• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

I know where it was mentioned that having the lead wave stronger and less interacting with the other wave could be better. But, yesterday with the 18z NAM, there was phasing involved and we got a better result, QPF wise. So, why wouldn't that be what we would need in this situation?
 
DLI4SCwx said:
I know where it was mentioned that having the lead wave stronger and less interacting with the other wave could be better. But, yesterday with the 18z NAM, there was phasing involved and we got a better result, QPF wise. So, why wouldn't that be what we would need in this situation?
Click to expand...

I think this might well just be better in NC. The midlands and east Georgia....yeah we likely need a phase or for the waves to at least start to dance over Arkansas and west TN.
 
Canadian with a big jump west:
gem_apcpn_seus_7.png
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I think this might well just be better in NC. The midlands and east Georgia....yeah we likely need a phase or for the waves to at least start to dance over Arkansas and west TN.
Click to expand...
Yes more positive impact up this way unfortunately. As Webb pointed out the trailing wave acts as a kicker and shunted the slp east cutting down on totals.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I think this might well just be better in NC. The midlands and east Georgia....yeah we likely need a phase or for the waves to at least start to dance over Arkansas and west TN.
Click to expand...
Okay. I was curious because, I believe someone alluded to the fact, the less passing with lead wave being stronger, resulted in a Jan. 2000 type situation, IIRC. Nonetheless it's good to see the GFS shift West. We just need that SLP to keep trending that way. Hope we can see a more expansive QPF field as a result.
 
Here's my current thoughts for NC, I'm anticipating guidance to tick a little further NW (as usual) and for the high res models to have a better handle on this than the globals... As I've been saying for a while now, I like the bullseye to end up somewhere around the US-1 or I-95 corridors

January 3-4 2018 NC Snowstorm forecast.png
 
ColaSnow said:
He doesn't know. More like hoping or wishcasting.

Nevertheless, this timefame is typically the NAM's wheelhouse, so I hope it wins out in the end.
Click to expand...
It's hoping and an obvious look that the globals are starting to look more and more in line with the short term models. I understand we don't want to be disappointed here in the Midlands but I mean it's ok to hope.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's my current thoughts for NC, I'm anticipating guidance to tick a little further NW (as usual) and for the high res models to have a better handle on this than the globals... As I've been saying for a while now, I like the bullseye to end up somewhere around the US-1 or I-95 corridors

View attachment 2578
Click to expand...
Can you include a map of SC as well I'm in Florence which is 35 miles from the NC border and trying to get an idea for my area.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I think this might well just be better in NC. The midlands and east Georgia....yeah we likely need a phase or for the waves to at least start to dance over Arkansas and west TN.
Click to expand...
Just the Eastern part of NC, GSO west will get little to nothing from this storm, same with western SC and Ga. It would require another shift of 100+ miles to include those areas but that would also cause serious mixing or changing issues with our friends to the East of Raleigh with the increased WAA
 
What I really think might be going on is a compromise between the globals and the mesoscales. The globals probably (read: likely) haven't shifted enough but this 12z suite isn't completely lost like you saw previously.
 
1300m said:
I largely agree. I think the cutoff zone to the west will be extremely sharp and mixing to the east will come close to I-95. The 00z NAM last night is a good starting spot in my opinion in regards to the placement of the jackpot zone and transition zones.

nam3km_asnowd_seus_61.png
Click to expand...

Thanks yeah it's a tough call on where the back edge will be in central NC, probably somewhere between Hillsborough & Greensboro/Winston-Salem seems reasonable, but I think Raleigh is probably gonna be at least tucked inside the meat of the snow... Areas east of I-95 like Goldsboro, Greenville, & Williamston might get screwed over by sleet mixing in...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's my current thoughts for NC, I'm anticipating guidance to tick a little further NW (as usual) and for the high res models to have a better handle on this than the globals... As I've been saying for a while now, I like the bullseye to end up somewhere around the US-1 or I-95 corridors

View attachment 2578
Click to expand...
Webberweather53 said:
Thanks yeah it's a tough call on where the back edge will be in central NC, probably somewhere between Hillsborough & Greensboro/Winston-Salem seems reasonable, but I think Raleigh is probably gonna be at least tucked inside the meat of the snow... Areas east of I-95 like Goldsboro, Greenville, & Williamston might get screwed over by sleet mixing in...
Click to expand...
What's your input on the Midlands, Eric?
 
packfan98 said:
Huge shift west on the UKMET! Really cranks it too! Can't wait to see the precip panels.
Click to expand...
My guess is Euro follows but as I've mentioned before the Euro isn't my go to within 48 hrs haha... I'm all in. Shoot I just need the west trend to stop (selfish post)

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
My guess is Euro follows but as I've mentioned before the Euro isn't my go to within 48 hrs haha... I'm all in. Shoot I just need the west trend to stop (selfish post)

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Well, the GFS, Canadian, and UKMET all shifted the low 100 miles or so. The Euro must go with it.
 
Robert West said:
What's your input on the Midlands, Eric?
Click to expand...

I think the precip shield could get as far west as Columbia, SC and anything that falls will immediately stick to the ground, there's going to be a sharp cut-off in the back edge of the precip somewhere near CAE. Essentially if you're north of I-20 and east of I-77 in northeastern SC, you have a pretty good shot for accumulating snow...
 
Last February cemented the NAM in my mind. Spot on with that storm. Regardless of what it shows, I have a tendency to believe its output at such a short range.
 
packfan98 said:
Precip panel from the UKIE
P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif
Click to expand...
Umm ok... the Webb, 1300 jackpot zone right there, would be a paste bomb along I-95 corridor. I'm not sure westward corrections are finished if I were in and around RDU don't jump

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
DSj_Nmx1_UEAAYADc.jpg-large.jpg

UPSTREAM BLOCKING ANOTHER KEY TO STORMTRACK The GFS 500mb map shows blocking upstream that has been ultimately playing with the proposed storm track Thursday. The more this builds the more west we see the track. This is another KEY feature to watch
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think the precip shield could get as far west as Columbia, SC and anything that falls will immediately stick to the ground, there's going to be a sharp cut-off in the back edge of the precip somewhere near CAE. Essentially if you're north of I-20 and east of I-77 in northeastern SC, you have a pretty good shot for accumulating snow...
Click to expand...
Hoping this thing keeps shifting West so we don't have to be on the edge of glory
 
Its been a while since we've seen a developing storm subject to this many variables. I may be wrong, but nothing has been cut & dry about this at all.
 
I really wish the UKMET was better with the precip maps on the main thing we use, haha. I think that's light precip as far as where I am but since it's the metric system I'm not sure at all. May just be virga.
 
metwannabe said:
Umm ok... the Webb, 1300 jackpot zone right there, would be a paste bomb along I-95 corridor. I'm not sure westward corrections are finished if I were in and around RDU don't jump

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah the UKMET is trending towards a pants busting event along I-95 and US-1
 
Was watching new live stream from Columbia, they don't say a thing about the wintry wx chance there.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top