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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

There pretty good at doimg stuff like that lol. Maybe they wont read our comments.
 
The NAM, looks like a fail for the midweek wave; stringing it out already. Of course, NYE/NYD, outside a little moisture making it through the low dewpoints, is dead.
 
This is supposed to account for evaporation, so this is what you have based on the 12KM NAM for accumulated precipitation from NYE/NYD:

namconus_apcpn_us_28.png
 
Shawn, do you see any chance of a minor event to come back for NYE/NYD? Seems like little moisture is trying to make a come on Nam/Gfs Just a little.
 
Shawn said:
The NAM, looks like a fail for the midweek wave; stringing it out already. Of course, NYE/NYD, outside a little moisture making it through the low dewpoints, is dead.
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After the 00z runs tomorrow, if things don't trend better, i think it may be time to focus on the day 8ish potential if it remains. Eric's been alluding to this for a bit, he may be on to something.
 
Shawn said:
This is supposed to account for evaporation, so this is what you have based on the 12KM NAM for accumulated precipitation from NYE/NYD:

namconus_apcpn_us_28.png
Click to expand...
maybe a little Cumberland Plateau snow shower activity if this model is right... hey, CHA could sneak in a flurry or two.
 
Call me crazy, but i for thinks the NYE system will suprise someone with a little glaze. Not much at all but just alittle on the northen fringe.mabe further south.
 
DLI4SCwx said:
After the 00z runs tomorrow, if things don't trend better, i think it may be time to focus on the day 8ish potential if it remains. Eric's been alluding to this for a bit, he may be on to something.
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I posted in the January thread that the later range Euro was interesting in regards to all of that stuff. I don't want to get ahead of myself though. If this mid week system fails us, I'll slink away and not pay much attention to these threats until 2 days or so out from now on.
 
Shawn said:
I posted in the January thread that the later range Euro was interesting in regards to all of that stuff. I don't want to get ahead of myself though. If this mid week system fails us, I'll slink away and not pay much attention to these threats until 2 days or so out from now on.
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I concur with you on that as well, as far as waiting until it's about 2 to 3 days out. I also think, maybe, we shouldn't start up possible storm threads, until about that time frame as well. Just a suggestion obviously. Considering how model trends have been for us down here as of late.
 
Well, 06z GFS is going to be an improvement with the midweek wave. Likely too late, but an improvement.
 
Shawn said:
Well, 06z GFS is going to be an improvement with the midweek wave. Likely too late, but an improvement.
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Any improvement at all is a welcome sight. We need all the help we can get. I'm hoping today we can get something positive going our way with the model trends. Yesterday was not good at all quite frankly. I think the UKMET was not too bad though. I wish i could see what it did on the frame prior to 144hr.
 
At least I can see winds from the Southwest on this run, just a little bit too late to be big for the Carolinas; I think.
 
It needs to dig and start tilting a good bit earlier, but the precipitation in the Atlantic looks much better this run.
 
If it phases too early, don't you run the risk of it, coming too far North though, or in a setup/pattern like this, that wouldn't be of a concern? I am tired of the folks in the Northeast getting in on the goods.
 
DLI4SCwx said:
If it phases too early, don't you run the risk of it, coming too far North though, or in a setup/pattern like this, that wouldn't be of a concern? I am tired of the folks in the Northeast getting in on the goods.
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I'd rather see if hugging the coast at this point; because the trend is not our friend. With that said, this run was a bit wonky on the surface reflection.

Guess what though! There is a wave coming in off Cali this run, where it goes; who knows. Guess we can use the January thread for that one.

EDIT: Warm air can always get in the mid levels with a strengthening low's track too close. The NE misses out on this run, also.
 
Shawn said:
I'd rather see if hugging the coast at this point; because the trend is not our friend. With that said, this run was a bit wonky on the surface reflection.

Guess what though! There is a wave coming in off Cali this run, where it goes; who knows. Guess we can use the January thread for that one.
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Yeah, January thread for that one sounds good. So , the low was closer to the coast. Sounds good, but based on trends, i don't know if it will sustain that look. Hoping it's the start of a trend more close to the coast on all of the models. Would be fantastic if we could get it to bomb out.
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Yeah, January thread for that one sounds good. So , the low was closer to the coast. Sounds good, but based on trends, i don't know if it will sustain that look. Hoping it's the start of a trend more close to the coast on all of the models. Would be fantastic if we could get bomb out.
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I wouldn't say it was closer to the coast so to speak. I'd say the surface reflection was wonky with two low pressure centers, it's still a miss, even for the coast. Just a slightly better look at H5. It was able to get a lot more precipitation going. This close to the event, we need to see many more changes. The idea of a phase to help us out, or the idea of digging enough to pop the low closer to our coast, is waning.
 
Shawn said:
I wouldn't say it was closer to the coast so to speak. I'd say the surface reflection was wonky with two low pressure centers, it's still a miss, even for the coast. Just a slightly better look at H5. It was able to get a lot more precipitation going. This close to the event, we need to see many more changes. The idea of a phase to help us out, or the idea of digging enough to pop the low closer to our coast, is waning.
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Well, that's true. Let's see what today's model runs/trends hold in store for us. If they don't look good, i think we need to shift our focus on the period in time Eric was referring to. Especially since you indicated you saw a wave coming in via So Cal. That could be our ticket.
 
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