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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Michael21 said:
The recent trends with the Phase occurring faster and further west(before the energy is even sampled) could actually take the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina out of the game for snow. I could actually see Most of Alabama,most of Georgia,most of South Carolina actually getting snow with this system.This mid week system is looking more like January of 2000 and 1940 then December of 1989.
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I'm not saying this is likely at least yet but I agree that this scenario obviously can't yet be taken off the table. TBH, though, I'm not overly concerned about this right now. Maybe I should be? Nah. :weenie:

Meanwhile, the 12Z JMA is a tremendous improvement over the runs from 12 and 24 hours ago with a whopping 0.5-0.75" qpf NC FL (Phil!)/NE FL/coastal GA, SC, NC! Even after cutting the qpf in half since it is the wet biased JMA, this would still be a major hit.

The 12Z ICON pretty much held serve although with a very slight eastward shift of the main qpf area.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The biggest issue I have with the December 1989 comparisons is as I mentioned a day or so ago, the trough axis was positively tilted across the SE US which suppressed the low offshore, this time we have a trough that's negatively tilted and the surface high is weaker over the midwest
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This mid week system is much more like January of 1940 and 2000 than December of 1989. With the models trending towards the pieces of energy phasing sooner and father west with each of the model runs,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and even Western North Carolina still have a shot at getting snow.This midweek system looks atleast somewhat simlar to January of 2000 and January of 1940.
 
1300m said:
The funny thing about the NAVGEM is it looks almost identical to the GFS at H5. In fact, the GFS may look slightly better.

12z GFS:
gfs_z500_mslp_us_16.png


12Z NAVGEM:
navgem_z500_mslp_us_16.png
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No doubt. And if you look, and I'm sure you have, the height falls or baginess in the pressure field almost tell me that the low wants to be closer to the coast
 
1300m said:
The funny thing about the NAVGEM is it looks almost identical to the GFS at H5. In fact, the GFS may look slightly better.

12z GFS:
gfs_z500_mslp_us_16.png


12Z NAVGEM:
navgem_z500_mslp_us_16.png
Click to expand...
Some will call this wishcasting but it's not and I think you'd agree, with that H5 setup the NAVGEM actually has the slp in a more realistic position... GFS still struggling some with that imo
 
Webberweather53 said:
The biggest issue I have with the December 1989 comparisons is as I mentioned a day or so ago, the trough axis was positively tilted across the SE US which suppressed the low offshore, this time we have a trough that's negatively tilted and the surface high is weaker over the midwest
Click to expand...

I did the comparisons to argue that this setup argues for a closer low scenario to the coast because as it stands right now this phases earlier than the 1989 event...so you and i are in agreement here
 
Michael21 said:
This mid week system is much more like January of 1940 and 2000 than December of 1989. With the models trending towards the pieces of energy phasing sooner and father west with each of the model runs,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and even Western North Carolina still have a shot at getting snow.This midweek system looks atleast somewhat simlar to January of 2000 and January of 1940.
Click to expand...

January 1940 is probably too extreme of a case, the trough was negatively tilted from the SE US coast to north-central Canada and it's one of the most impressive negative tilts I've ever seen. The lack of North Atlantic blocking like what was observed in the January 2000 or 1940 cases makes me question if we can get this to come that far west but the large-scale setup doesn't favor a look that's as suppressed as December 1989 atm
 
GaWx said:
I'm not saying this is likely at least yet but I agree that this scenario obviously can't yet be taken off the table. TBH, though, I'm not overly concerned about this right now. Maybe I should be? Nah. :weenie:

Meanwhile, the 12Z JMA is a tremendous improvement over the runs from 12 and 24 hours ago with a whopping 0.5-0.75" NC FL (Phil!)/NE FL/coastal GA, SC, NC! Even after cutting the qpf in half since it is the wet biased JMA, this would still be a major hit.

The 12Z ICON pretty much held serve although with a very slight eastward shift of the main qpf area.
Click to expand...

With the pieces of energy trending towards phasing earlier and further west(before the piece of energy even gets sampled) and seeing that system tend to trend much further Northwest,even within 3 days,The Coast of Georgia,Coastal South Carolina and Coastal North Carolina will likely see just rain with maybe flurries while Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could see snow with the midweek system.
 
