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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

This is a horrible start of your wanting to see better trends for the midweek wave . Too flat and further east into eastern Montana vs previous runs
f9cd0ace0eb8332ebc5de53f71597607.jpg



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We ride what looks the best

That's what she sa- ....nevermind....want to be careful for the children.

I know most might be hesitant to admit it, but it's certainly not far from the truth.
NAM has been more bullish on precip, but there isn't anything getting through that shredder unscathed. We shall see though.
 
This is a horrible start of your wanting to see better trends for the midweek wave . Too flat and further east into eastern Montana vs previous runs
f9cd0ace0eb8332ebc5de53f71597607.jpg



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It's definitely strung out but about the same location, your looking @78 valid 18z Monday only the 06z NAM went out that far, the 0z did not. But to your point here is our s/w valid at 12z Monday which was at the end of the 0z, on the 6z and 12z...its a mess no 2 ways about it
f6e8fb4339fba218104fb74a8039660e.gif


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It's definitely strung out but about the same location, your looking @78 valid 18z Monday only the 06z NAM went out that far, the 0z did not. But to your point here is our s/w valid at 12z Monday which was at the end of the 0z, on the 6z and 12z...its a mess no 2 ways about it
f6e8fb4339fba218104fb74a8039660e.gif


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More problematic is the trough in the NE is pushing further SW, suppression and out west ridge not nearly tall enough as showmeyourtd's (name fools me every time lol) mentioned.

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It's definitely strung out but about the same location, your looking @78 valid 18z Monday only the 06z NAM went out that far, the 0z did not. But to your point here is our s/w valid at 12z Monday which was at the end of the 0z, on the 6z and 12z...its a mess no 2 ways about it
f6e8fb4339fba218104fb74a8039660e.gif


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You two need to be patient. It will come around. Please note of how it is now spitting out token flakes for this NYE/NYD.


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rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_54.png
This was 6z thia morning, but its trying something to. 12z is running
 
I’ve seen a 12k, 4K, and 3k NAM referenced... what’s the difference?

It's the horizontal resolution of the model. So the 3km NAM is run at a finer resolution than the 12km one. The higher resolution doesn't necessarily mean it is more accurate, but it can sometimes pick up on things that the lower resolution runs don't.
 
What happened with the January 88 storm? Was it very cold beforehand? I'm sure that probably came from a California shortwave but I'm not sure.
If anybody has an instance where it stayed cold for very long time enough to allow a miracle California shortwave to hit and produce a major board wide winter storm please show me and I will be proven wrong.

Let me grab more examples, I could come up with more, but that would probably bore some of you to death, and after a while you should see the pattern, if anything getting a shortwave to crash into California is probably very beneficial for most of the board to score big. In a La Nina pattern like we have now with plenty of cold air and a very extensive, persistent vortex in SE Canada and the Great Lakes and dominant northern stream, and no blocking over north-central Canada or Greenland to create an atmospheric traffic jam over east-central North America, we have to get shortwaves to crash into California and cut-off from the northern stream to give us any chance whatsoever for a major board-wide winter storm. Sure, it could get milder in advance of the s/w but you do realize we have absolutely no chance of a big board wide event with the pattern we have now right? Just to reiterate, putting a shortwave into California would allow us to finally tap into the rich Gulf of Mexico and central-eastern Pacific moisture and amplify the southern branch of the jet. Without this critical piece of the pattern, a big, board wide storm is probably not happening, as we've observed with the last 3 busted threats which have all originated from shortwaves entering the Pacific NW or Northern Rockies...

Here's a 500 hpa geopotential height (contours), wind (wind barbs), and vorticity (shaded) animation via ECMWF's 20th century Reanalysis for the February 1973 snowstorm. Notice in the beginning a shortwave embedded within the subtropical jet, enters the North American continent through southern California & the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. The strong El Nino at the time likely gave a major boost to this shortwave and contributed to this s/w remaining very intense so far south.
February-8-11-1973-500-animation.gif



Earlier that same year, another major winter storm in early January, which produced a historic ice storm in the Atlanta metro area and resulted in several inches of snow in portions of NC & upstate SC. The shortwave which triggered this event crashed into California on January 5th, and a piece cut off from the mean flow and merged with another s/w over the east-central subtropical Pacific and lifted northeastward into the southern Plains and lower MS valley on the 7th, producing a lot of snow & ice from GA to the Carolinas in the process. This 500 hPa geopotential height, wind, and vorticity animation, like the one above, is also from ECMWF's 20th Century Reanalysis dataset.
January-5-7-1973-500-animation.gif


February 28, 1980, immediately before a major blizzard broke out in eastern NC (which dropped more than 1-2 feet of snow for a majority in the eastern part of the state), the shortwave that triggered the event enters the US through central California
022812.gif



January 11, 1982, immediately preceding the infamous "snow jam" event in Atlanta, the shortwave that eventually produces the big storm is entering the US from southern California, the Baja of NW Mexico, and Arizona.
011115.png.gif


March 23, 1983, the shortwave that would set off a major early spring snowstorm in NC which dumped up to 10" of snow in Lumberton, NC enters the US through California a few days prior to the storm.
032303.gif


January 5, 1988, immediately preceding the huge/infamous overrunning event from Texas and Oklahoma to the Carolinas, the s/w which eventually results in a winter storm over the SE US is entering the US from California and there's a big vortex over SE Canada.
010521.png.gif


