Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[GaWx]

The recent trends with the Phase occurring faster and further west(before the energy is even sampled) could actually take the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina out of the game for snow. I could actually see Most of Alabama,most of Georgia,most of South Carolina actually getting snow with this system.This mid week system is looking more like January of 2000 and 1940 then December of 1989.

I'm not saying this is likely at least yet but I agree that this scenario obviously can't yet be taken off the table. TBH, though, I'm not overly concerned about this right now. Maybe I should be? Nah. :weenie:

Meanwhile, the 12Z JMA is a tremendous improvement over the runs from 12 and 24 hours ago with a whopping 0.5-0.75" qpf NC FL (Phil!)/NE FL/coastal GA, SC, NC! Even after cutting the qpf in half since it is the wet biased JMA, this would still be a major hit.

The 12Z ICON pretty much held serve although with a very slight eastward shift of the main qpf area.

 

[Michael21]

The biggest issue I have with the December 1989 comparisons is as I mentioned a day or so ago, the trough axis was positively tilted across the SE US which suppressed the low offshore, this time we have a trough that's negatively tilted and the surface high is weaker over the midwest

This mid week system is much more like January of 1940 and 2000 than December of 1989. With the models trending towards the pieces of energy phasing sooner and father west with each of the model runs,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and even Western North Carolina still have a shot at getting snow.This midweek system looks atleast somewhat simlar to January of 2000 and January of 1940.

 

[deltadog03]

The funny thing about the NAVGEM is it looks almost identical to the GFS at H5. In fact, the GFS may look slightly better.

12z GFS:

12Z NAVGEM:

No doubt. And if you look, and I'm sure you have, the height falls or baginess in the pressure field almost tell me that the low wants to be closer to the coast

 

[SimeonNC]

How does the EPS look?

 

[Metwannabe]

The funny thing about the NAVGEM is it looks almost identical to the GFS at H5. In fact, the GFS may look slightly better.

12z GFS:

12Z NAVGEM:

Some will call this wishcasting but it's not and I think you'd agree, with that H5 setup the NAVGEM actually has the slp in a more realistic position... GFS still struggling some with that imo

 

[Stormsfury]

The biggest issue I have with the December 1989 comparisons is as I mentioned a day or so ago, the trough axis was positively tilted across the SE US which suppressed the low offshore, this time we have a trough that's negatively tilted and the surface high is weaker over the midwest

I did the comparisons to argue that this setup argues for a closer low scenario to the coast because as it stands right now this phases earlier than the 1989 event...so you and i are in agreement here

 

[Webberweather53]

This mid week system is much more like January of 1940 and 2000 than December of 1989. With the models trending towards the pieces of energy phasing sooner and father west with each of the model runs,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and even Western North Carolina still have a shot at getting snow.This midweek system looks atleast somewhat simlar to January of 2000 and January of 1940.

January 1940 is probably too extreme of a case, the trough was negatively tilted from the SE US coast to north-central Canada and it's one of the most impressive negative tilts I've ever seen. The lack of North Atlantic blocking like what was observed in the January 2000 or 1940 cases makes me question if we can get this to come that far west but the large-scale setup doesn't favor a look that's as suppressed as December 1989 atm

 

[Michael21]

I'm not saying this is likely at least yet but I agree that this scenario obviously can't yet be taken off the table. TBH, though, I'm not overly concerned about this right now. Maybe I should be? Nah. :weenie:

Meanwhile, the 12Z JMA is a tremendous improvement over the runs from 12 and 24 hours ago with a whopping 0.5-0.75" NC FL (Phil!)/NE FL/coastal GA, SC, NC! Even after cutting the qpf in half since it is the wet biased JMA, this would still be a major hit.

The 12Z ICON pretty much held serve although with a very slight eastward shift of the main qpf area.

With the pieces of energy trending towards phasing earlier and further west(before the piece of energy even gets sampled) and seeing that system tend to trend much further Northwest,even within 3 days,The Coast of Georgia,Coastal South Carolina and Coastal North Carolina will likely see just rain with maybe flurries while Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could see snow with the midweek system.

 

[Tarheel1]

With the pieces of energy trending towards phasing earlier and further west(before the piece of energy even gets sampled) and seeing that system tend to trend much further Northwest,even within 3 days,The Coast of Georgia,Coastal South Carolina and Coastal North Carolina will likely see just rain with maybe flurries while Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could see snow with he midweek system.

