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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

93Storm said:
That long wave that you see won't be the storm system. There will be another wave coming down from Canada, and if there's a phase, the two pieces of energy will "fire" up a strong low pressure system some where off the east coast. Explosive cyclogensis.
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Honestly that's likely not going to happen. The Euro is phase happy which is why it got close a few times. The last run was a trend away from it.
 
  • The ECMWF and UKMET phase northern and southern stream short wave energy too readily over the entire forecast domain. (This is more true of the UKMET) Correction: Maintain separate streams unless the longwave pattern and trends from the short range models clearly support phasing. The longwave pattern may support phasing on days 4-5 if both the northern and southern stream flows are fairly high in amplitude and fit the mean upper pattern. Don't rely on the speed of an individual short wave. This can be a major correction that often makes you decide the fate of a major storm.
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Storm5 said:
Lol dog poop
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Ridge is way to far east. No hope if the western ridge sets up there.
 
Robert West said:
Yeh i definitely didn't see any good signs for the mid week storm. Maybe some good signs for the already dead NYE NYD storm. We already know what the Euro will do. Yall mise well get some sleep and look at it in the morning.
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I mean the Euro didn't exactly shut things down last night, wasn't good today but I don't think it's a given that the Euro is going to be horrible.
 
I think I just figured out why the CMC and Euro had storms at first in the first place. Because it actually had a late-ish phase in a period in which it's very phase happy. Like I said it seemed like the Euro trended away from the phase in the last run. So I'd be prepared for the Euro to drop the storm completely and make this another "It's kaput" situation late tonight unfortunately.
 
Congrats to Phil on getting ZR on 1/3 on the 0Z CMC! That's the kind of thing that can happen in a pattern like this.
 
All along I think the consensus has been it's all or nothing here. I will take the euro on the evolution of this overnany model, but I know the euro can easily trend towards the progressive models too. Cmc and gfs
 
deltadog03 said:
All along I think the consensus has been it's all or nothing here. I will take the euro on the evolution of this overnany model, but I know the euro can easily trend towards the progressive models too. Cmc and gfs
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Right, like I said, it's not a given that the Euro will kill this.
 
These crappy runs thus far aren't too much of a surprise, you aren't going to have much, if any moisture to work with if the s/w that's supposed to initiate the wintry weather is only serving to reinforce the dry northwesterly flow that's dominating areas east of the Rockies. Like I said earlier, while we can score w/ a shortwave that drops out of the N Rockies, we would need blocking somewhere immediately upstream over the Canadian arctic and Greenland to create a traffic jam in the atmosphere over east-central North America to slow the longwaves down and allow the accompanying surface low to quickly veer up the eastern seaboard and mutually amplify the mid-upper level wave. Since we don't have that atm, we need something that's already in the southern branch of the jet which doesn't have to dig southward so we can get southwesterly flow aloft right away, hence a s/w into California would be optimal. The eastern Carolinas stands the best chance to get anything out of a pattern like this (coastal GA & northern FL if it's cold enough), however chances aren't all that great to begin with
 
Upper level trough lurking off the California coast by day 9. Need this puppy to come onshore and push eastward into the four corners to give us a chance for a board-wide event because if this pattern continues to persist, we'll probably have a decent amount of cold air to work with. There's a little light and hope at the end of the tunnel
gfs_z500_vort_wus_36.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Upper level trough lurking off the California coast by day 9. Need this puppy to come onshore and push eastward into the four corners to give us a chance for a board-wide event because if this pattern continues to persist, we'll probably have a decent amount of cold air to work with. There's a little light and hope at the end of the tunnel
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I saw that too Eric. But let's be realistic, do you really think the cold can KEEP holding on like this to wait for that system? Probably not. It may be all rain by the time it gets here. I just don't see us being that lucky. It would be a MIRACLE if we kept the cold THAT long to be a winter storm by the time that thing got here. Gotta be realistic. We rarely, if ever stay cold that long in the South. Not trying to be negative but it'll probably be too late by the time that gets here. Any objections? If we actually stay cold that long for the shortwave from California to make it here in time, I will stand corrected, but as of right now that seems far fetch, especially since we know we can't get rid of the SER too long... We're just kicking the can at this point and continuing this wild goose chase. Again, not being negative, but just trying to be objective
 
Clayton Reid said:
I saw that too Eric. But let's be realistic, do you really think the cold can KEEP holding on like this to wait for that system? Probably not. It may be all rain by the time it gets here. I just don't see us being that lucky. It would be a MIRACLE if we kept the cold THAT long to be a winter storm by the time that thing got here. Gotta be realistic. We rarely, if ever stay cold that long in the South. Not trying to be negative but it'll probably be too late by the time that gets here. Any objections?
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Ugh, we've already discussed this, do I really have to explain this again... Ok yes, the cold air mass that's in place at the time this trough moves onshore California may not still be here, but in case you weren't aware already, there are seemingly incessant reinforcements with an active northern stream will likely replenish what we lost and drive another arctic airmass into our neck of the woods before that trough got here. We have absolutely NO CHANCE atm to get a **"major board wide event" (Texas to the Carolinas)** with the pattern we have now with dry northwesterly flow suppressing everything well offshore the SE US, this gives us a chance, however small it may seem to be.
 
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