The shortwave that immediately preceded the March 1993 Superstorm which produced blizzard conditions from southern Alabama to the Canadian border, is entering the US stage left through California on March 10th w/ a healthy vortex over the Great Lakes
031021.gif


December 31, 2001 preceding a big board wide event on January 1-3 2002, the shortwave which eventually led to a big winter storm in the SE US is entering the US thru California and Nevada and there's a big vortex over SE Canada
123109.png.gif


Immediately preceding the February 12-13 2010 event which led to a big snowstorm from Texas to North Carolina, the shortwave which accompanied this storm entered south-central California on February 10th.
021009.gif
ruc_snow_precip_24hr_2010021305_National.jpg


January 7, 2011, the shortwave that helped kick off the amazing winter storm that would come a few days later is entering the contiguous US through southern California.
010718.gif
 
Let me grab more examples, I could come up with more, but that would probably bore some of you to death, and after a while you should see the pattern, if anything getting a shortwave to crash into California is probably very beneficial for most of the board to score big. In a La Nina pattern like we have now with plenty of cold air and a very extensive, persistent vortex in SE Canada and the Great Lakes and dominant northern stream, and no blocking over north-central Canada or Greenland to create an atmospheric traffic jam over east-central North America, we have to get shortwaves to crash into California and cut-off from the northern stream to give us any chance whatsoever for a major board-wide winter storm. Sure, it could get milder in advance of the s/w but you do realize we have absolutely no chance of a big board wide event with the pattern we have now right? Just to reiterate, putting a shortwave into California would allow us to finally tap into the rich Gulf of Mexico and central-eastern Pacific moisture and amplify the southern branch of the jet. Without this critical piece of the pattern, a big, board wide storm is probably not happening, as we've observed with the last 3 busted threats which have all originated from shortwaves entering the Pacific NW or Northern Rockies...

Here's a 500 hpa geopotential height (contours), wind (wind barbs), and vorticity (shaded) animation via ECMWF's 20th century Reanalysis for the February 1973 snowstorm. Notice in the beginning a shortwave embedded within the subtropical jet, enters the North American continent through southern California & the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. The strong El Nino at the time likely gave a major boost to this shortwave and contributed to this s/w remaining very intense so far south.
February-8-11-1973-500-animation.gif



Earlier that same year, another major winter storm in early January, which produced a historic ice storm in the Atlanta metro area and resulted in several inches of snow in portions of NC & upstate SC. The shortwave which triggered this event crashed into California on January 5th, and a piece cut off from the mean flow and merged with another s/w over the east-central subtropical Pacific and lifted northeastward into the southern Plains and lower MS valley on the 7th, producing a lot of snow & ice from GA to the Carolinas in the process. This 500 hPa geopotential height, wind, and vorticity animation, like the one above, is also from ECMWF's 20th Century Reanalysis dataset.
January-5-7-1973-500-animation.gif


February 28, 1980, immediately before a major blizzard broke out in eastern NC (which dropped more than 1-2 feet of snow for a majority in the eastern part of the state), the shortwave that triggered the event enters the US through central California
View attachment 2413



January 11, 1982, immediately preceding the infamous "snow jam" event in Atlanta, the shortwave that eventually produces the big storm is entering the US from southern California, the Baja of NW Mexico, and Arizona.
View attachment 2406


March 23, 1983, the shortwave that would set off a major early spring snowstorm in NC which dumped up to 10" of snow in Lumberton, NC enters the US through California a few days prior to the storm.
View attachment 2411


January 5, 1988, immediately preceding the huge/infamous overrunning event from Texas and Oklahoma to the Carolinas, the s/w which eventually results in a winter storm over the SE US is entering the US from California and there's a big vortex over SE Canada.
View attachment 2405


The shortwave that immediately preceded the March 1993 Superstorm which produced blizzard conditions from southern Alabama to the Canadian border, is entering the US stage left through California on March 10th w/ a healthy vortex over the Great Lakes
View attachment 2407


December 31, 2001 preceding a big board wide event on January 1-3 2002, the shortwave which eventually led to a big winter storm in the SE US is entering the US thru California and Nevada and there's a big vortex over SE Canada
View attachment 2404


Immediately preceding the February 12-13 2010 event which led to a big snowstorm from Texas to North Carolina, the shortwave which accompanied this storm entered south-central California on February 10th.
View attachment 2410
View attachment 2409


January 7, 2011, the shortwave that helped kick off the amazing winter storm that would come a few days later is entering the contiguous US through southern California.
View attachment 2408
Good stuff, as always
 
At this point, I think the best bets for the next few days is getting a token bit of precip just far enough north (as the NAM has hinted at) before the remainder of the energy gets surpressed. Just not getting the right approach of the energy coming out of the West, as others far more knowledgeable than myself have explained (very valuable, too; thank you!).

The BIG story next week to me is the massive cold hitting the Southeast. Once that relaxes a bit, and if the indications of getting ridging in the west and/or shortwave energy entering the U.S. at a lower latitude (SoCal vs. the Pac NW), then we could get something that rides the southern jet and taps into the Gulf energy. Relaxing the cold does not necessarily mean we soar to 60 degrees a day or two later. It will take time to scour out the deep cold penetrating way south next week.

Either way, I'm keeping perspective. Yes, getting snow during this big cold outbreak would be amazing. To me, the 8 inches of snow I got at my house 16 days before Christmas (in a very unfavorable week climo-wise) makes any single flake or pinger I see the rest of winter just gravy.

--30--
 
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