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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Well folks....not going to work...it phases up nicely, just a bit too late. The lead wave was a bit slower and actually SW, but the chaser just doesn't get there in time...was actually about same timing from 12z, maybe slightly faster...unlike the GFS nam and cmc. I just don't know yall, I don't think its gonna happen...We shall see on the 12z runs for sure, but my optimism is going down quickly
 
RIP ?...What can cause the chaser to be faster than what is showing now? Seems the lead wave is doing what we want with being slower.
 
deltadog03 said:
Well folks....not going to work...it phases up nicely, just a bit too late. The lead wave was a bit slower and actually SW, but the chaser just doesn't get there in time...was actually about same timing from 12z, maybe slightly faster...unlike the GFS nam and cmc. I just don't know yall, I don't think its gonna happen...We shall see on the 12z runs for sure, but my optimism is going down quickly
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Its an absolute mess on the precipitation maps. Multiple areas of lower pressure, ew.
 
It looks similar to the 12Z Euro and closer than the 0Z GFS/CMC. E NC gets snow. Are we all looking at the same data?
 
Shawn said:
Its an absolute mess on the precipitation maps. Multiple areas of lower pressure, ew.
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I actually think the qpf and sfc maps should be a bit further west...the problem is there is so much vorticity flying all over the place
 
GaWx said:
It looks similar to the 12Z Euro and closer than the 0Z GFS/CMC. E NC gets snow. Are we all looking at the same data?
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Yes sir! you do get some precip, but it looked a bit lighter around you, unless I am seeing it wrong.
 
deltadog03 said:
Yes sir! you do get some precip, but it looked a bit lighter around you, unless I am seeing it wrong.
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Indeed, lighter, Chris. But there is still some wintry precip from SE GA through E NC. This is still worth following imo. I was reading similar kinds of negative things from folks on Friday with them ready to lock the thread and then they suddenly returned with excitement on Saturday. Unlike Friday, there is still measurable wintry, even though light, on land near the SE coast on the latest Euro. And though we're getting closer, there is still over 3 days to go. This could still shift NW. Is this Deja Vu all over again? I'm sensing people in GA/Carolinas taking out frustrations but not necessarily giving up yet. Get one better run tomorrow on any one major model & I expect many would return without hesitation and with optimism.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, lighter, Chris. But there is still some wintry precip from SE GA through E NC. This is still worth following imo. I was reading similar kinds of negative things from folks on Friday with them ready to lock the thread and then they suddenly returned with excitement on Saturday. Unlike Friday, there is still measurable wintry, even though light, on land near the SE coast on the latest Euro. And though we're getting closer, there is still over 3 days to go. This could still shift NW. Is this Deja Vu all over again? I'm sensing people in GA/Carolinas taking out frustrations but not necessarily giving up yet. Get one better run tomorrow on any one major model & I expect many would return without hesitation and with optimism.
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I agree and I admit I will watch the models until the end. Lmao
Funny thing is I still can't help thinking that the SFC map is too far east. Given the H5 map and the lead wave actually further SW this run and the phase a bit earlier, things still so far SE. We shall see
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree and I admit I will watch the models until the end. Lmao
Funny thing is I still can't help thinking that the SFC map is too far east. Given the H5 map and the lead wave actually further SW this run and the phase a bit earlier, things still so far SE. We shall see
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By the way as I just posted in the main January thread, this 1/3-4 threat has been on the EPS at least since all of the way back to last Monday! So, the threat just won't go away.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, lighter, Chris. But there is still some wintry precip from SE GA through E NC. This is still worth following imo. I was reading similar kinds of negative things from folks on Friday with them ready to lock the thread and then they suddenly returned with excitement on Saturday. Unlike Friday, there is still measurable wintry, even though light, on land near the SE coast on the latest Euro. And though we're getting closer, there is still over 3 days to go. This could still shift NW. Is this Deja Vu all over again? I'm sensing people in GA/Carolinas taking out frustrations but not necessarily giving up yet. Get one better run tomorrow on any one major model & I expect many would return without hesitation and with optimism.
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I watched the precip entering the coastal areas, and realized it was 0.01 and stuff like that, which, with the cold, does that really even reach the ground? The trends just reversed tonight. It's going to take a good bit for this thing to cause a large Winter storm in the interior Carolinas. At this point, I am confident in saying interior GA is completely out of it.


I'll continue to watch to learn more, and then use it as a lesson going forward.
 
0Z EPS/GEPS qpf are nearly identical on land vs the 12Z EPS/GEPS. They have between 0.1" and 0.25" right along the coast and lesser amounts inland. Also, the 0Z EPS actually has the 0.75-1"+ mean area a little closer to the coast vs the 12Z EPS. So, despite the 0Z GFS/GEFS being a disappointment trendwise, I hardly can call there a clearcut trend away from a threat in N FL, SE GA, and the E Carolinas based on the 0Z EPS/GEPS essentially holding serve with 0.05"+ qpf 50-100 miles inland on the 0Z EPS mean and it still being 3.5 days away.
 
