• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

GeorgiaGirl said:
For those of y'all that are westward (including me), the only key to really look for is if the waves can interact over eastern Arkansas and west Tennessee. If they do I think we're in. It sure won't be like what the NAM was depicting though, it'll be a light event.
Click to expand...
As it stands now, you almost can say we have a somewhat light event on our hands
 
whatalife said:
Will be interesting to see if the 18z NAM comes further NW with the precipitation shield.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I think there's a shot to get one more shift of about 50 miles with the precip shield. I don't think that the precip output has caught up to the big jump NW with the low that happened with the 12z runs.
 
o_O

26166771_1496680947111763_3209171311553112703_n.jpg
 
I wouldn't get to caught up in what local mets are putting out. Remember they have a responsibility to get it right not jump on a bandwagon. The EURO just has made a move towards the hi res models. It's hard to argue with Webber's map with this being so similar to Jan. 2000 but Alan Huffman has been doing this a long time as well as other local mets.....so has Greg Fishel. It's one of those scenarios that isn't a slam dunk but COULD be within the next 24 hours
 
Webberweather53 said:
We are literally one baby step away from January 2000 2.0, just a very modest increase in tilting of the s/w over GA and expansion of the precip shield over FL and southern GA and it will be virtually a carbon copy...
View attachment 2580

ERA-20C 0z January 25 2000 500 hpa vorticity, geopotential height, and wind
View attachment 2581

View attachment 2582

View attachment 2583
Click to expand...
I wonder if other mets just aren't seeing this, or if they just refuse to think it could happen again.
 
SREF models increased here in CAE from just over a inch to 2.5. But a 15 inch model is warping them a bit. Not sure what the heck the NAM is about to do.
 
Major kudos to the NAM and ICON, both of which have had for 3+ days a NNE movement of the surface low from the Grand Bahama Island vicinity and consequently more impact on land while almost all others had a NE movement and less impact on land. Now, you can see that all of the other models have capitulated to the ICON and NAM and have that NNE movement.

Note the continued NW trend of the heavier qpf. Now all of the globals including ensemble means except the GFS operational have around 0.50" of qpf here (I fully expect the GFS to reach 0.50" shortly; 12Z GEFS already has it) and I think that will increase further based on clearcut NW trends continuing. The 0.75" qpf is coming here imo as it is only barely offshore now. Ultimately, I really think the 1" qpf line will make it here.

Based on the above, it is now almost a certainty that this will be an historic storm for the area from N FL through SE GA through S SC. I still think that ZR will be limited in CHS-SAV corridor because I think the atmosphere aloft is too cold. So, for my area, I'm thinking it will start as either IP or SN and then transition to all SN if it isn't snow from the start. **IF** most of this ends up as SN, the chances of this ending up as the largest wintry accumulation since the first half of the 1800s for this area becomes quite likely (yes, you read that right)!!! The key will be what % ends up being snow assuming I'm right about qpf.
 
Guess I was wrong about Rah NWS, they just upgraded the counties in the Watch to an advisory but doesn't appear they have added any counties ??

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Move this to banter if needed, but I've got a question! I've gotta work tomorrow, at 2 different facilities, one in soperton Ga, the other in Lyons GA, roughly 25 miles apart... I'm trying to plan my day, do we have a ballpark time that the moisture will be moving into the area, and when changeover will occur? Thanks for any info, I'm just trying to be close to home in case the roads get bad!!
 
GaWx said:
Major kudos to the NAM and ICON, both of which have had for 3+ days a NNE movement of the surface low from the Grand Bahama Island vicinity and consequently more impact on land while almost all others had a NE movement and less impact on land. Now, you can see that all of the other models have capitulated to the ICON and NAM and have that NNE movement.

Note the continued NW trend of the heavier qpf. Now all of the globals including ensemble means except the GFS operational have around 0.50" of qpf here (I fully expect the GFS to reach 0.50" shortly; 12Z GEFS already has it) and I think that will increase further based on clearcut NW trends continuing. The 0.75" qpf is coming here imo as it is only barely offshore now. Ultimately, I really think the 1" qpf line will make it here.

Based on the above, it is now almost a certainty that this will be an historic storm for the area from N FL through SE GA through S SC. I still think that ZR will be limited in CHS-SAV corridor because I think the atmosphere aloft is too cold. So, for my area, I'm thinking it will start as either IP or SN and then transition to all SN if it isn't snow from the start. **IF** most of this ends up as SN, the chances of this ending up as the largest wintry accumulation since the first half of the 1800s for this area becomes quite likely (yes, you read that right)!!! The key will be what % ends up being snow assuming I'm right about qpf.
Click to expand...

This is clearly looking like the most significant winter storm down there in a long time.

I strongly feel the SC coastal plain right now has a legit 3"-6" threat. More into E NC and my best guesstimate easily says 2"-4" in SAV.
 
What could have been.. if that lead wave (which is stronger than we originally thought it would be) wasn't being kicked out by the Northern Stream wave. More separation would have put more in play.

We originally wanted the total phase when the lead wave was so weak/strung out. :(
 
Slp pops exact same location as 12z, not too many changes yet... lead wave might be a tick stronger

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Shawn said:
What could have been.. if that lead wave (which is stronger than we originally thought it would be) wasn't being kicked out by the Northern Stream wave. More separation would have put more in play.

We originally wanted the total phase when the lead wave was so weak/strung out. :(
Click to expand...
booooooooo
 
Why does the pivotal weather site show so much more precip further W than Tropical tidbits? and which is more reliable?
 
Has that double barrel low look off Fl, then a 3rd possible lp area of Ga/Fl, complicated system... dang

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
dcf891b031abba03cd2419b40a2e806f.jpg
 
Don't look as great as the 12z run. The last 4 days have been the same, great morning runs and bad afternoon to 00z runs lol
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top