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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

1300m said:
Isn't it pretty obvious where the surface low should be tracking with a neg tilted H5 trough and this setting out there? If the low doesn't adjust significantly further west with this setup I'm going to have to go back to school for a while.

namconus_T2m_seus_50.png
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No doubt. I think this is going to sit just off shore near Jax
 
Once again like most models have been doing, the 18Z GFS has the sfc low move NE from Grand Bahama Island. If it had instead moved NNE like the NAM and ICON runs have been showing, it would have been a major SE coastal hit. So, which direction is that low likely to travel?
 
SimeonNC said:
I don't think this is slipping away though.
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I was just kind of kidding. It could go either way. But I can tell you this: I’ve heard how models are wrong for not showing snow way more than I’ve actually seen snow falling from the sky.
 
Rain Cold said:
I was just kind of kidding. It could go either way. But I can tell you this: I’ve heard how models are wrong for not showing snow way more than I’ve actually seen snow falling from the sky.
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Well we'll see with the next few runs, honestly I think you're in a really good spot.
 
SimeonNC said:
Well we'll see with the next few runs, honestly I think you're in a really good spot.
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Yeah, I’m just hoping to see some snow falls big for a change. It’s definitely not too far away from something nice for this area. It I want to go ahead and start seeing a model show me something.
 
I think this may end up being pretty darn correct when it talks about where the moisture gets, barring some larger changes (we are running out of time):

P1_GZ_D5_PN_078_0000.gif
 
Shawn said:
18z ICON showing a better idea than the GFS, me thinks.

GZ_D5_PN_078_0000.gif
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Still another ICON run (at least 5 in a row) with a NNE move of the surface low from Grand Bahama Island, which is similar to recent NAM runs and leads to major impacts making it onto land, but different from most other models with their NE movement and thus less impact on land.
 
Some really interesting changes on today's model runs. Euro is very close to something really good for some and the nam made a huge jump.

I will say this though, if your in Birmingham or Atlanta or Greenville this is not your storm.

As of now RDU to in-between CHS and CAE to maybe Valdosta, that's the best shot at this point.

***IF*** models keep trending better, then maybe central GA to CAE to CLT and GSO has a shot. Maybe even southern MS and sounthern AL

Facebook live later tonight for sure.
And for the record, if the trends keep going in a favorable Direction and we can phase the two pieces of energy a little quicker and turn it negative I do expect the surface low to pop near and just east of Jacksonville
 
Yep we eitheir need to get a more northward heading or surface lp to form futher up the Florida coast.
 
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CMC looks good! Rain_Cold gets fringed!
 
deltadog03 said:
Some really interesting changes on today's model runs. Euro is very close to something really good for some and the nam made a huge jump.

I will say this though, if your in Birmingham or Atlanta or Greenville this is not your storm.

As of now RDU to in-between CHS and CAE to maybe Valdosta, that's the best shot at this point.

***IF*** models keep trending better, then maybe central GA to CAE to CLT and GSO has a shot. Maybe even southern MS and sounthern AL

Facebook live later tonight for sure.
And for the record, if the trends keep going in a favorable Direction and we can phase the two pieces of energy a little quicker and turn it negative I do expect the surface low to pop near and just east of Jacksonville
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If the low pops all the way back to near or just offshore Jacksonville, that would likely mean mainly rain nearly all coastal sections of FL/GA/SC based on history. I'd like it to be about 150-200 miles offshore for selfish reasons. I fully respect your forecast and realize that continued NW trends could lead to this, but no offense I sure as hope you're going to end up wrong on this. But that would be great for you and maybe even further NW of you. And credit to you for a pretty gutsy call. This is about as exciting a potential winter storm tracking as I've ever experienced.
 
Rain Cold said:
This phrase, commonly seen in winter, represents Stage 3 in the 5 stages of grief over a snowstorm that is slowly slipping away.
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O
Rain Cold said:
This phrase, commonly seen in winter, represents Stage 3 in the 5 stages of grief over a snowstorm that is slowly slipping away.
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grief over what? Also I'm near the coast in VA I should have a decent shot
 
GaWx said:
If the low pops all the way back to near or just offshore Jacksonville, that would likely mean mainly rain nearly all coastal sections of FL/GA/SC based on history. I'd like it to be about 150-200 miles offshore for selfish reasons. I fully respect your forecast and realize that continued NW trends could lead to this, but no offense I sure as hope you're going to end up wrong on this. But that would be great for you and maybe even further NW of you. And credit to you for a pretty gutsy call. This is about as exciting a potential winter storm tracking as I've ever experienced.
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Well Larry, thank you for the kind words. It means a lot. I thank you because we have all learned a ton from you over the years. Me especially. I hope y'all get a fantastic snow. Even if it gets closer to y'all there is so much cold around I wouldn't expect anything less than snow and or mix but not rain for y'all either. Ya, if it can get closer us in mid GA might have a shot. I just want my wife and kiddos to have a fun snow day.
 
