• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_39.png
 
Later phase, tilt slower. Basically, a step away for interior sections. Still good for the coastal.
 
I think that does it for me. May still be good for interior NC but interior GA outside of South GA is out.

Hard to be mad though about it. It's even rarer for the coast to get anything. What I don't understand is the L was WEST LOL.
 
Yeh confused on why noone is noticing the placement of the low compared to the precip shield.
 
NAM 3km will be similar. Goodbye insane inland NC snow.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The southern vort intensified and tilted a little faster w/o interaction from the northern stream and the surface low placement is pretty ideal for a big hit between the I-95 and US-1 corridors. A track over or west of Hatteras usually leads to mixing issues in RDU, 50-100 miles offshore is about where you want it here. Just an fyi, the tropical tidbits 12km NAM precip maps also suck.

Screen Shot 2018-01-01 at 9.21.42 PM.png
 
Jon said:
NAM 3km will be similar. Goodbye insane inland NC snow.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The TT 12km NAM reflectivity maps are bad, there's still snow into the eastern piedmont of NC on this run verbatim
 

Attachments

  • namconus_ref_frzn_seus_40.png
    namconus_ref_frzn_seus_40.png
    165.3 KB · Views: 36
Rain Cold said:
Ok, wait till 6z then. It doesn’t mean we can’t get snow. You’re too emotional about this. There are still plenty of snow scenarios on the table. It would be nice for a global to show some of them.
Click to expand...
No, just hate when people say one run different from the other runs is a trend. One run is not the definition of the word trend.
 
Stormsfury said:
With the later phase, the pull is not as pronounced NW this run...inverted trough is still there, but less warm nosing apparent with a thinner transitional line...
Click to expand...
Whats funny is the sfc low is closer to the coast yet less precip....ya....there is no easy way to say this, but what changes on the NAM both 12km and 3km and not in a good way....NAM=FAIL this run for sure.
 
Last frame is the newest. Much further East with precip shield for GA/SC especially. This is like 4 NAM runs.

giphy.gif
 
packfan98 said:
Agreed. It would be more accurate to say that the nam took a step towards the other models.
Click to expand...
That’s semantics. The bottom line is, the early phase that the Nam was showing that was absent on all the other models is gone. That tells me that the Nam was probably wrong. That isn’t Debbie Downer. It’s just an unfortunate fact.
 
Yep, big change within hours of the players both being on the field in the continental usa. Sorry my KCAE/GA friends.
 
Jon pointed it out clearly. The trailing wave got held up by the GL vort . See if that's the case rest of tonight in to tommorow.
 
Actually 3km is good for NC and thats about it...even GA and SC coastlines...forget about inland GA and SC this run
 
deltadog03 said:
Whats funny is the sfc low is closer to the coast yet less precip....ya....there is no easy way to say this, but what changes on the NAM both 12km and 3km and not in a good way....NAM=FAIL this run for sure.
Click to expand...

Funny thing is that the globals could continue a slight west adjustment...there was a key difference on this run, though, so I wonder how that will affect the 00z suite. Definitely though, NAM trended towards the EURO and looks more like the RGEM in some aspects.

It will be interesting to see if the globals have a stronger lead wave, how will they respond at the SFC tonight
 
deltadog03 said:
Actually 3km is good for NC and thats about it...even GA and SC coastlines...forget about inland GA and SC this run
Click to expand...
in NC it's all about sfc lp track. Yea a super jacked up lp is nice but a weaker one hugging the SC coast and on a more north trajectory will get enough qpf to whiten the brown ground.
 
Shawn said:
Last frame is the newest. Much further East with precip shield for GA/SC especially. This is like 4 NAM runs.

giphy.gif
Click to expand...

Well you can definitely see it consolidated quite a line of convection over the Gulf Stream on the 00z run... part of your moisture transport problem
 
Don't get me wrong still a very hard hit for NFL and the coastal areas of GA and SC. Just not as much
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top