Brett
Member
If I get what the euro shows I'll be above avg. I avg 5" a year in SE Va let the trends continue
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Reasonably speaking, I have never seen a winter in which we get a large storm and then an even larger one. The only exception is maybe 2010 and 2011.
Stormsfury
Member
Alright, bear with me as I put this togethed but unbelievable similarities with this setup with Dec 1989.
For time saving sake I will post only the reanalysis maps..
Dec 23rd 1989, 6z
Look familiar in the progged setup vs Dec 1989. Although I will believe that our current setup favors more neutral tilt based on today's modeling at 12z...(hopefully we will get a more favorable low placement).
12z 12/23/17
Low is ariund 75°W but at 500mb, understandable with a still slightly positively tilted trough. The 12z suite jas it going neutral around AL/MS today. The 1989 event was LATER in the tilt.
Now we head to 12/24/89..
Closer to neutral but still thumped Eastern Carolinas, East GA and NE FL as well as eventually SE VA then out to sea.
Our current 12z guidance setup argues for a bit closer tug to our surface low with a quicker phase and bombing of the SLP pressure system .. once all the convective feedback mayhem settles.
For time saving sake I will post only the reanalysis maps..
Dec 23rd 1989, 6z
Look familiar in the progged setup vs Dec 1989. Although I will believe that our current setup favors more neutral tilt based on today's modeling at 12z...(hopefully we will get a more favorable low placement).
12z 12/23/17
Low is ariund 75°W but at 500mb, understandable with a still slightly positively tilted trough. The 12z suite jas it going neutral around AL/MS today. The 1989 event was LATER in the tilt.
Now we head to 12/24/89..
Closer to neutral but still thumped Eastern Carolinas, East GA and NE FL as well as eventually SE VA then out to sea.
Our current 12z guidance setup argues for a bit closer tug to our surface low with a quicker phase and bombing of the SLP pressure system .. once all the convective feedback mayhem settles.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Jesus Christ, really man? It’s NYE for God’s sake
Cary_Snow95
Member
So I take it you’re liking RDUs chance with the nw trend. I’m trying to temper my excitement.. for now
Michael21
Member
The piece of energy have been phasing sooner and west each of the model runs.That's before even the sampling of the energy,which will be sampled tomorrow morning.I believe that Northern Georgia,Most of Alabama,central and Upstate South Carolina and maybe even Western North Carolina still have a shot .We are still 78-84 hours away from the system and systems trend west as we get closer.
CentralGAColdFront
Member
I may be wrong in this statement, but I think that it actually snowed in places like Panama City and Pensacola, FL in 1989 before South Georgia/Coastal Carolinas got clobbered. It doesn't appear that such a thing will transpire in this situation unless this system really blossoms to the west.
Stormsfury
Member
Also as the 1989 event trough went NEG tilt, look what happened at the SFC low ...
Absolutely started deepening rapidly and retrograded a bit as the occlusion started taking place by then..
Absolutely started deepening rapidly and retrograded a bit as the occlusion started taking place by then..
sigwx
Member
I'm not real sure of that maybe after the first 10 days of Feb. that may be correct
I like the potential of the players we have on the field but like you I am trying to keep expectations in check. It would be just as easy to see 2-4 inches of snow as it would full sun with a stratus deck on the eastern horizon
GeorgiaGirl
Member
IF the phase keeps trending earlier, more people are in the game. I'm not saying it will though and saying that everyone is still in the game is indeed wishcasting.
SimeonNC
Member
The realistic best case scenario for this imo would be a flizzard to maybe a dusting in CLT-GSO with increasing amounts as you go east to the coastal plain. I'm not holding out much hope for this storm for my backyard but it's still fun tracking it.
Storm...We'd need a phase to occur around Arkansas or Miss to help the interior portions of SC ,correct? I can't wait till our wave enters the US and we can get better model samples.Also as the 1989 event trough went NEG tilt, look what happened at the SFC low ...
Absolutely started deepening rapidly and retrograded a bit as the occlusion started taking place by then..
Michael21
Member
I believe the system could trend west enough to the point where the coast get nothing besides rain and maybe flurries on the backside.This system is becoming much more like January of 2000 and 1940 then December of 1989 by seeing the recent trends with the energy and storm track.
Stormsfury
Member
It did. We had a couple of precursor events as well much like Thursday night's light ice event and potential for later today/tonight.
My reanalysis comparisons above to our setup now makes me believe more are in the game this time compared to 1989
Cary_Snow95
Member
Ummm the new NAVGEM is amaze balls. I can’t unsee it. Low gets tucked in near the coast
Stormsfury
Member
Probably would work well. I still think Columbia [your area] has room to see something.
CentralGAColdFront
Member
The one positive that anyone outside of the coastal areas has it that situations like this usually tend to trend NW and the models have been adopting this trend over the past few runs, but I'm honestly starting to think that it may not be enough for everyone to cash in. I would feel better the further east that I resided in the region, but nothing is set in stone at the current moment. However, this has the potential to be an event where locations in Georgia get more snow than places of a similar latitude in Alabama/Mississippi.
I agree!
CentralGAColdFront
Member
GaWX or anyone else with an extensive storm history knowledge, has there ever been an event historically similar to the one that occurred in December 1989? I've looked before, but have never found anything remotely similar to the final snowfall maps or weather conditions that prompted the storm.
Stormsfury
Member
Thanks man. Check out my comparison with 1989 vs now posts.. i definitely argue for a closer low now after investigating setup now vs then
CentralGAColdFront
Member
I have no recollection of the event at all due to being only two, but the snow in Georgia stopped thirty miles south of my location and my father told me on numerous occasions that the only thing that anyone was calling for was just intense cold to occur. With this situation, I completely agree that the QPF field would possibly be more north.