Tarheel1 said:
CMC looks good! Rain_Cold gets fringed!
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Typical! The trends are good today. However, I want at least one model to show us what we all want to see. Just one. We’ve spent all day clawing back what we gave up last night. We need these trends to continue in earnest, and we can’t afford anymore give-backs overnight. Who has NYE duty this evening?
 
Did a lot of digging earlier, and IMO December 1958 is about as close as it gets in terms of analogs... The one key difference that sets our current event apart from Dec 1958 is the fact that the southern stream could never align properly with the northern branch to tilt the entire longwave trough negative which suggests our current storm may have room to move further NW, but we'll see. Still what resulted was a pretty expansive area of snow in east-central NC, with a hit centered on the I-95 corridor. RDU took a big hit and even though they didn't get into the core of this storm, it's biggest snow in Raleigh in December on record. Snow fell as far west as Greensboro & Charlotte which imo is a legitimate western cut-off for our event atm in a very general sense based on what's at hand atm.

December 10-12 1958 500 hPa anomaly animation (NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis)
output_BgL2jx.gif

c80146bb-919d-4145-a7fe-287c0be9c439.gif



GFS 500 hPa vorticity, geopotential height, & wind forecast
gfs_z500_vort_us_fh12-90.gif



December 8-12 1958 500 hpa vorticity, geopotential height, and wind via ERA-20C
Dec-8-12-1958-500-hPa-animation.gif



December 11-12 1958 NC Snow map.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Did a lot of digging earlier, and IMO December 1958 is about as close as it gets in terms of analogs... The one key difference that sets our current event apart from Dec 1958 is the fact that the southern stream could never align properly with the northern branch to tilt the entire longwave trough negative. Still what resulted was a pretty expansive area of snow in east-central NC, with a hit centered on the I-95 corridor. RDU took a big hit and even though they didn't get into the core of this storm, it's biggest snow in Raleigh in December on record. Snow fell as far west as Greensboro & Charlotte which imo is a legitimate western cut-off for our event atm in a very general sense based on what's at hand atm.

December 10-12 1958 500 hPa anomaly animation (NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis)
View attachment 2503

c80146bb-919d-4145-a7fe-287c0be9c439.gif



GFS 500 hPa vorticity, geopotential height, & wind forecast
gfs_z500_vort_us_fh12-90.gif



December 8-12 1958 500 hpa vorticity, geopotential height, and wind via ERA-20C
Dec-8-12-1958-500-hPa-animation.gif



View attachment 2502
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That looks like a huge hit for tidewater Virginia too wow!! Hope it's like that lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
Did a lot of digging earlier, and IMO December 1958 is about as close as it gets in terms of analogs... The one key difference that sets our current event apart from Dec 1958 is the fact that the southern stream could never align properly with the northern branch to tilt the entire longwave trough negative which suggests our current storm may have room to move further NW, but we'll see. Still what resulted was a pretty expansive area of snow in east-central NC, with a hit centered on the I-95 corridor. RDU took a big hit and even though they didn't get into the core of this storm, it's biggest snow in Raleigh in December on record. Snow fell as far west as Greensboro & Charlotte which imo is a legitimate western cut-off for our event atm in a very general sense based on what's at hand atm.


GFS 500 hPa vorticity, geopotential height, & wind forecast

December 8-12 1958 500 hpa vorticity, geopotential height, and wind via ERA-20C


View attachment 2502
Click to expand...

That accumulations map on the bottom of your post is what I'm kind of thinking, though not in the exact amounts it's shown.
 
Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 39m39 minutes ago
Pay attention to where models stall cold front off SE coast, how much recovery occurs upstream of tropical air mass and any additional s/w slowing Tues PM into Wed AM. Critical point for storm mid week.
Little by little with slowing s/w, boundary layer recovery near SE Coast and further NW cold front will help polar front cyclogenesis and western side precipitation.
 
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