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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

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We really need to see other models come on board tonight. Latest RGEM gives me an inch as opposed to a foot+. Getting nervous about the NAM way over-amping this system. I'm not ready to bite yet until certain other models are showing me more than a half inch. The SREFS are usually useless so I'm not including those.
 
I get the feeling that if the short range models begin to back off or go even slightly back East tonight then that's likely a sign, an eventually would meet somewhere with the Euro. But if they stay the same or keep going West then i really think the short range models will lead the way here. Someone has to budge. Will it be the Euro/GFS or the short range models? The golden question.
 
18z GFS sticks to its guns...wont happen this run


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I definitely would put a lot more stock on the mesoscale models like the NAM and RGEM in a situation like this where resolving convection matters a lot in the forecast and none of the globals are capable of doing it. I just don't think people realize how much these solutions are capable of differing even at this range in a setup like this.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I definitely would put a lot more stock on the mesoscale models like the NAM and RGEM in a situation like this where resolving convection matters a lot in the forecast and none of the globals are capable of doing it. I just don't think people realize how much these solutions are capable of differing even at this range in a setup like this.
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I wonder what models they mets went with before the Jan 2000 storm.
 
Robert West said:
RGEM total wise, doesn't look quite as impressive as the NAM. Barely makes it to CAE
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And those large changes are based directly by 500mb and a slower phase. Timing and amplification is everything here. We had the RGEM closing the lead wave off, teasing a very big SE snowstorm, it opened back up, and was too late.
 
If I were a betting man, I'd go with the RGEM. NAM likely over-amping this and the globals are under-amping this. As Alan(RaleighWx) also noted in a tweet, the arctic kicker dropping down is going to funnel in too much dry air in the mid-levels and cause a sharp cut-off in the SE.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I wonder what models they mets went with before the Jan 2000 storm.
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Well virtually non of the models back then even had anything 48 hours out, in the case study analysis I performed on the event earlier this semester I think I the higher res models caught on just a split second sooner than the globals but by then it was almost too late. While we have come a ways since that time I definitely think the high res models are the way to go. The coarser global NWP have almost unanimously shifted west over the past few days apart from the NAVGEM which was the western outlier from the onset
 
Shawn said:
And those large changes are based directly by 500mb and a slower phase. Timing and amplification is everything here. We had the RGEM closing the lead wave off, teasing a very big SE snowstorm, it opened back up, and was too late.
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I guess if this was to happen NWS CAE would issue something at the last second
 
LovingGulfLows said:
If I were a betting man, I'd go with the RGEM. NAM likely over-amping this and the globals are under-amping this. As Alan(RaleighWx) also noted in a tweet, the arctic kicker dropping down is going to funnel in too much dry air in the mid-levels and cause a sharp cut-off in the SE.
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The models usually do a piss poor job with handling the northwesterly extent and intensity of the precip shield in events like this so I'm not sure or very confident that we'll see a consistent shift SE over the next day or so, if anything more NW adjustments seem probable given everything at hand
 
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