DadOfJax
Member
Not at all.If this keeps shifting west could Atlanta Ga be in play for a little snow?
Not at all.If this keeps shifting west could Atlanta Ga be in play for a little snow?
As it stands now, you almost can say we have a somewhat light event on our handsFor those of y'all that are westward (including me), the only key to really look for is if the waves can interact over eastern Arkansas and west Tennessee. If they do I think we're in. It sure won't be like what the NAM was depicting though, it'll be a light event.
I think there's a shot to get one more shift of about 50 miles with the precip shield. I don't think that the precip output has caught up to the big jump NW with the low that happened with the 12z runs.Will be interesting to see if the 18z NAM comes further NW with the precipitation shield.
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I wonder if other mets just aren't seeing this, or if they just refuse to think it could happen again.We are literally one baby step away from January 2000 2.0, just a very modest increase in tilting of the s/w over GA and expansion of the precip shield over FL and southern GA and it will be virtually a carbon copy...
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ERA-20C 0z January 25 2000 500 hpa vorticity, geopotential height, and wind
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Wow, not expecting that. I was sure they were going to go up.The SREF's went down for many areas. Let's see if the Nam backs off in a little bit.
Yes, we know... but it's a good indication usually on what the NAM is about to do.The SREF is a horrible model, shouldn’t be taken seriously one way or another
Not really, it’s usually on its ownYes, we know... but it's a good indication usually on what the NAM is about to do.
Thank you.. that's what I thought.I can say that if the SREF ticks up, the NAM ticks up for the area in question 90% of the time.
They are going to bust hardGuess I was wrong about Rah NWS, they just upgraded the counties in the Watch to an advisory but doesn't appear they have added any counties ??
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Either they are or the short range hi res models are...They are going to bust hard
Major kudos to the NAM and ICON, both of which have had for 3+ days a NNE movement of the surface low from the Grand Bahama Island vicinity and consequently more impact on land while almost all others had a NE movement and less impact on land. Now, you can see that all of the other models have capitulated to the ICON and NAM and have that NNE movement.
Note the continued NW trend of the heavier qpf. Now all of the globals including ensemble means except the GFS operational have around 0.50" of qpf here (I fully expect the GFS to reach 0.50" shortly; 12Z GEFS already has it) and I think that will increase further based on clearcut NW trends continuing. The 0.75" qpf is coming here imo as it is only barely offshore now. Ultimately, I really think the 1" qpf line will make it here.
Based on the above, it is now almost a certainty that this will be an historic storm for the area from N FL through SE GA through S SC. I still think that ZR will be limited in CHS-SAV corridor because I think the atmosphere aloft is too cold. So, for my area, I'm thinking it will start as either IP or SN and then transition to all SN if it isn't snow from the start. **IF** most of this ends up as SN, the chances of this ending up as the largest wintry accumulation since the first half of the 1800s for this area becomes quite likely (yes, you read that right)!!! The key will be what % ends up being snow assuming I'm right about qpf.
boooooooooWhat could have been.. if that lead wave (which is stronger than we originally thought it would be) wasn't being kicked out by the Northern Stream wave. More separation would have put more in play.
We originally wanted the total phase when the lead wave was so weak/strung out.![]()
Looks familiar...*Do Not Say It
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If you look at the next frame, there is a little pocket in Alabama of snow. I can say snow because the column is fully saturated. Also, here's Birmingham's sounding for 1 H18. Looks closer than previous runs.*Do Not Say It
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Several have said it can't / won't make it back to ATL! This begs to differ. Hmmm*Do Not Say It
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Several have said it can't / won't make it back to ATL! This begs to differ. Hmmm