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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

All next week and next weekend will be cold. Long duration of cold, locked in we need a storm lol.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Let me grab more examples, I could come up with more, but that would probably bore some of you to death, and after a while you should see the pattern, if anything getting a shortwave to crash into California is probably very beneficial for most of the board to score big. In a La Nina pattern like we have now with plenty of cold air and a very extensive, persistent vortex in SE Canada and the Great Lakes and dominant northern stream, and no blocking over north-central Canada or Greenland to create an atmospheric traffic jam over east-central North America, we have to get shortwaves to crash into California and cut-off from the northern stream to give us any chance whatsoever for a major board-wide winter storm. Sure, it could get milder in advance of the s/w but you do realize we have absolutely no chance of a big board wide event with the pattern we have now right? Just to reiterate, putting a shortwave into California would allow us to finally tap into the rich Gulf of Mexico and central-eastern Pacific moisture and amplify the southern branch of the jet. Without this critical piece of the pattern, a big, board wide storm is probably not happening, as we've observed with the last 3 busted threats which have all originated from shortwaves entering the Pacific NW or Northern Rockies...

Here's a 500 hpa geopotential height (contours), wind (wind barbs), and vorticity (shaded) animation via ECMWF's 20th century Reanalysis for the February 1973 snowstorm. Notice in the beginning a shortwave embedded within the subtropical jet, enters the North American continent through southern California & the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. The strong El Nino at the time likely gave a major boost to this shortwave and contributed to this s/w remaining very intense so far south.
February-8-11-1973-500-animation.gif



Earlier that same year, another major winter storm in early January, which produced a historic ice storm in the Atlanta metro area and resulted in several inches of snow in portions of NC & upstate SC. The shortwave which triggered this event crashed into California on January 5th, and a piece cut off from the mean flow and merged with another s/w over the east-central subtropical Pacific and lifted northeastward into the southern Plains and lower MS valley on the 7th, producing a lot of snow & ice from GA to the Carolinas in the process. This 500 hPa geopotential height, wind, and vorticity animation, like the one above, is also from ECMWF's 20th Century Reanalysis dataset.
January-5-7-1973-500-animation.gif


February 28, 1980, immediately before a major blizzard broke out in eastern NC (which dropped more than 1-2 feet of snow for a majority in the eastern part of the state), the shortwave that triggered the event enters the US through central California
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January 11, 1982, immediately preceding the infamous "snow jam" event in Atlanta, the shortwave that eventually produces the big storm is entering the US from southern California, the Baja of NW Mexico, and Arizona.
View attachment 2406


March 23, 1983, the shortwave that would set off a major early spring snowstorm in NC which dumped up to 10" of snow in Lumberton, NC enters the US through California a few days prior to the storm.
View attachment 2411


January 5, 1988, immediately preceding the huge/infamous overrunning event from Texas and Oklahoma to the Carolinas, the s/w which eventually results in a winter storm over the SE US is entering the US from California and there's a big vortex over SE Canada.
View attachment 2405


The shortwave that immediately preceded the March 1993 Superstorm which produced blizzard conditions from southern Alabama to the Canadian border, is entering the US stage left through California on March 10th w/ a healthy vortex over the Great Lakes
View attachment 2407


December 31, 2001 preceding a big board wide event on January 1-3 2002, the shortwave which eventually led to a big winter storm in the SE US is entering the US thru California and Nevada and there's a big vortex over SE Canada
View attachment 2404


Immediately preceding the February 12-13 2010 event which led to a big snowstorm from Texas to North Carolina, the shortwave which accompanied this storm entered south-central California on February 10th.
View attachment 2410
View attachment 2409


January 7, 2011, the shortwave that helped kick off the amazing winter storm that would come a few days later is entering the contiguous US through southern California.
View attachment 2408
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Adding the January 28-29 2014 event to the picture, which also had a shortwave enter the US from south-central California on the 27th a day or so before the winter storm developed in the southeastern US...
012706.png.gif


Here's the 500mb hPa composite for all the events I just mentioned (minus March 1993 & plus January 28-29 2014).
No surprises here, preceding these big, board wide overrunning events we have a shortwave enter south-central California a day or two before the big storm and there's a huge cold core vortex over the Great Lakes and SE Canada! This is the recipe you should look for to get a big dog for most on the board. The pattern we have now with northern stream pieces failing to cut-off after entering the Northern Rockies & Pacific NW will not work for those from Texas to North Carolina
compday.7A5qdgwbsU.gif
 
GaWx said:
Not closer to a se coast hit vs the 0Z and 6Z gfs of yesterday? I'll recheck but I thought it was closer.
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The upper level pattern definitely looked worse than the several most recent runs, if you want the coastal to come NW the trough needs to become neutrally tilted sooner, the 12z run showed a flatter, more positively tilted wave.
 
Storm5 said:
Damn next week will be cold


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Just looking at the GFS verbatim for MBY, seven consecutive nights of lows ranging from 19 degrees to 26 degrees. I haven't analyzed the highs yet, but those are going to be some really frosty starts as folks get back into the swing after the holidays.

--30--
 
Webberweather53 said:
Adding the January 28-29 2014 event to the picture, which also had a shortwave enter the US from south-central California on the 27th a day or so before the winter storm developed in the southeastern US...
View attachment 2416


Here's the 500mb hPa composite for all the events I just mentioned (minus March 1993 & plus January 28-29 2014).
No surprises here, preceding these big, board wide overrunning events we have a shortwave enter south-central California a day or two before the big storm and there's a huge cold core vortex over the Great Lakes and SE Canada! This is the recipe you should look for to get a big dog for most on the board. The pattern we have now with northern stream pieces failing to cut-off after entering the Northern Rockies & Pacific NW will not work for those from Texas to North Carolina
View attachment 2417
Click to expand...

2/10/10 and 1/10/11 also resulted from shortwaves dropping down the west coast if I remember right . I can't remember the rest of the background teleconnections though besides 2/10/10 popped a good western ridge after.
 
bud006 said:
At this point, I think the best bets for the next few days is getting a token bit of precip just far enough north (as the NAM has hinted at) before the remainder of the energy gets surpressed. Just not getting the right approach of the energy coming out of the West, as others far more knowledgeable than myself have explained (very valuable, too; thank you!).

The BIG story next week to me is the massive cold hitting the Southeast. Once that relaxes a bit, and if the indications of getting ridging in the west and/or shortwave energy entering the U.S. at a lower latitude (SoCal vs. the Pac NW), then we could get something that rides the southern jet and taps into the Gulf energy. Relaxing the cold does not necessarily mean we soar to 60 degrees a day or two later. It will take time to scour out the deep cold penetrating way south next week.

Either way, I'm keeping perspective. Yes, getting snow during this big cold outbreak would be amazing. To me, the 8 inches of snow I got at my house 16 days before Christmas (in a very unfavorable week climo-wise) makes any single flake or pinger I see the rest of winter just gravy.

--30--
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Oh rub it in why don't you. Just kidding, glad you cashed in on that one, after all the Atlanta area is so often left out in the cold.
 
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