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Michael21 said:
With the pieces of energy trending towards phasing earlier and further west(before the piece of energy even gets sampled) and seeing that system tend to trend much further Northwest,even within 3 days,The Coast of Georgia,Coastal South Carolina and Coastal North Carolina will likely see just rain with maybe flurries while Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could see snow with he midweek system.
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Really don't think it can trend NW that far!
 
Michael21 said:
With the pieces of energy trending towards phasing earlier and further west(before the piece of energy even gets sampled) and seeing that system tend to trend much further Northwest,even within 3 days,The Coast of Georgia,Coastal South Carolina and Coastal North Carolina will likely see just rain with maybe flurries while Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could see snow with he midweek system.
Click to expand...

Okay, you've posted this several times now. I think we all understand.
 
Michael21 said:
The recent trends with the Phase occurring faster and further west(before the energy is even sampled) could actually take the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina out of the game for snow. I could actually see Most of Alabama,most of Georgia,most of South Carolina actually getting snow with this system.This mid week system is looking more like January of 2000 and 1940 then December of 1989.
Click to expand...

For out of the game, no not at all...the 850mb gradient/low stays south of the area as the 850mb low, unless we see a TROWAL take shape during the occlusion transition. Simply speaking, this is much much colder of an antecedent airmass and very dry initially..

I believe that the SFC low correction should be less than 200 miles offshore or a about a 200mile correction westward from current plots (closer to the Gulf Stream)
 
SimeonNC said:
How does the EPS look?
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Clearcut improvement with mean sfc low a little closer and qpf sig greater Phil, coastal NE FL/GA/SC/NC. Qpf on 0Z EPS was 0.1-0.25" coast. Now it is 0.2-0.35". 0.10" line is 40 miles further inland and it goes from almost to Valdosta to Florence to Fayetteville, NC. Still cold enough to the coast.
 
Michael21 said:
With the pieces of energy trending towards phasing earlier and further west(before the piece of energy even gets sampled) and seeing that system tend to trend much further Northwest,even within 3 days,The Coast of Georgia,Coastal South Carolina and Coastal North Carolina will likely see just rain with maybe flurries while Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could see snow with he midweek system.
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With all due respect you're either wishcasting or really underestimating how far west Upstate SC, North GA, Alabama, etc. are compared to even the Piedmont of N.C, let alone the coastal areas. For those areas to get anything there would have to be a very unrealistic early phase.

To illustrate this, find a map of the South, pinpoint places in the regions you said that will get snow and draw a straight line south. Compare that to places like CLT, GSO, RAH, etc.
 
Great discussion, really refreshing to see some familiar names and many I don't know. We're not far from seeing a quicker dominant coastal formation tucked in closer to the coast as the trend over the past several days is to take the shortwave neutral sooner. The natural baroclinic zone off the EC this time of year and the delta T with very cold air coming off the continent would argue for a track along the Gulf Stream, these storms like to travel the path of least resistance for intensification. Accumulating SN is likely going to miss the MA but many SE events do while socking SNE. Petersburg VA to Columbia SC and east is the current envelope for accumulating type considering small NW adjustments inside of 48hrs. The guidance still has about 24hrs to settle down, and by 0z 1/2 all energy in question should be fully sampled.
 
WeatherNC said:
Great discussion, really refreshing to see some familiar names and many I don't know. We're not far from seeing a quicker dominant coastal formation tucked in closer to the coast as the trend over the past several days is to take the shortwave neutral sooner. The natural baroclinic zone off the EC this time of year and the delta T with very cold air coming off the continent would argue for a track along the Gulf Stream, these storms like to travel the path of least resistance for intensification. Accumulating SN is likely going to miss the MA but many SE events do while socking SNE. Petersburg VA to Columbia SC and east is the current envelope for accumulating type considering small NW adjustments inside of 48hrs. The guidance still has about 24hrs to settle down, and by 0z 1/2 all energy in question should be fully sampled.
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Welcome to the board!
 
