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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Got time for our area, Shawn.
Shawn said:
The surface reflection is likely wrong. It's wanting to allude to what the NAM does, but phasing occurs a bit earlier. The main SLP will likely be the one you see off the FL coast and it would creep upward and to the West as the negative tilt occurs. Have this run, but phase it even 12 hours sooner, and you have moisture back to at least the GSP area.
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Robert West said:
Got time for our area, Shawn.
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In likelihood based off Shane's maps above along with Southwest flow, there's likely more moisture than being depicted. I can't say for sure, until I get an idea of what the ensembles are doing later. Lets get that phase 12 hours or so earlier, and we are good, in most likelihood.
 
Broken024 said:
What are the chances of a phase 12 hours earlier? Seems unlikely with this only about 90 hours out?
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Its a very finicky situation. Phasing systems are never forecast well by computer modeling. The GFS just tried to throw a low out into the middle of the Atlantic, which is most likely wrong. 12 hours is not asking for much in this situation. I expect higher resolution modeling such as the 12KM NAM, German ICON, and EURO to model the energy better. From what I could see on the 18z NAM, there would have been none of that low out in Bermuda stuff.
 
With that above said, I think the GFS is a better case scenario for the Carolinas & parts of GA based on 500mb and earlier energy interaction than the NAM. The 12KM NAM would have been too late if it ran past 84, but it had the Low about where the GFS places the second one off the FL coast (without the other one).
 
Storm5 said:
There is like a 5 percent chance for anything from Atlanta to the west and that’s being nice . We had our storm earlier this month . This clearly favors the eastern parts of the Carolinas . We need to pull for those members . Lots of wishcasting going on for parts of Georgia to the west .....
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Atlanta and to the west did not already "have their storm." That early December storm covered a very small amount of land area and while it gave some of our members and historic storm, it left a ton of our members out.
 
I will say, and I agree with Shane and others have said earlier. The trends are good again with the GFS and I argue there will be a low closer to coast via me seeing the H5 look. Let's see if we keep trending good on tonight's 00z runs
 
1300m said:
18z NAM 700mb RH further west than 12z NAM or 12z GFS. Appeared to be phasing quickly but was definitely east and stronger than 12z run. Positioning of vort maxes were actually very similar to the 12z DWD-ICON.

18z NAM:
700rh.conus.png


12z NAM:
700rh.conus.png


12z GFS:
700rh.conus.png
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Trends are amazing my friend. Hope we can keep it up on tonight's runs
 
Pack on the other board just did an interesting write up about the reason the low wasn’t near the coast. If you look to the east of the sw when it’s about to phase you’ll notice a random vort near the Bahamas. The vort then tugs at the sw and prevents a clean phase. I looked over the past few runs of the gfs and cmc and they both have that vort in some form.. maybe Eric can give some insight on what exactly is happening here and if that is truly the reason for the low being placed much further to the NE rather than hugging the coast. If a small vort that comes out of nowhere is the reason this storm doesn’t work I’ll be upset and confused lmao
 
18z GEFS is slightly further EAST with the mean low and total precip line. Let's see what happens at 0z...
 
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