Shawn said:
I watched the precip entering the coastal areas, and realized it was 0.01 and stuff like that, which, with the cold, does that really even reach the ground? The trends just reversed tonight. It's going to take a good bit for this thing to cause a large Winter storm in the interior Carolinas. At this point, I am confident in saying interior GA is completely out of it.


I'll continue to watch to learn more, and then use it as a lesson going forward.
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Shawn,
Both the 0Z EPS and GEPS mean have quite a bit more qpf than just 0.01" in the coastal strip. It is actually between 0.10"-0.25", absolutely nothing to sneeze at and no less than the 12Z versions for the most part.

Edit: Even the drier 0Z GEFS still has a mean of 0.05-0.10" on the coast.
 
GaWx said:
Shawn,
Both the 0Z EPS and GEPS mean have quite a bit more qpf than just 0.01" in the coastal strip. It is actually between 0.10"-0.25", absolutely nothing to sneeze at and no less than the 12Z versions for the most part.

Edit: Even the drier 0Z GEFS still has a mean of 0.05-0.10" on the coast.
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The low pressure centers were far off shore on the EPS mslp map I just took a look at, I will have to investigate.. but are you sure those do not include tomorrow's possible precip?
 
Shawn said:
The low pressure centers were far off shore on the EPS mslp map I just took a look at, I will have to investigate.. but are you sure those do not include tomorrow's possible precip?
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100% sure
 
And this likely is the run that will get some people excited again, the 6Z GFS. Well, I sure like it as it is the only of at least the last 4 GFS runs with 0.5"+ of snow somewhere on the GA coast. It actually has a 1" max way down in far SE GA south of Brunswick!

Edit: Folks, this run has 1" of qpf a mere 75 miles E of Jacksonville, FL, and Brunswick, GA! 1"! The potential to be something historic for portions of the SE coast is very much in play. Just another 75 mile NW trend would very likely mean wx history for some SE coastal folks with longtime records possibly broken. With still just over 3 days before it would even start, a 75 mile NW shift is a very realistic possibility. To think
that there is a nontrivial chance that an historic multiple inches of snow will be on the ground near the coast 3 days from now with hardly any of the general public realizing anything of the sort is such an enjoyable feeling. Of course, it could quite easily still end up as nothing. Regardless of what ends up happening and still though not modeled as a major storm, the current potential continues to be by a country mile the biggest threat of a major winter storm in this area in nearly 30 years. There could easily be not even another threat only a few days out like this on models for another 30 years based on climo. So, I have no choice but to at least soak in the threat while it is still there.
 
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GaWx said:
And this likely is the run that will get some people excited again, the 6Z GFS. Well, I sure like it as it is the only of at least the last 4 GFS runs with 0.5"+ of snow somewhere on the GA coast. It actually has a 1" max way down in far SE GA south of Brunswick!

Edit: Folks, this run has 1" of qpf a mere 75 miles E of Jacksonville, FL, and Brunswick, GA! 1"! The potential to be something historic for portions of the SE coast is very much in play. Just another 75 mile NW trend would very likely mean wx history for some SE coastal folks with longtime records possibly broken. With still just over 3 days before it would even start, a 75 mile NW shift is a very realistic possibility. To think
that there is a nontrivial chance that an historic multiple inches of snow will be on the ground near the coast 3 days from now with hardly any of the general public realizing anything of the sort is such an enjoyable feeling. Of course, it could quite easily still end up as nothing. Regardless of what ends up happening and still though not modeled as a major storm, the current potential continues to be by a country mile the biggest threat of a major winter storm in this area in nearly 30 years. There could easily be not even another threat only a few days out like this on models for another 30 years based on climo. So, I have no choice but to at least soak in the threat while it is still there.
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I get where you are coming from Larry. Most are greedy and want it in their back yard. You along with quite a few other deserve it though! Just like the Thurs/Fri threat, you'll probably see the thread die off versus you guy's area. Sadly. I'll check in time to time though. Hopefully it makes it up to Mike & Chris's way too!

SAV, CHS, MCN are rare to get winter wx in.
 
OMG, I'm hoping that the recently revered German model (ICON), though it appears to overdo precip., is onto something. Even if I cut in half the qpf of the 6Z ICON, it is still giving the NE FL (likely including even Phil to a decent extent!), GA, and lower SC coasts a major winter storm!! The track of the surface low couldn't be much better for this type of thing. The low forms near Grand Bahama and then moves N from there and strengthens to 997 300 miles E of Brunswick. And that, folks, is how you can get an historic SE coastal snowstorm.

*edited for correction about low track as it didn't form in the Gulf as I first thought
 
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NAM is not bad btw. I just looked over it and literally the Low is (with a higher resolution model) about to get yanked due Northeast with the Northern energy if it were to go out further. In fact, the low pressure is even closer to FL. Places like gawx, stormsfury would see snow from it.
 
^^ to go with the above, bands rotate counter clockwise on low pressure. they would spin right back into the coast at least until CHS/SAV even if it was trying to pull away.
 