Stormsfury
Member
I think Dec 1989 is the closest we have compared to everything else. Practically all our other hits are from s/w entering California
I would say if your NW of MCN to CAE to CLT to GSO and points South and East **IF** it keeps trending better we are in shot for sure. As of NOW** I would say RDU to inbtwn CAE and CHS to Valdosta has the best shot if it only trends a little better.
**I do think if it gets super better, maybe Southern MS and southern AL and NOLA **COULD** have a shot if we can pop the low in the GOM
**I do think if it gets super better, maybe Southern MS and southern AL and NOLA **COULD** have a shot if we can pop the low in the GOM
RollTide18
Member
NAVGEM wants to show the panhandle some love
NCSNOW
Member
I cant emphasize this enough, but exactly where that low forms off of OR exits the east coast of Florida , will determine where the precip line ends up getting cut off at. It will be a sharp one to no doubt.
Right now it's south Florida, a couple hours earlier on the phase and it will adjust north, hopefully sitting off atleast the central coast of Florida. My preferable is Jax, but that would be some serious wish casting and most likely not attainable.
Stormsfury map shows you the 1989 scenerio, I remeber wilmington getting a foot while I sat in Nash County and saw 5 mins of flurries. Painful. I ALSO REMEBER Jan 2000 and if you look back our sfc low popped off Jax. So their is a good metric or geographic pin the tail on the donkey target to keep in mind and root for. I'll settle for .10 making it to the surface here with 15 to 1 ratios and call it a win.
Webb makes a good point. I've just come in from outside and temp is 25 with thick clouds. I can't even see my breathe it's so dry.
Right now it's south Florida, a couple hours earlier on the phase and it will adjust north, hopefully sitting off atleast the central coast of Florida. My preferable is Jax, but that would be some serious wish casting and most likely not attainable.
Stormsfury map shows you the 1989 scenerio, I remeber wilmington getting a foot while I sat in Nash County and saw 5 mins of flurries. Painful. I ALSO REMEBER Jan 2000 and if you look back our sfc low popped off Jax. So their is a good metric or geographic pin the tail on the donkey target to keep in mind and root for. I'll settle for .10 making it to the surface here with 15 to 1 ratios and call it a win.
Webb makes a good point. I've just come in from outside and temp is 25 with thick clouds. I can't even see my breathe it's so dry.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Except...we're a few days away from go time. This would have reason if we were 5 days away but we're 3 days away and everything involved with this is going to be sampled pretty good soon. I think this can get further west but not too much further.
Stormsfury
Member
That Friday nothing was in the forecast. It clouded up here in my area (just NW of North Charleston)... then a couple of hours before sleet started ay 6pm that night in the 22nd, quickly changing to snow 630pm. Forecast 1" .. then 1-3" ... every cycle forecasted more as the event kept intensifying. It was catch up forecasts throughout the event
Michael21
Member
The recent trends with the Phase occurring faster and further west(before the energy is even sampled) could actually take the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina out of the game for snow. I could actually see Most of Alabama,most of Georgia,most of South Carolina actually getting snow with this system.This mid week system is looking more like January of 2000 and 1940 then December of 1989.
pcbjr
Member
Much the same down here; sleet, freezing rain, a good glaze and then it snowed from very early AM until late mid-afternoon; ended up with about an inch and a half of frozen water with snow on top. It never showed on any TV or newspaper forecast (internet was infant then) and during the event our local NWS, radio and TV were clueless ...
I can't see that happening at all. Best case is as Chris said, would be a small stripe of light snow across far southern LA,MS,AL before it intensifies around Valdosta, GA. Obviously I would love for your setup to happen, but it's less than 1% chance realisticly.
Last edited:
GeorgiaGirl
Member
We do also realize that if a Carolina Crusher scenario actually does by some way occur, it still doesn't necessarily mean that areas further west are going to get snow, right? If so it'd be an East Georgia and eastward scenario.
Michael21
Member
Three days away is still a lot of time.There have been systems that have trend well west before within the three day range and with the phasing concurring earlier and further west, could give most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina a snow event.We have seen many systems tend much further northwest as we get closer and I see no reason this would be different.
PennyForYoutThoughts
Member
I remember a met telling me long ago....winter weather in the Deep South is almost impossible to predict until it is right on top of you. I've never forgotten that.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
hmmm, decided to compare this recent CMC run with the last one that really gave interior Georgia and South Carolina anything and if anything were to happen at all, the trailer really needs to be more diggy and it's likely too late for that...
Cary_Snow95
Member
Food for thought. Last January we tracked a storm that showed sig snow in the coastal areas on Wednesday morning January 4th. By the model runs on Thursday the 5th RDU was dealing with mixing issues. And the final outcome was GSO getting clobbered when just two days before it showed an inch for them. It is still early
True we do see NW trends at times but that energy is gonna have to keep on driving big jumps west ever run and keep that interaction with secondary wave to be able to get a low on the west coast of G
FL going across to given anyone outside of SC, NC, and extreme east GA a punches chance its a lot to ask but hey that why we watch and wishcast
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The biggest issue I have with the December 1989 comparisons is as I mentioned a day or so ago, the trough axis was positively tilted across the SE US which suppressed the low offshore, this time we have a trough that's negatively tilted and the surface high is weaker over the midwest
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's what NARR shows from PSU e-wall. Sure the overall evolution is similar, but the tilting of the longwave trough and surface high intensity over the midwest are a few important wrinkles that could dynamically adjust this event further NW... Our trough is already going to be neutrally tilted by the time it passes the lower MS valley, the December 1989 event was positively tilted all the way to the SE US coastline which again shoves the low pressure track well offshore. There's a lot more room for this to move NW in this case relative to Dec 1989.