Stormsfury said:
For out of the game, no not at all...the 850mb gradient/low stays south of the area as the 850mb low, unless we see a TROWAL take shape during the occlusion transition. Simply speaking, this is much much colder of an antecedent airmass and very dry initially..

I believe that the SFC low correction should be less than 200 miles offshore or a about a 200mile correction westward from current plots (closer to the Gulf Stream)
Click to expand...

SFC lows that are less than 200 miles off the coast means rain for the coast of Georgia,South Carolina and North Carolina due to WAA(Warm air advection) and more prep westward,.While not a high chance as of now,I believe this system could develop in the gulf and hug the coast.Climatology overall doesn't really support a snow event for coastal areas.
 
WeatherNC said:
Great discussion, really refreshing to see some familiar names and many I don't know. We're not far from seeing a quicker dominant coastal formation tucked in closer to the coast as the trend over the past several days is to take the shortwave neutral sooner. The natural baroclinic zone off the EC this time of year and the delta T with very cold air coming off the continent would argue for a track along the Gulf Stream, these storms like to travel the path of least resistance for intensification. Accumulating SN is likely going to miss the MA but many SE events do while socking SNE. Petersburg VA to Columbia SC and east is the current envelope for accumulating type considering small NW adjustments inside of 48hrs. The guidance still has about 24hrs to settle down, and by 0z 1/2 all energy in question should be fully sampled.
Click to expand...
Welcome aboard and to the southernwx family... glad you found us!
 
I don't
Michael21 said:
With the pieces of energy trending towards phasing earlier and further west(before the piece of energy even gets sampled) and seeing that system tend to trend much further Northwest,even within 3 days,The Coast of Georgia,Coastal South Carolina and Coastal North Carolina will likely see just rain with maybe flurries while Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could see snow with he midweek system.
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it's not going that far west lol
 
Michael21 said:
SFC lows that are less than 200 miles off the coast means rain for the coast of Georgia,South Carolina and North Carolina due to WAA(Warm air advection) and more prep westward,.While not a high chance as of now,I believe this system could develop in the gulf and hug the coast.Climatology overall doesn't really support a snow event for coastal areas.
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Neither do 1050mb highs either...we're not dealing with a run of the mill cold outbreak, either.
 
SimeonNC said:
With all due respect you're either wishcasting or really underestimating how far west Upstate SC, North GA, Alabama, etc. are compared to even the Piedmont of N.C, let alone the coastal areas. For those areas to get anything there would have to be a very unrealistic early phase.

To illustrate this, find a map of the South, pinpoint places in the regions you said that will get snow and draw a straight line south. Compare that to places like CLT, GSO, RAH, etc.
Click to expand...

I believe when things are done trending Northwest,The core of the snow could be in Central North Carolina,Central South Carolina and Central Georgia with snow in Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and maybe even Western North Carolina while being too warm for anything besides rain for coastal regions of Georgia,South Carolina and North Carolina.
 
Michael21 said:
I believe when things are done trending Northwest,The core of the snow could be in Central North Carolina,Central South Carolina and Central Georgia with snow in Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and maybe even Western North Carolina while being too warm for anything besides rain for coastal regions of Georgia,South Carolina and North Carolina.
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Lol you've said this a million times already.
 
SimeonNC said:
With all due respect you're either wishcasting or really underestimating how far west Upstate SC, North GA, Alabama, etc. are compared to even the Piedmont of N.C, let alone the coastal areas. For those areas to get anything there would have to be a very unrealistic early phase.

To illustrate this, find a map of the South, pinpoint places in the regions you said that will get snow and draw a straight line south. Compare that to places like CLT, GSO, RAH, etc.
Click to expand...
I was discussing this with Forsyth I could certainly see a few flurries across parts of Alabama, Georgia, upstate SC and western NC with the upper level energy. It's very difficult though to advect coastal moisture from a SE forming coastal low well west and northwest. In this case that might be made even more difficult on the western edge with the arctic airmass in place. Now if an earlier phase occurs obviously that will shift the precip field NW but at 84 hours I doubt we would see more than 75-100 miles NW

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Michael21 said:
I believe when things are done trending Northwest,The core of the snow could be in Central North Carolina,Central South Carolina and Central Georgia with snow in Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and maybe even Western North Carolina while being too warm for anything besides rain for coastal regions of Georgia,South Carolina and North Carolina.
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No that won't happen, what supports your theory?
 
