Better the further South and East you go. Hell, even Charleston goes over to heavy snow!
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Better the further South and East you go. Hell, even Charleston goes over to heavy snow!
Sandbar
Member
3K NAM looks good for RDU!
You got the frame that shows it right over SC? Sorry for bugging you budRide the 3k NAM to glory folks or off the glorious cliff... but this precip shield at least matches up to th slp fwiw
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LovingGulfLows
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NAM seems like it's tightening the comma head as the SLP deepens...probably why there's less snow for RDU. Jackpot will still be I-95. Always has been.
Still snowing at this point in parts of Central and Northeastern North Carolina as well as Southeastern Va
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Avalanche
Member
My fear for the Triangle area is that there isn't any front end snow, and that the only precip we get is backside as it moves ENE away from the coast.
I think the accumulation map I posted covers that
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CentralGAColdFront
Member
I'm under a Winter Weather Advisory for up to two inches, but I'm concerned that some maps don't depict the precipitation making it this far west.
Avalanche
Member
Looking forward to radar watching/nowcasting time. You have to have a certain kind of sinister heart to model watch. I haven't developed that yet. Its coming though
Claycochaser
Member
Lol. That's right over ARCC's houseMost (if not all) of the precip showing up on the NAM composite reflectivity map over Alabama and western Georgia would be virga. 3-hour QPF only has a very small area of QPF in east Alabama at hour 21:
Cary_Snow95
Member
The 3km was actually better than the 6z or 12z runs for RDU
Sandbar
Member
Exactly! I will take that and run at this point
ForsythSnow
Moderator
FFC is going all in for coverage. Even beyond the models.
3k wasn't as good for the Midlands.. there is still so much inconsistency on where the Western edge of the precip will set up
Still snowing at this point in parts of Central and Northeastern North Carolina as well as Southeastern Va
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A foot in Marion County, SC and nearly 10 inches in Florence County, per this run.
Ask those NC guys. Literally, it will be snowing hard 10 minutes away and basically nothing over them. Same will likely happen in this scenario with a very sharp cutoff and dry air.
LovingGulfLows
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FFC is going all in for coverage. Even beyond the models.
If this is correct, I'm going to be like 20-25 miles away from seeing some snow. That's about the same distance I was from seeing heavy snow in the early December storm lol.
It happens..... February 2004. Pouring snow in Winnsboro and Newberry, while I had could barely see a few flakes.
My Area 5 miles North of Santee SC.. looks to in a good area for heavy snow
So Southern/Eastern Midlands look to do good.
So Southern/Eastern Midlands look to do good.
lj0109
Member
I wouldn't throw the whole Midlands of SC into that opinion. Sumter/Calhoun/Clarendon and most of Orangeburg Co. would do quite well if taken verbatim...
That storm hurt me more than yall know. To this day, ive still never seen such a sharp cut off from heavy snow to heavy rain and sleet. lol
Columbia is what I meant.
My Area 5 miles North of Santee SC.. looks to in a good area for heavy snow
Correct. The Pee Dee (likely, the best spot to be in SC for this storm), Grand Strand, and Lowcountry also look to do well.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That looks great for central NC. Didn't expect that. Looks like the totals actually increased.Still snowing at this point in parts of Central and Northeastern North Carolina as well as Southeastern Va
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Can't post a pic right now but just glancing at the SPC analysis page looks to me like our lead shortwave is still a little Southwest of most model guidance
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TBD as far how far enough that precip. field makes it West. I do agree it will be a very tight gradient though. Any subtle changes could make quite a difference for some. Hope it can continue the West shift though.
I think the cutoff will be somewhere around KCAE proper, as Eric also thinks. That might even be too generous with the colder/dry air in place. If you are from Sumter, Orangeburg, Southeast from there, you'll do much better.
And even as far west as KCAE at all, is based on the NAM.
And even as far west as KCAE at all, is based on the NAM.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Based on that, it appears a hair at most SW. Something looks flatter in the South though compared to the initialized NAM. Any thoughts as to what this could mean? I think that could result in a later tilt, or in other words, it's going east.Here's the map.
Initialized NAM.
It's on tropical tidbits bro.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Most (if not all) of the precip showing up on the NAM composite reflectivity map over Alabama and western Georgia would be virga. 3-hour QPF only has a very small area of QPF in east Alabama at hour 21:
Haha win!
Avalanche
Member
Urgh, what a day on the models. Tomorrow is a new day w/new opportunities.....I hope. The NW trend has come to a halt. Maybe I'm wrong but it looks like the eastern trough is pushing this E.
Cary_Snow95
Member
So the LP gets closer and closer and the precip goes down. I don't understand
RGEM still had the low in a great position for Central North Carolina but lighter amounts, really starting to think this wound up low is cutting down on the moisture transport west of the center.
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NCSNOW
Member
The trough is actually a little sharper in reality alng SE and the trailing wave is futher SW. Lead wave is about same,maybe a tick futher east.
Also shows upslope snows and flurries for smokey MTNS and favored E TN FWIW;RGEM still had the low in a great position for Central North Carolina but lighter amounts, really starting to think this wound up low is cutting down on the moisture transport west of the center.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
18z GFS is on deck