Really don't think it can trend NW that far!

 

[LovingGulfLows]

With the pieces of energy trending towards phasing earlier and further west(before the piece of energy even gets sampled) and seeing that system tend to trend much further Northwest,even within 3 days,The Coast of Georgia,Coastal South Carolina and Coastal North Carolina will likely see just rain with maybe flurries while Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could see snow with he midweek system.

Okay, you've posted this several times now. I think we all understand.

 

[Stormsfury]

The recent trends with the Phase occurring faster and further west(before the energy is even sampled) could actually take the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina out of the game for snow. I could actually see Most of Alabama,most of Georgia,most of South Carolina actually getting snow with this system.This mid week system is looking more like January of 2000 and 1940 then December of 1989.

For out of the game, no not at all...the 850mb gradient/low stays south of the area as the 850mb low, unless we see a TROWAL take shape during the occlusion transition. Simply speaking, this is much much colder of an antecedent airmass and very dry initially..

I believe that the SFC low correction should be less than 200 miles offshore or a about a 200mile correction westward from current plots (closer to the Gulf Stream)

 

[GaWx]

How does the EPS look?

Clearcut improvement with mean sfc low a little closer and qpf sig greater Phil, coastal NE FL/GA/SC/NC. Qpf on 0Z EPS was 0.1-0.25" coast. Now it is 0.2-0.35". 0.10" line is 40 miles further inland and it goes from almost to Valdosta to Florence to Fayetteville, NC. Still cold enough to the coast.

 

[RollTide18]

18z NAM is rolling

 

[SimeonNC]

With the pieces of energy trending towards phasing earlier and further west(before the piece of energy even gets sampled) and seeing that system tend to trend much further Northwest,even within 3 days,The Coast of Georgia,Coastal South Carolina and Coastal North Carolina will likely see just rain with maybe flurries while Most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina could see snow with he midweek system.

With all due respect you're either wishcasting or really underestimating how far west Upstate SC, North GA, Alabama, etc. are compared to even the Piedmont of N.C, let alone the coastal areas. For those areas to get anything there would have to be a very unrealistic early phase.

To illustrate this, find a map of the South, pinpoint places in the regions you said that will get snow and draw a straight line south. Compare that to places like CLT, GSO, RAH, etc.

 

[Storm5]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[WeatherNC]

Great discussion, really refreshing to see some familiar names and many I don't know. We're not far from seeing a quicker dominant coastal formation tucked in closer to the coast as the trend over the past several days is to take the shortwave neutral sooner. The natural baroclinic zone off the EC this time of year and the delta T with very cold air coming off the continent would argue for a track along the Gulf Stream, these storms like to travel the path of least resistance for intensification. Accumulating SN is likely going to miss the MA but many SE events do while socking SNE. Petersburg VA to Columbia SC and east is the current envelope for accumulating type considering small NW adjustments inside of 48hrs. The guidance still has about 24hrs to settle down, and by 0z 1/2 all energy in question should be fully sampled.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Great discussion, really refreshing to see some familiar names and many I don't know. We're not far from seeing a quicker dominant coastal formation tucked in closer to the coast as the trend over the past several days is to take the shortwave neutral sooner. The natural baroclinic zone off the EC this time of year and the delta T with very cold air coming off the continent would argue for a track along the Gulf Stream, these storms like to travel the path of least resistance for intensification. Accumulating SN is likely going to miss the MA but many SE events do while socking SNE. Petersburg VA to Columbia SC and east is the current envelope for accumulating type considering small NW adjustments inside of 48hrs. The guidance still has about 24hrs to settle down, and by 0z 1/2 all energy in question should be fully sampled.

Welcome to the board!

 

[Cary_Snow95]

NAM is stronger with lead wave

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Chaser is also faster

 

[Michael21]

For out of the game, no not at all...the 850mb gradient/low stays south of the area as the 850mb low, unless we see a TROWAL take shape during the occlusion transition. Simply speaking, this is much much colder of an antecedent airmass and very dry initially..

I believe that the SFC low correction should be less than 200 miles offshore or a about a 200mile correction westward from current plots (closer to the Gulf Stream)

SFC lows that are less than 200 miles off the coast means rain for the coast of Georgia,South Carolina and North Carolina due to WAA(Warm air advection) and more prep westward,.While not a high chance as of now,I believe this system could develop in the gulf and hug the coast.Climatology overall doesn't really support a snow event for coastal areas.