GFS was not horrible either. I mean this still has a chance to come West in the 36 hours or so out guys. Just let it play out. Phases always involve timing, along with a lot of other factors.
 
Here is the 06z nam quikcly edited by me. of course it's off, im tired but the idea is almost correct in the circled area Notice the axis (the 540 line) is further West, again this run. furthest ive seen it so far.


hello.png
 
I just noticed that all four of the most recent German model runs had similar solutions/major or near major SE coast winter storm. I just saw the other 3 for the first time. And that is AFTER I cut the qpf in half.
 
GaWx said:
OMG, I'm hoping that the recently revered German model (ICON), though it appears to overdo precip., is onto something. Even if I cut in half the qpf of the 6Z ICON, it is still giving the NE FL (likely including even Phil to a decent extent!), GA, and lower SC coasts a major winter storm!! The track of the surface low couldn't be much better for this type of thing. The low forms near Grand Bahama and then moves N from there and strengthens to 997 300 miles E of Brunswick. And that, folks, is how you can get an historic SE coastal snowstorm.

*edited for correction about low track as it didn't form in the Gulf as I first thought
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I hope you get some snow buddy.
 
Shawn said:
GFS was not horrible either. I mean this still has a chance to come West in the 36 hours or so out guys. Just let it play out. Phases always involve timing, along with a lot of other factors.
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Didn't December 2010 blizzard do the same, it didn't come back till The last minute
 
GaWx said:
I just noticed that all four of the most recent German model runs had similar solutions/major or near major SE coast winter storm. I just saw the other 3 for the first time. And that is AFTER I cut the qpf in half.
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Good luck Larry, you deserve it, along with Storm and Chris. You guys put in a lot of your time and effort around here, which is much appreciated. Sadly, i think our chances here in the Midlands are dwindling. Never say never though with Winter WX situations like these in our area. We know how things can change on a dime, esp. with the situation being as futile as showing now. We have the pieces in play on the board, just have to time them right.
 
Looking at the last several Euro, GFS, and CMC runs as well as their respective ensemble means and comparing them to the last 4 runs of the ICON, the reason why the ICON gives parts of the SE coast a major snow is this:

ALL of the models have a sfc low near Grand Bahama Island. But the ICON is the only model that each time moves that low between N and NNE from there. All of the other models move it NE and thus giving less impact on the SE coast.

So, the big question in my mind is whether or not the ICON could have the right idea with that N or NNE movement of the Grand Bahama sfc low instead of NE movement keeping in mind that it has been doing that for at least 4 runs in a row. IF the ICON were to score a big win, it will quickly become my favorite model. ;) Any opinions?

Edit: fwiw, the 6Z JMA trended closer to the coast vs the 0Z JMA.
 
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GaWx said:
Looking at the last several Euro, GFS, and CMC runs as well as their respective ensemble means and comparing them to the last 4 runs of the ICON, the reason why the ICON gives parts of the SE coast a major snow is this:

ALL of the models have a sfc low near Grand Bahama Island. But the ICON is the only model that each time moves that low between N and NNE from there. All of the other models move it NE and thus giving less impact on the SE coast.

So, the big question in my mind is whether or not the ICON could have the right idea with that N or NNE movement of the Grand Bahama sfc low instead of NE movement keeping in mind that it has been doing that for at least 4 runs in a row. IF the ICON were to score a big win, it will quickly become my favorite model. ;) Any opinions?

Edit: fwiw, the 6Z JMA trended closer to the coast vs the 0Z JMA.
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You can add the NAVGEM. 06z took the SFC straight N then NNE and gets quite close to E NC.

The 06z GFS had something different I didn't see previously. Behind the trailer wave is yet another increase in vorticity just behind that at 78/84 hr and just adds fuel to the fire.
 
I’ve never wanted a SE coast hit more than I do now . When I first discovered weather boards years and years ago I discovered one thing . Larry never sleeps . He was always around to give the euro play by play late into the early morning hours. Over the years he’s spent hours upon hours giving euro updates on storms that only have a wintry component far to his north or NW. So I’m 100 percent pulling for a larry hit . No ass kissing here just the truth . If anyone deserves a winter storm it’s him .

Add tony and Phil to list as well


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Storm5 said:
I’ve never wanted a SE coast hit more than I do now . When I first discovered weather boards years and years ago I discovered one thing . Larry never sleeps . He was always around to give the euro play by play late into the early morning hours. Over the years he’s spent hours upon hours giving euro updates on storms that only have a wintry component far to his north or NW. So I’m 100 percent pulling for a larry hit . No ass kissing here just the truth . If anyone deserves a winter storm it’s him .

Add tony and Phil to list as well


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Agreed
 
Through 57 12z nam looks better to me with the chaser wave. Looks to be better positioned to phase also southern vort trying to go neutral if reading it right...
c74fc76b74ab3a01ba24d29a18aac064.gif


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Fwiw the NAM is definitely an improvement, trying to phase again probably too late but gives Larry and coastal sections some wintry weather
namconus_z500_vort_us_50.png
 
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