• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Mr. Grinch said:
Oh man this will be west of 12z
056ad75887dbc5c8a2776badaddfe020.gif


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
you beat me to it but heck yeah this is definitely going to be west
 
Webberweather53 said:
Could you imagine if this beast got any closer, the minimum MSLP on this sucker would be the lowest on record at/south of Hatteras in January if the EPS control verified.
View attachment 2497

The current record holder as far as I'm aware is January 23-24 1940 w/ a MSLP of 978 hPa right over Hatteras. As a general rule of thumb/benchmark if you want the best snows over RDU we'll need to see this low end up about 50-75 miles or so just east of Hatteras, for those in the Triad and Charlotte, a track over Hatteras is needed to put you in the core, for those along I-95 at least 100 miles offshore, etc.
Here's the MSLP and 1000-500 thickness analysis from ERA-20C. While surface temps were plenty cold, the precipitation changed over to sleet during the height of the storm in RDU while those in Durham and Orange county got plastered w/ heavy/wet snow. This should provide a good general benchmark of where our low needs to be for each specific region of NC to score the most snow
View attachment 2498
View attachment 2499
Click to expand...
I'm going to say this kindly, and I'm also going to say don't get excited anyone, but that storm was also historic for Atlanta. I don't think we can rival that storm personally, but I wouldn't mind having a record broken by a low like that.
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
Wow, it appears that eastern North Carolina really got the shaft during the 1940 storm. I've never looked at a precipitation map for Georgia for the storm, but I know that it snowed as far south as my location due to the fact that I have a picture of my eight year old grandfather and his two siblings that was snapped on their front lawn after the event was over.
Click to expand...

Eastern NC got the shaft but most of the rest of the SE US got absolutely crushed. IMO, if you take an area weighted*intensity average of the snow/ice that fell in this storm in January 1940, it's by far and away the #1 event we've ever seen board-wide since at least the mid-late 19th century. Even Larry wasn't left out.
January 21-24 1940 US Snowmap.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, it's unlikely we see a drastic shift in the models, so if you are in the coastal areas of the Carolinas to Raleigh, you should be the ones looking at this storm. If not, let's root for snow there and maybe even down to Savannah.
Click to expand...
I'm going to be a little optimistic and include Charlotte and GSO. After what Webber said it's very unlikely that those areas will get the core but I still think that those areas, especially I-85 corridor points east might get something.
This could end up being like January 2000 only with the precip more east.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Eastern NC got the shaft but most of the rest of the SE US got absolutely crushed. IMO, if you take an area weighted*intensity average of the snow/ice that fell in this storm in January 1940, it's by far and away the #1 event we've ever seen board-wide since at least the mid-late 19th century. Even Larry wasn't left out.
View attachment 2500
Click to expand...
I wouldn't mind that I got 6-9" according to it
 
18z NAM is going to be close, it may not get there but overall at 500mb is looks improved at 60hrs compared to 12z with a sharper leading shortwave over NE TX and the backside energy in NE KS.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Eastern NC got the shaft but most of the rest of the SE US got absolutely crushed. IMO, if you take an area weighted*intensity average of the snow/ice that fell in this storm in January 1940, it's by far and away the #1 event we've ever seen board-wide since at least the mid-late 19th century. Even Larry wasn't left out.
View attachment 2500
Click to expand...
Impressive map. I believe that was one of the coldest months on record for parts of Georgia and probably other areas of the Southeast. I’m sure Larry can share the specific records with us.
 
carolinachaos said:
What's up with that GL low, in the past that has been our arch neimisis. Will that affect any thing wrt the system?

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Utterly and completely ignore it. Pretend you never saw it. It won’t matter one bit in the least.
 
1300m said:
I could see this trending far enough west that sleet significantly cuts down on totals along the coast, but all rain is not happening.
Click to expand...
A track further enough west would mean just rain for the coastal areas,which is a good possibility considering the west trends(before the energy even gets sampled).Climatology and possibly the storm track over once the Northwest trend ends just doesn't support a winter storm for coastal regions of Georgia,South Carolina or North Carolina(outside of the Northern Outer Banks).
 
