Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[Stormsfury]

Good points...chaser wave is getting pretty close by hr 60

Both waves smidge west both stronger.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Both the trailing wave and our main s/w have both slowed down and the trough south of Atlantic Canada is speeding up, both good signs

Looking much better for sure. However, we are running out of time, so let's see these pieces get together in the next 4 runs or very close and then you guys will be in business!

 

[ForsythSnow]

Much more neutral tilt and slower by 72. Looks close to a phase.

 

[Stormsfury]

Hr 66 even better, trailing wave reaching for the lead wave already. Much difference than 00z and 06z

 

[Webberweather53]

We've been headed back in the right direction since last night's crappy 0z suite. We're gonna need more of this where it came from

 

[ForsythSnow]

CMC way better looking. Low popping just off of Miami instead of east.

 

[Arcc]

We've been headed back in the right direction since last night's crappy 0z suite. We're gonna need more of this where it came from
View attachment 2482

That looks great for you guys.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Looking good, especially if this goes N.

 

[deltadog03]

Lead wave a smidge west of 06z

More good tilt at hr 66 on main wave and chaser is diving into

 

[Stormsfury]

GFS absolutely crapped the SFC low placement again though.

Hr78 IR Sat.

 

[RollTide18]

 

[Mitch West]

Great trend back, would seem like the best GFS run so far.. but we are beginning to run out of time for places who are a bit further inland. We would need to make some adult steps going forward for sure.

 

[PennyForYoutThoughts]

Canadian showing snow for all of southern Louisiana on wed. If I'm looking at it correctly.

 

[Webberweather53]

Great trend back, would seem like the best GFS run so far.. but we are beginning to run out of time for places who are a bit further inland. We would need to make some adult steps going forward for sure.

Yep we need adult steps like this from the Canadian to give us a really good shot in central NC

 

[RollTide18]

Canadian showing snow for all of southern Louisiana on wed. If I'm looking at it correctly.

Yes, congrats New Orleans lol

 

[BHS1975]

Yep we need adult steps like this from the Canadian to give us a really good shot in central NC
View attachment 2483

Need an earlier phase to get low just offshore.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yes, congrats New Orleans lol

CMC may try and suck in some in MS or AL if it keeps trending that blob of moisture north each run.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

A 947 L dead in the middle of winter in the northern Atlantic, even though it's probably a bit overestimated, is silly.

 

[Mitch West]

Yep we need adult steps like this from the Canadian to give us a really good shot in central NC
View attachment 2483

Living on a prayer here in CAE.

 

[RollTide18]

CMC may try and suck in some in MS or AL if it keeps trending that blob of moisture north each run.

Yeah @accu35 may wanna watch this

 

[Webberweather53]

GFS absolutely crapped the SFC low placement again though.

Hr78 IR Sat.

Definitely very strange to see no precipitation underneath those deep Cb clouds over the Carolinas on the GFS, yet the low-topped convection over the Atlantic is spitting out heavy precip. Even if you account for differences in brightness temperature due to the cooler temps over the adjacent continental landmass that still doesnt look right

 

[deltadog03]

Just looking at H5 maps I would think there should be a stripe of precip from LA, southern MS southern AL, southern GA and into the Carolinas *need a bit better phase quicker* *its trending that way* and I think it could trend that way.

 

[deltadog03]

GFS absolutely crapped the SFC low placement again though.

Hr78 IR Sat.

I agree 100% IMHO they are all, but trending better. I think there couild be a low pop in the GOM and then ride over FL to the gulf stream. Thats where the best baroclinic ribbon is and where we should see the best height falls too

 

[Arcc]

GFS absolutely crapped the SFC low placement again though.

Hr78 IR Sat.

I'd take that look and run if I was yall.

At least show one of me theads some vindication.

 

[Mitch West]

Definitely very strange to see no precipitation underneath those deep Cb clouds over the Carolinas on the GFS, yet the low-topped convection over the Atlantic is spitting out heavy precip. Even if you account for differences in brightness temperature due to the cooler temps over the adjacent continental landmass that still doesnt look right

So over those blobs you all are talking about, from what is reflecting on the model output, what you all are saying is that it would seem more precip should be getting thrown back into the Carolina's? Just trying to learn a little here.

 

[pcbjr]

Oh NAM why are you trolling Phil and Larry?

Perfectly good question with no veracious answer ...

 

[accu35]

Gfs is close the CMC of giving South LA some love

 

[RollTide18]

Just looking at H5 maps I would think there should be a stripe of precip from LA, southern MS southern AL, southern GA and into the Carolinas *need a bit better phase quicker* *its trending that way* and I think it could trend that way.

Yeah looking at the IR, RH, and clouds, you would think the models would be spitting some snow showes out but yet it's not.

 

[Stormsfury]

Hr 78 comparison.
GEM less amped than GFS

Hr78 GFS

 

[ForsythSnow]

A 947 L dead in the middle of winter in the northern Atlantic, even though it's probably a bit overestimated, is silly.

For anyone around during hurricane season, they would know that the GFS overdoes low pressure strength. Also, it just does it in general. Knock off about 30 mb and it's reasonable.

 

[Webberweather53]

There's a butload of mid-upper level moisture over the Carolinas (even in the DGZ) in spite of no precipitation being observed at the ground on this GFS run.

 

[Clayton Reid]

A 947 L dead in the middle of winter in the northern Atlantic, even though it's probably a bit overestimated, is silly.

The EPS from a few days ago actually had a 947 mb low in the N Atlantic.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

For anyone around during hurricane season, they would know that the GFS overdoes low pressure strength. Also, it just does it in general. Knock off about 30 mb and it's reasonable.

I'd say it's bogus but it's not the only model that's shown something crazy with it.

 

[Clayton Reid]

There's a butload of mid-upper level moisture over the Carolinas (even in the DGZ) in spite of no precipitation being observed at the ground on this GFS run.
View attachment 2484

Yeah there was a lot of it even further inland into Atlanta, Birmingham and even as far as Chattanooga on earlier frames.

 

[Stormdoc]

Wasn’t it the ocean convection that screwed up the models low pressure and precipitation placement for The Crusher? I know, probably wishcasting here

 

[ForsythSnow]

There's a butload of mid-upper level moisture over the Carolinas (even in the DGZ) in spite of no precipitation being observed at the ground on this GFS run.
View attachment 2484

How far NW could that moisture make it? Could all of SC and even most of central GA see something with that? I still don't expect anything, just wondering.

 

[accu35]

 

[Webberweather53]

Btw, the 700 hPa Q-vector convergence is more impressive over eastern NC than the Atlantic on this GFS run. Definitely suspicious...

 

[deltadog03]

Call me crazy, it's ok if you do, but I think if trends continue, I expect more precip in models and at least a weak sfc low that starts to pop over GOM and then up into the gulf stream.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yeah, lots of moisture in the DGZ here, but dry below it.