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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Webberweather53 said:
Yep, lol we're pretty much going back to the 12z run in the short range w/ the upper low closer to CA and s/w slower
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s/w looks more amped this run though even compared to 12z.
12z
namconus_z500_vort_us_38.png

00z
namconus_z500_vort_us_28.png
 
Given we practically erased the faster evolution of the s/w depicted on the 18z, in comparing the current run w/ today's 12z, our s/w looks stronger and the upper level trough off California is digging more which amplifies the west coast ridge. The stronger west coast ridge will help sharpen our wave downstream and is what the UKMET is showing. This is one reason why it's so much further NW of other guidance atm. We'll see how much this translates downstream and is reflected in the 0z GFS.
output_kXhtFD.gif
 
So far, looks like this NAM run is going to be better than 18z. Also, we will have better wave data in the coming days to really nail this down. It seems as it gets closer to observation networks, we get a slightly better solution. This is an excellent threat to learn to read 500mb maps guys! Try!
 
closed low at hr 51 and slower, and def. more tilt with it so far. not as positive. oh, and there is more seperation of the stream from the vortex in the east here comes the chaser as well
 
Hm, looks like a piece of energy is gonna come in from the West this run. Lets see if it effects the orientation/speed of the lead wave.
 
Shawn said:
Hm, looks like a piece of energy is gonna come in from the West this run. Lets see if it effects the orientation/speed of the lead wave.
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I was just noticing that also, don't believe that was there before.... could be a wrinkle we don't like?
 
Shawn said:
Hm, looks like a piece of energy is gonna come in from the West this run. Lets see if it effects the orientation/speed of the lead wave.
Click to expand...

Yeah looks like this little s/w entering the west will deposit a little extra vorticity into our primary wave but it cuts back on the ridge a little
 
The ridge setup isn't as sharp or so, the secondary wave can't just drop down. :(
 
Yeah, the low is forming further off the FL coast vs 18z. On to the GFS.
 
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