• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Shawn said:
I'd rather see if hugging the coast at this point; because the trend is not our friend. With that said, this run was a bit wonky on the surface reflection.

Guess what though! There is a wave coming in off Cali this run, where it goes; who knows. Guess we can use the January thread for that one.

EDIT: Warm air can always get in the mid levels with a strengthening low's track too close. The NE misses out on this run, also.
Click to expand...
But there's a ridge coming with that southern California shortwave. Who to say the cold lasts that long by the time that gets here? Probably won't. Our pattern has just run out almost. Eventually it'll get warm and we're out.
 
[
Clayton Reid said:
But there's a ridge coming with that southern California shortwave. Who to say the cold lasts that long by the time that gets here? Probably won't. Our pattern has just run out almost. Eventually it'll get warm and we're out.
Click to expand...
how many times are you going say the exact same thing we get it. it would be one thing if you actually put some evidence forward supporting this thought.
 
EastAtlwx said:
[

how many times are you going say the exact same thing we get it. it would be one thing if you actually put some evidence forward supporting this thought.
Click to expand...
No I'm just saying a ridge is coming even on the GFS and Euro and that's evidence because we know the warm up is inevitable, how much longer can this cold really last in the South? So more likely, it probably be to warm and be rain. The pattern relax may be a double-edged sword and we still miss out. I'm just getting less confident at this point. It seems like a worthless chase filled with false hopes/threats and fantasies that never produce. Just being honest. If we get one storm to produce out of that I will be proven wrong, but there's no way of telling if the cold air supply will actually even continue and can end at any moment. Not saying whether or not it will happen. But with a pattern this cold this long and we still can't produce has to make you wonder if a California s/w with make any difference at all, especially given the uncertainty with the duration of the cold and inevitable warm up.
 
Last edited:
Clayton Reid said:
No I'm just saying a ridge is coming even on the GFS and Euro and that's evidence because we know the warm up is inevitable, how much longer can this cold really last in the South? So more likely, it probably be to warm and be rain. The pattern relax may be a double-edged sword and we still miss out. I'm just getting less confident at this point. It seems like a worthless chase filled with false hopes/threats and fantasies that never produce. Just being honest. If we get one storm to produce out of that I will be proven wrong, but there's no way of telling if the cold air supply will actually even continue and can end at any moment. Not saying whether or not it will happen. But with a pattern this cold this long and we still can't produce has to make you wonder if a California s/w with make any difference at all, especially given the uncertainty with the duration of the cold and inevitable warm up.
Click to expand...
Fair enough, I understand your frustration. However, it is the fact you said the same thing five times without any more details or more supporting evidence. This isn’t the banter thread dude. It’s about evolving discussion and being objective here.
 
Me and I feel like the temps are not going to be severe cold like some models say and still possible for some moisture to creep in over the next few days. A beautiful pink sunrise and no wind makes me feel positive.
accu35 said:
Im looking for positive good trends today. Whos with me?
Click to expand...
 
Wildboutsnow said:
Me and I feel like the temps are not going to be severe cold like some models say and still possible for some moisture to creep in over the next few days. A beautiful pink sunrise and no wind makes me feel positive.
Click to expand...
Yes noticed that also... maybe if we all think "nice thoughts" we can do the "mind over matter" thing...lol
 
Clayton Reid said:
But there's a ridge coming with that southern California shortwave. Who to say the cold lasts that long by the time that gets here? Probably won't. Our pattern has just run out almost. Eventually it'll get warm and we're out.
Click to expand...
Somebody send this guy on his way. Saying the same BS every post even after Webb has explained how incredibly wrong he is. I will take SL's role here and call it like I see it...TROLL!
 
DadOfJax said:
Somebody send this guy on his way. Saying the same BS every post even after Webb has explained how incredibly wrong he is. I will take SL's role here and call it like I see it...TROLL!
Click to expand...
Do you think it's gonna warm up after we get hit with a winter storm or no? Idk but anybody wanna guess our chances?
 
Storm5 said:
Last day for me . I’ll give it till 00z tonight then I’m out. Trends are horrible . Need a miracle at this point and by miracle I mean big H5 changes
Click to expand...
I'm with you if not any good changes by tonight I am waiving the white flag.
 
If anybody has an instance where it stayed cold for very long time enough to allow a miracle California shortwave to hit and produce a major board wide winter storm please show me and I will be proven wrong.
 
Weather related here, i think we can get a little more moisture than what models are showing for the NYE/NYD system. Gfs has been little more moist in the last couple runs the Nam is looking half way healty with its moisture. Who knows at this point. Short range models starts coming in, then we should have a better handle on this NY system. Im all about surprises
 
accu35 said:
Weather related here, i think we can get a little more moisture than what models are showing for the NYE/NYD system. Gfs has been little more moist in the last couple runs the Nam is looking half way healty with its moisture. Who knows at this point. Short range models starts coming in, then we should have a better handle on this NY system. Im all about surprises
Click to expand...
Maybe we can. Who knows. The moisture shield may be underdone as in previous systems. But we shall see. I think it's more likely it is suppressed though. Just not a good setup for a storm, let alone much moisture for big surprises.
 
I don't get it. It's not at all uncommon for waves to come in from California and interact with a cold air mass to produce a winter storm in the SE. I mean, it's not all that common to get snow in the SE, but that scenario is definitely a favored option, especially in a Nino.
 
Ok well hopefully we can get a miracle and cash in on a bad boy shortwave with enough cold air in place to get an overrunning event like Eric is so adamant that it can happen. If it does, I will give him due credit even though I'm doubtful at this time given we can't even score with the cold we have now. That will be the end of this for now. I apologize for any irritation.
 
Clayton Reid said:
What happened with the January 88 storm? Was it very cold beforehand? I'm sure that probably came from a California shortwave but I'm not sure.
Click to expand...
Spent that New Years Eve in Atlanta. I remember when we left Atlanta to head home, which was probably on the 2nd or 3rd, it was cold. That storm came in on the 7th. I know it came from the area of the 4 corners.
 
Yeah waves coming in Washington state seems too clipper like to me and you know how they usually work out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You can get waves entering the CONUS from many places and be fine, as long as the background is supportive. A wave entering WA and taking the escalator down to SC won't work. You need blocking to cause the flow to slow and buckle. Or you need perfect timing/interaction between waves to get a phaser at just the right time. That's hard. Blocking makes it so much easier with the kind of trajectory we currently have, which Webber has been saying. Given the current background, we are going to either need a perfectly timed phase or need the STJ to spring to life and give us a wave traversing the southern tier. Sometimes, you can get a wave entering ND and take the elevator virtually straight down and spawn a storm. The current background doesn't support it, though. It's all about what the pattern supports.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top