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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

accu35 said:
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png
CMC
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Notice where that shortwave came ashore ... Eric strikes again hahah
 
I think Webber has the best idea if we get those waves to crash into Cali then we got a shot and I don't think the cold is gonna leave maybe a slight warm up but nothing crazy
 
I think we have some things to work with so far today. NYE NYD has obviously been trending better on nearly every model output and we still have time to work with the mid week storm. Maybe we can turn some things around here. Trying to be positive today haha
 
Webberweather53 said:
That last run actually didn't look too good in comparison to previous suites, the wave is generally flatter and has a more evident positive tilt.
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Imo, it looks somewhat better vs the 0Z/6Z GFS runs of yesterday for the chance for something for especially near the coast 1/3. Nothing earth shattering though. But clearly the game isn't over yet.
 
Storm5 said:
Someone show the cmc to the guy who keeps questioning waves crashing into California with enough cold in the southeast ....


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Wow it's like magic, the shortwave crashes into California and we keep the big vortex in place over SE Canada and a big storm shows up. Sure, it's the long range CMC, but that doesn't take away from the fact that this pattern actually has worked and will continue to work in the future when we're in a La Nina w/ a +NAO
gem_z500_vort_us_34.png
 
GaWx said:
Imo, it looks somewhat better vs the 0Z/6Z GFS runs of yesterday for the chance for something for especially near the coast 1/3. Nothing earth shattering though. But clearly the game isn't over yet.
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No it's actually worse because earlier runs showed the trough becoming negatively tilted sooner and advecting more gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture into the Carolinas and GA. The increasingly positively tilted trough means we get a weaker storm and less time for moisture advection so there's more suppression
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow it's like magic, the shortwave crashes into California and we keep the big vortex in place over SE Canada and a big storm shows up. Sure, it's the long range CMC, but that doesn't take away from the fact that this pattern actually has worked and will continue to work in the future when we're in a La Nina w/ a +NAO
View attachment 2415
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Eric is going to be a famous met one day.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow it's like magic, the shortwave crashes into California and we keep the big vortex in place over SE Canada and a big storm shows up. Sure, it's the long range CMC, but that doesn't take away from the fact that this pattern actually has worked and will continue to work in the future when we're in a La Nina w/ a +NAO
View attachment 2415
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I'll tell you what, that big vortex does not want to move. With the NYD threat, the closer we got the more the models picked up it sticking around and the same deal has occurred with the mid-week system. If that sticks around, the SE Ridge ain't got a shot.

BTW I absolutely hate the Android spell check.
 
Yeah truthfully all that I've been seeing is a reload of the cold instead of a pattern change quite yet, slight moderation but it's simply just reloading. Maybe I'm wrong and that "fresh cold air source" is there in the future.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No it's actually worse because earlier runs showed the trough becoming negatively tilted sooner and advecting more gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture into the Carolinas and GA. The increasingly positively tilted trough means we get a weaker storm and less time for moisture advection so there's more suppression
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Not closer to a se coast hit vs the 0Z and 6Z gfs of yesterday? I'll recheck but I thought it was closer.
 
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