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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Clayton Reid said:
I saw that too Eric. But let's be realistic, do you really think the cold can KEEP holding on like this to wait for that system? Probably not. It may be all rain by the time it gets here. I just don't see us being that lucky. It would be a MIRACLE if we kept the cold THAT long to be a winter storm by the time that thing got here. Gotta be realistic. We rarely, if ever stay cold that long in the South. Not trying to be negative but it'll probably be too late by the time that gets here. Any objections? If we actually stay cold that long for the shortwave from California to make it here in time, I will stand corrected, but as of right now that seems far fetch, especially since we know we can't get rid of the SER too long...
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That's why I'm (foolishly) clinging on to the mid week threat but that's a chance for a true board wide event albeit not a major one.
 
Well, it may normally not get that cold, but most models suggest a prolonged cold snap and have for a while...honestly longer than my memory even remembers.

And it's not really necessary for there to be a fresh cold air source outside of the deeper South.
 
thank you Eric everything you say makes total sense with the northwesterly flow suppressing everything! hope we can get a more favorable pattern at keep the cold air pumping down.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well, it may normally not get that cold, but most models suggest a prolonged cold snap and have for a while...honestly longer than my memory even remembers.

And it's not really necessary for there to be a fresh cold air source outside of the deeper South.
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The only cold snap that I can remember which remotely parallels this one is the one that we had in early January 2010. We had some cold days in both 2014 and 2015, but nothing was as prolonged as what's currently being depicted for next week.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well, it may normally not get that cold, but most models suggest a prolonged cold snap and have for a while...honestly longer than my memory even remembers.

And it's not really necessary for there to be a fresh cold air source outside of the deeper South.
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That's my point, somebody is gonna get screwed down the road.

This is one of the rare occasions where if any precip falls in this pattern, it will fall as snow. That even goes for places like Mobile.
 
This is just beautiful, there's a nice shortwave in the southern branch of the jet fixing to emerge over the southern plains inducing west to west-southwesterly flow from Texas to the Carolinas pumping in moisture from the eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico into the SE US right as another cold front comes down. The vortex is still there over SE Canada which will impart confluence on our s/w and probably preclude it from becoming too strong & thus suppressing the storm track to the south which is what we want. This is generally the kind of look we want to see to allow most of the board from Texas to NC to cash in w/ the pattern we have at hand...
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CentralGAColdFront said:
The only cold snap that I can remember which remotely parallels this one is the one that we had in early January 2010. We had some cold days in both 2014 and 2015, but nothing was as prolonged as what's currently being depicted for next week.
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I just checked and you are correct. It looks like a more intense version of January 2010. Really lately, all three of the GFS/Euro/EPS may be looking like that week that I saw. Cold, slight relaxation, then cold again.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I just checked and you are correct. It looks like a more intense version of January 2010. Really lately, all three of the GFS/Euro/EPS may be looking like that week that I saw. Cold, slight relaxation, then cold again.
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I also remember a rather intense period of cold around the second week of December in 2011. However, that also isn't comparable to what's being depicted over the course of the next week. I seem to remember that there was a minor ZR or IP storm around metro Atlanta at the end of the period in January 2010. I was still a student at the University of Georgia and one of my professors couldn't get from her house in Dacula to Athens due to icy conditions on the road.
 
1300m said:
Trending...
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That's actually not bad at all. It makes me wonder why people were saying it was bad.
 
1300m said:
I'm 100% in agreement. This is all about the evolution of the H5 energy, and which model has the best skill score at this time range? The Euro is identical to the CMC and GFS with the initial wave placement it is ALL about that follow up energy. If the Euro is wrong then this will turn out to be a positively tilted, nothing. If it continues to trend the way it has the past two runs, I predict RDU will have 6-12" of snowfall on the 00z run.
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Yeah if we play it just right then this sort of setup favors board members in the east-central Carolinas as the UKMET implies if anyone (granted its still 6 days out), but I'd personally rather have a nice s/w in the southwestern US generating a board-wide Jan '88-type overrunning event where most score big and the setup in general isn't quite as fickle as is often the case w/ Miller As.
 
We better pray if that cold front Eric posted with s/w and cold shot even verifies given the fact that goofy GFS is showing it. Let's be real.. this is not gonna last too long. Hopefully it does. If it does, I will be truly amazed. But knowing the South, SOI spike incoming and Nina, we are liable to crash and burn. Even Eric mentioned an inevitable warm-up. So are we gonna keep chasing a wild goose till the end of winter with no results?
 
The fact that the UKMET trended better and is at the very least, trying, saves a small amount of face. If anything, or usually, for those that don't know, the UKMET is generally pretty good at picking up on phase events.
 
It's beyond me why everyone goes ape over the SOI index, it's incredibly noisy and there are a multitude of other, much more adequate avenues to monitor/proxy tropical convection and its impacts on the mid-latitude pattern
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is just beautiful, there's a nice shortwave in the southern branch of the jet fixing to emerge over the southern plains inducing west to west-southwesterly flow from Texas to the Carolinas pumping in moisture from the eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico into the SE US right as another cold front comes down. The vortex is still there over SE Canada which will impart confluence on our s/w and probably preclude it from becoming too strong & thus suppressing the storm track to the south which is what we want. This is generally the kind of look we want to see to allow most of the board from Texas to NC to cash in w/ the pattern we have at hand...
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Yeah, your right. We still thread the needle tho. The warmth is coming back already. We are just chasing this wild goose winter storm to oblivion it seems. And besides, what the chance that we'll even get a good storm after the warm up like the 93 superstore or March 1927? Probably 0 haha. We just suck. I'm about to give up.
 
Stormsfury said:
The fact that the UKMET trended better and is at the very least, trying, saves a small amount of face. If anything, or usually, for those that don't know, the UKMET is generally pretty good at picking up on phase events.
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Thank you, small but subtle positives
 
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