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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Clayton Reid said:
Yeah, your right. We still thread the needle tho. The warmth is coming back already. We are just chasing this wild goose winter storm to oblivion it seems. And besides, what the chance that we'll even get a good storm after the warm up like the 93 superstore or March 1927? Probably 0 haha. We just suck. I'm about to give up.
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Our needle is pretty monstrous in a setup like that in comparison to what we're dealing w/ this upcoming week in the Carolinas w/ a possible coastal low
 
Clayton Reid said:
We better pray if that cold front Eric posted with s/w and cold shot even verifies given the fact that goofy GFS is showing it. Let's be real.. this is not gonna last too long. Hopefully it does. If it does, I will be truly amazed. But knowing the South, SOI spike incoming and Nina, we are liable to crash and burn. Even Eric mentioned an inevitable warm-up. So are we gonna keep chasing a wild goose till the end of winter with no results?
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Eric is really good with pattern recognition. The pattern will relax, but there is no sign of a southeast ridge or anything that would lead me to believe it will be too warm. A storm from the southern branch is our best hope of a big dog across the board. Sit back and let this play out.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Eric is really good with pattern recognition. The pattern will relax, but there is no sign of a southeast ridge or anything that would lead me to believe it will be too warm. A storm from the southern branch is our best hope of a big dog across the board. Sit back and let this play out.
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Yea we still have 3 months of winter to go and a good 2 weeks before a pattern flip. It will relax eventually and hopefully that’s when we will get our storm.
 
Stormsfury said:
The fact that the UKMET trended better and is at the very least, trying, saves a small amount of face. If anything, or usually, for those that don't know, the UKMET is generally pretty good at picking up on phase events.
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Careful. It used to be, the UKMET is more phase happy than the Euro. I have no idea if it has been fixed on either modeling.
 
Shawn said:
Careful. It used to be, the UKMET is more phase happy than the Euro. I have no idea if it has been fixed on either modeling.
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Not sure if there have been upgrades to it, but if there's phased solutions from other guidance, check the UKMET. If UKMET doesn't have it, probably a no go. If UKMET has a phase and other guidance trends that way...interest. if UKMET has a phased solution, others don't, unless there's a good trend towards UKMET, disregard.
 
Hopefully if we do get a s/w we can score something. Ugh. If only we could score sooner. And with these past winter's, I'm just scared of the SER because who's to say it won't come back with vengeance and we are over for the rest of the winter. We will see what happens and I will hold it to Eric if a s/w from California does the trip but if anything it seems the only thing we can count on is a big rainstorm.
 
I still don't understand this insistence on a cold snap not lasting so long when all of the guidance suggests we're about to have our longest period of sustained cold since 2010 or late 2011.
 
To my knowledge that's a pretty big improvement from last run on the ukie, but not 100% sure
 
Honestly, we'll find out soon. Dr. No will be very interesting tonight, This is the Wheelhouse of the euro so you expected to shine in this time frame.
 
Shawn said:
Careful. It used to be, the UKMET is more phase happy than the Euro. I have no idea if it has been fixed on either modeling.
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He's right. Saw the verification scores from nc weather year or 2 ago and ukmet trumps even the euro by a good bit on catching and forecasting phases.
 
deltadog03 said:
To my knowledge that's a pretty big improvement from last run on the ukie, but not 100% sure
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It is.. 12z UKMET was much further with the low, I think out in GFS land.

While I am on it, the cold the Canadian depicts on the 4th-5th is still insanely cold, even without snowcover.

Work at 9am, if I haven't fallen asleep, guess I will catch the EURO
 
LOL. at hour 48 the heights are again a bit higher over NE and that part of the vortex is leaving, meanwhile over the plains states the heights are lower this run. so far*
 
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