Big improvement vs 12z with the interactions, timing in now less than 3 hours for a big phasing event over the FL Panhandle, this would tuck a coastal much closer to the coast with mixing here, maybe even RN.
 
Michael21 said:
A track further enough west would mean just rain for the coastal areas,which is a good possibility considering the west trends(before the energy even gets sampled).Climatology and possibly the storm track over once the Northwest trend ends just doesn't support a winter storm for coastal regions of Georgia,South Carolina or North Carolina(outside of the Northern Outer Banks).
Click to expand...
It's not going that far west
 
Michael21 said:
A track further enough west would mean just rain for the coastal areas,which is a good possibility considering the west trends(before the energy even gets sampled).Climatology and possibly the storm track over once the Northwest trend ends just doesn't support a winter storm for coastal regions of Georgia,South Carolina or North Carolina(outside of the Northern Outer Banks).
Click to expand...
Bro...how many times are you going to mention this?

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
El Kabong said:
Impressive map. I believe that was one of the coldest months on record for parts of Georgia and probably other areas of the Southeast. I’m sure Larry can share the specific records with us.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the second half of January 1940 was basically like this upcoming week. However, the temperature anomalies were much colder than what we will even see in the very near future. While our area did get snow out of this system depicted above, our biggest event in the first half of the twentieth century was the storm on 2/25-26/1914.
 
Michael21 said:
A track further enough west would mean just rain for the coastal areas,which is a good possibility considering the west trends(before the energy even gets sampled).Climatology and possibly the storm track over once the Northwest trend ends just doesn't support a winter storm for coastal regions of Georgia,South Carolina or North Carolina(outside of the Northern Outer Banks).
Click to expand...
I'm going to serve it to you raw: This is not Atlanta's storm. It never can be. Snow will not reach Atlanta in any way.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm going to serve it to you raw: This is not Atlanta's storm. It never can be. Snow will not reach Atlanta in any way.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't say never. I think he is wishcasting, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that there's a remote chance parts of the Atlanta metro get something out of this even if it's a dusting....maybe the S or SE parts of the metro.
 
Now need that low to go bout 300 NW in next 24-36 hours and watch SE and this board go bonkers....hey I'm gonna wishcast and watching models. It's just like watching your favorite team come back from a 24 point deficit with a quarter and half left in superbowl... stupid Pats!!!! #still angry
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm going to say this kindly, and I'm also going to say don't get excited anyone, but that storm was also historic for Atlanta. I don't think we can rival that storm personally, but I wouldn't mind having a record broken by a low like that.
Click to expand...

Yeah I don't think we're gonna be able to get this storm to come that far west, the negative tilt of the parent trough in the January 1940 is nothing like I've ever seen before, aside from maybe the March 1993 superstorm, if that. The amount of barotropic energy conversion this thing underwent is mind-blowing.
Here's a 500 hpa vorticity, height, and wind animation for the Jan 1940 event via ERA-20C so you can see what I'm talking about
Jan-22-25-1940-500-hPa-animation.gif
 
You can see the backing over the Delmarva at 850, this has the hallmark of a cold core conveyor setting up, maybe down in to SC just east of CAE.
 
1300m said:
Isn't it pretty obvious where the surface low should be tracking with a neg tilted H5 trough and this setting out there? If the low doesn't adjust significantly further west with this setup I'm going to have to go back to school for a while.

namconus_T2m_seus_50.png
Click to expand...
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I don't think we're gonna be able to get this storm to come that far west, the negative tilt of the parent trough in the January 1940 is nothing like I've ever seen before, aside from maybe the March 1993 superstorm, if that. The amount of barotropic energy conversion this thing underwent is mind-blowing.
Here's a 500 hpa vorticity, height, and wind animation for the Jan 1940 event via ERA-20C so you can see what I'm talking about
Jan-22-25-1940-500-hPa-animation.gif
Click to expand...
This is just :confused:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top