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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

At 45hr, already appears it is starting to turn, definitely earlier than 18z.
18z
namconus_z500_vort_us_43.png

00z
namconus_z500_vort_us_41.png
 
The phase is going to be earlier again but I'm just thinking at my frame if only it could phase where it's at (Hr 54).
 
Close to neutral tilt at 60hrs almost interaction between both waves, could phase and be neutral as 63hrs


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This thing has legs! Much earlier wave interaction. Many said it couldn't happen this early! Still a few days out! Bam!
 
Lots of convective blips in the SW Atlantic again. sfc low center well NE of previous 18z run.

Yeah that low goes from the S. FL coast like 150 miles Northeast in one frame, lol!
 
Said it before, give me this I don't care what the surface reflection is right now
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SC will be hit nicely, especially coastal counties. RDU to I-95 could be sweet spot. Wow didn’t expect this big of a jog west this early....

Ok SC the big winner this run!

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The low depiction is wrong with the double barrel. Expect actual precip further inland.
 
The h5 looked great for this system to go further west with the pieces of energy phasing even quicker on the 0Z Nam,compared to even the 18Z Nam. People though that it couldn't trend much further west.Again Northern Georgia ,Update South Carolina and maybe even Western North Carolina is not out of the game for snowfall!
 
SC will be hit nicely, especially coastal counties. RDU to I-95 could be sweet spot. Wow didn’t expect this big of a jog west this early....


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Yeah the overall synoptic pattern is somewhere in between December 1989 & January 1940, thus favors a bullseye somewhere over the coastal plain or eastern piedmont of NC as of now, the models will probably come towards that w/ time. As mentioned earlier, even as far west as Charlotte & Greensboro/Winston-Salem there could be snow if we keep this up
 
Haha the 3KM nam has NO idea what to do with the low. It bounces all over the place cause it cant figure out where to place it with that crud out in front. No worries. It's close to a coastal hugger this run, in reality.
 
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