of the Grand Bahama sfc low instead of NE movement keeping in mind that it has been doing that for at least 4 runs in a row. IF the ICON were to score a big win, it will quickly become my favorite model. ;) Any opinions?

Edit: fwiw, the 6Z JMA trended closer to the coast vs the 0Z JMA.
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You can add the NAVGEM. 06z took the SFC straight N then NNE and gets quite close to E NC.

The 06z GFS had something different I didn't see previously. Behind the trailer wave is yet another increase in vorticity just behind that at 78/84 hr and just adds fuel to the fire.
 
I’ve never wanted a SE coast hit more than I do now . When I first discovered weather boards years and years ago I discovered one thing . Larry never sleeps . He was always around to give the euro play by play late into the early morning hours. Over the years he’s spent hours upon hours giving euro updates on storms that only have a wintry component far to his north or NW. So I’m 100 percent pulling for a larry hit . No ass kissing here just the truth . If anyone deserves a winter storm it’s him .

Add tony and Phil to list as well


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Storm5 said:
I’ve never wanted a SE coast hit more than I do now . When I first discovered weather boards years and years ago I discovered one thing . Larry never sleeps . He was always around to give the euro play by play late into the early morning hours. Over the years he’s spent hours upon hours giving euro updates on storms that only have a wintry component far to his north or NW. So I’m 100 percent pulling for a larry hit . No ass kissing here just the truth . If anyone deserves a winter storm it’s him .

Add tony and Phil to list as well


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Agreed
 
Through 57 12z nam looks better to me with the chaser wave. Looks to be better positioned to phase also southern vort trying to go neutral if reading it right...
c74fc76b74ab3a01ba24d29a18aac064.gif


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Fwiw the NAM is definitely an improvement, trying to phase again probably too late but gives Larry and coastal sections some wintry weather
namconus_z500_vort_us_50.png
 
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