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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Euro pops the Low about where the GFS was. Sorry, everyone.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I still don't understand this insistence on a cold snap not lasting so long when all of the guidance suggests we're about to have our longest period of sustained cold since 2010 or late 2011.
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I just looked back to check on my thoughts concerning a cold period in December and it happened in December 2010. I think that I made the mistake of labeling it 2011 since it occurred during the next school year. In January 2010, Macon only had one day of a high above 50 from 2nd to 12th. Two of the nights during that stretch featured lows in the teens. December 2010 featured an impressive stretch from the 5th to the 16th, but it wasn't as cold as the period the prior January. If the models hold true, this upcoming period should feature a cold "intensity" far higher than these two periods.
 
As y'all know I will take the euro over any other model any day of the week, but also not clouded to know that its far from perfect and it caves to the GFS and CMC as well. The thing that makes me nervous about this one is that we are in a very progressive flow. ie cmc and gfs should do better than normal. I am certainly not giving up on this one as it won't take much to trend the other way, but it is a little concerning we don't get squat from this one. on to the 12z models tomorrow. lol
 
This one is likely over. We have pretty good model agreement now, being too little, too late. Here are the models from 00z tonight, all being close enough to each other with the formation of the low pressure. I'll likely throw in the towel by 00z tomorrow.

Euro:
Euro.png


Canadian:
CMC.png


GFS:
GFS.png


Navy:
NAVY.png
 
The time frame Eric was referring to will probably be our best bet, around Jan. 6th. He made some great points and makes sense. I just hope we can keep this cold air locked in place before a relaxation period falls on us.
 
Here is the 00z GEFS Mean to confirm the model consensus (right now) too:

gefs_snow_mean_nc_25.png
 
Shawn said:
Here is the 00z GEFS Mean to confirm the model consensus (right now) too:

gefs_snow_mean_nc_25.png
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That's anemic to put it mildly, but, things can change for the better. As you said, you were gonna hold out till the 00z model runs tomorrow. I concur, not looking good at all. You know how things can happen down here though. I'd just hate the fact we'd be wasting all of this cold air in place.
 
Backing up Eric , the CMC, GFS and Euro all are now showing a much better setup imo days 8-11
 
is it my imagination or did the Gfs sniff out the dryness/lack of storm and somewhat moderated cold spell first, before the Euro and other models? Maybe we shouldn't be so quick to dis.
 
hmm, almost looks like it wants to break out a little snow on the northern fringe, N. Miss, Ala. Still a virga storm right now. :)
 
whamby said:
hmm, almost looks like it wants to break out a little snow on the northern fringe, N. Miss, Ala. Still a virga storm right now. :)
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I actually still have little hope in this NY system. Nothing big but just maybe a dusting at best.
 
watch delta, Webb, etal, come in later to squish our little fantasies into mush...
 
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