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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Already 21 here, but our NWS actually had a low in the teens (18). Wonder if we even beat that as it's so early. The heat pump was on from 6 last night to early in the afternoon, going to be another round of that.

Seriously, if the NAM is actually correct, from past history that's going to be a major issue because of this major cold snap that is 2014 esque. IF anything falls, it's going to stick and by stick, it will melt and freeze on the roads.
 
E NC looks drier this run

Edit: starts cranking at 28
Yep starting to increase
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Yea I’m excited for tomorrow. We are gonna learn a lot one way or the other from this storm. Learned a lot already about H5, and other things. Been a blast and it’s not even affecting me lol!
 
Larry,
About time that you and I set models down and start watching WV and radar.
Good luck, Bud!
Best,
Phil
 
If this slp verifies right there and RDU doesn't get anymore precip than this..... then I just don't know
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Hopefully the amount of precip is too low. But it seems our weather now doesn't always correlate with similar setups of the past.
 
Look at the qpf and that is a tight gradient, some places in ENC approaching 1.5 all frozen.... no way
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I keep thinking about what SD said before about the highest preip totals almost always ending up a little NW of what the models show.
 
Consistent look on the NAM for areas up towards the Triangle of NC and Eastward. But that weird cut off in totals in NE SC and SE NC is odd. The way the moisture just isn't there... I have a feeling the 06z will look different for a lot of areas.
 
Hoping all this virga everyone is talking about actually is snow making it to the ground
 
Maybe the reason this system isn't throwing more moisture back inland is somewhat related to it being a smaller storm? Kind of like some hurricanes are large in size and some are somewhat compact. Maybe this system is potent but a bit on the smaller side. Obviously the dry air is a factor as well.
TW
 
Someone's I just don't know lol

You'd think it would be snowing buckets under these tops too
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It gets .6 back to you I'm sure you'd take that.... no room for error though. Although I still think if this slp verifies in that location it will be more expansive than that imo
 
It gets .6 back to you I'm sure you'd take that.... no room for error though. Although I still think if this slp verifies in that location it will be more expansive than that imo
No doubt... The slight east bump is scary but still good here. I would love to be up your way

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