Michael21 said:
With the pieces of energy trending towards phasing earlier and further west(before the piece of energy even gets sampled) and seeing that system tend to trend much further Northwest,even within 3 days,The Coast of Georgia,Coastal South Carolina and Coastal North Carolina will likely see just rain with maybe flurries while Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could see snow with he midweek system.
Click to expand...
Wishcast that all you like, but it's not happening.
 
Could you imagine if this beast got any closer, the minimum MSLP on this sucker would be the lowest on record at/south of Hatteras in January if the EPS control verified.
eps_slp_c_east_17.png

The current record holder as far as I'm aware is January 23-24 1940 w/ a MSLP of 978 hPa right over Hatteras. As a general rule of thumb/benchmark if you want the best snows over RDU we'll need to see this low end up about 50-75 miles or so just east of Hatteras, for those in the Triad and Charlotte, a track over Hatteras is needed to put you in the core, for those along I-95 at least 100 miles offshore, etc.
Here's the MSLP and 1000-500 thickness analysis from ERA-20C. While surface temps were plenty cold, the precipitation changed over to sleet during the height of the storm in RDU while those in Durham and Orange county got plastered w/ heavy/wet snow. This should provide a good general benchmark of where our low needs to be for each specific region of NC to score the most snow
6z January 24 1940 MSLP & Thicknesses.jpg
January 23-24 1940 NC Snowmap.png
 
Arcc said:
Hmm should be some interesting members for the gulf coast. I wonder if we can hit a majority of the beaches for the second time this winter with measurable snowfall. When is the last time that happened.
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I'm curious about that precip along the gulf coast and if there is any convection going on in the gulf

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Mr. Grinch said:
I was discussing this with Forsyth I could certainly see a few flurries across parts of Alabama, Georgia, upstate SC and western NC with the upper level energy. It's very difficult though to advect coastal moisture from a SE forming coastal low well west and northwest. In this case that might be made even more difficult on the western edge with the arctic airmass in place. Now if an earlier phase occurs obviously that will shift the precip field NW but at 84 hours I doubt we would see more than 75-100 miles NW

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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Yeah, it's unlikely we see a drastic shift in the models, so if you are in the coastal areas of the Carolinas to Raleigh, you should be the ones looking at this storm. If not, let's root for snow there and maybe even down to Savannah.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Could you imagine if this beast got any closer, the minimum MSLP on this sucker would be the lowest on record at/south of Hatteras in January if the EPS control verified.
View attachment 2497

The current record holder as far as I'm aware is January 23-24 1940 w/ a MSLP of 978 hPa right over Hatteras. As a general rule of thumb/benchmark if you want the best snows over RDU we'll need to see this low end up about 50-75 miles or so just east of Hatteras, for those in the Triad and Charlotte, a track over Hatteras is needed to put you in the core, for those along I-95 at least 100 miles offshore, etc.
Here's the MSLP and 1000-500 thickness analysis from ERA-20C. While surface temps were plenty cold, the precipitation changed over to sleet during the height of the storm in RDU while those in Durham and Orange county got plastered w/ heavy/wet snow. This should provide a good general benchmark of where our low needs to be for each specific region of NC to score the most snow
View attachment 2498
View attachment 2499
Click to expand...
That would be one hell of a blizzard
 
Michael21 said:
I believe when things are done trending Northwest,The core of the snow could be in Central North Carolina,Central South Carolina and Central Georgia with snow in Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and maybe even Western North Carolina while being too warm for anything besides rain for coastal regions of Georgia,South Carolina and North Carolina.
Click to expand...

Good luck on getting a SFC low west of the 850mb and 700mb lows aloft
 
Wow, it appears that eastern North Carolina really got the shaft during the 1940 storm. I've never looked at a precipitation map for Georgia for the storm, but I know that it snowed as far south as my location due to the fact that I have a picture of my eight year old grandfather and his two siblings that was snapped on their front lawn after the event was over.
 
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